Kerala, parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu in for wet spell till October 24

OCTOBER 12, 2016, WEDNESDAY

Even as a limpid monsoon withdraws rapidly from South Asia, Kerala is in for a continuous wet spell which will last till October 24, 2016. Extreme southern Karnataka and western Tamil Nadu too will receive good rains in the coming days.

This will be because of a a cluster of thunderstorms that have drifted down the Arabian Sea coast of India after drenching Gujarat in early part of this month. These clutch of cyclonic circulations will drench entire Kerala, some districts of Karnataka ( Mysore, Chamrajnagar, Hassan, Benguluru, Mandya, Kolar) western Tamil Nadu (Erode, Dindigul, Coimbatore, Salem, Nilgiris).

Meanwhile the monsoon is preparing to withdraw from eastern India, Bangladesh too. The present cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh is a last dying gasp.

Tamil Nadu is waiting for the onset of North East monsoon. It should occur in early November, though Sri Lanka will see continuous heavy rains as thunderstorm activity has naturally increased around the equator after the autumnal equinox.

One has to wait and see if there is a repeat of last year when the Arabian Sea hurled two powerful cyclones (Chapala, MEGH) towards Yemen. Seems unlikely as global weather conditions are unfavourable at present.

July 30, 2016, Saturday, Monsoon Forecast Update

A Bay of Bengal depression will form off Andhra Pradesh coast on August 5, 2016. This system will move through Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and reach Gujarat on August 9-10, 2016. Very heavy rains possible in these areas.

Very heavy rains likely over south-east Rajasthan, Udaipur region, as the cyclonic circulation will intensify over the state till August 1. 

The cyclonic circulation will then shift to Gujarat by August 3. Very heavy rains possible in western Madhya Pradesh, (August 1-2), central Gujarat (August 2-3), Saurashtra-Kutch(August 3-4), Sindh (August 3-4).

Heavy rains will continue in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand till July 31.

Gujarat, Sindh Still Waiting For Rains

JULY 27, 2016

Half of the monsoon 2016 season has gone yet Gujarat and Sindh are still waiting for the rain gods. Neighbouring Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and most parts of Rajasthan have received good rainfall till now but due to the quirks of nature except for Dang and Amreli districts, Gujarat has been left mainly high and dry.

Looking forward, good rains are expected in central and north Gujarat on July 27-29. There might light showers in the rest of the state.

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"La Nina event, which affects rainfall and temperatures in the tropics, may develop in the third quarter of the year but it is likely to be weak and far less intense than El Nino that ended in May"

--World Meteorological Organisation 

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The next hope is the expected cyclonic circulation that is expected to form over the state around August 3. It will arise in northern Madhya Pradesh on August 2 and then drift over to north Gujarat on August 3. It is likely to hover over the region for days. It may bring good rains to north Gujarat and the parched Kutch region. Even Sindh may receive good precipitation then.

The GFS forecast model is forecasting the formation of a strong low pressure area off the Andhra-Odisha coast on August 6, 2016. It further says the system will cut through Andhra, Telangana, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and reach Gujarat around August 9 bringing heavy rains everywhere.

The European model ECMWF expects the system to form earlier, on August 2, near the Myanmar coast. It says it will then intensify into a depression/deep depression by the time reaches the Odisha coast on August 3-4, and knock on Vidarbha's door by August 6. Powerful system.

Looks like the monsoon is really going to change gears in August. La Niña effect?

But 10 days is a long time in weather forecasting. Let us wait and observe.

UPDATE JULY 28

Hardly 24 hours have passed and the GFS is having doubts about the expected Bay of Bengal low pressure area. Our advice would be take GFS forecasts with a big pinch of salt. The good news is the European model persists with the forecast of an intensification of monsoon activity from August 2. Good rains are expected in dry Kutch-Sindh region around August 4-5.

As the cyclonic circulation gives rain to Kutch on August 4, the much bigger monster system grows in the Bay of Bengal.

GFS believes this system will enter Andhra-Odisha on August 5-6, other models predict an earlier entry

No Major Storm Systems Likely In Near Future

JULY 23, 2016

The southwest monsoon in South Asia in 2016 has been weird. Though it has dumped satisfactory amounts of rainfall in almost all over India (except north Gujarat, Saurashtra-Kutch, Sindh, and western Rajasthan) there has been an utter lack of big rainmaker systems like low pressure areas and depressions (except for the recent low pressure system that drenched Madhya Pradesh for a week).

The weak low pressure area on the Andhra Pradesh coast turned out to be weaker than expected and will fizzle out soon. That has been the theme of this monsoon. Weak Bay of Bengal low pressure systems that die out too soon.

That is the reason why Saurashtra Kutch and Sindh are starved of rain this year. No low pressure areas from the Bay of Bengal. Adding salt to the injury the Arabian Sea stream of the monsoon has been totally sterile till now.

All this is perhaps because of the adverse Indian Ocean Dipole condition coupled with neutral ENSO conditions. It is hard to say when La Niña will arise. If lucky before the end of monsoon 2016.

Looking at the near future, Uttarakhand is in for flooding rains by July end. The little rain system which is presently hovering over Telangana-eastern Maharashtra will bring good rains to western Madhya Pradesh, south, central Gujarat and Rajasthan in the next 5 days.

Rain-starved Kutch region of Gujarat may receive some heavy showers on July 28-30, which may extend to southern Sindh.

The GFS model expects very heavy rains in Gujarat and Sindh around August 5, 2016. But that is a long way off.

All we can do is keep our fingers crossed and await an early birth of La Niña. On a positive note, a strong low pressure area is likely to form off the Odisha coast on August 1, 2016. How sustainable it will be, and where it goes remains to be seen.

The GFS model paints an optimistic picture. (See forecast map below). It predicts that by August 8, 2016, good rains will occur almost everywhere. How much of that happens is debatable. But the fact remains this forecast model foresees an active monsoon in early August. Two heavy rain spells to hit western India, mainly Gujarat. On August 3 and August 8.

The expected increase of monsoon activity could be owing to the rise of La Niña in August. Though opinions differ about it's birth two Indian meteorologists believe a weak La Niña could kick in during August.

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RAINFALL FORECAST 

July 23, Saturday: Telangana, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Goa 

July 24, Sunday: Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Bihar, Karnataka 

July 25, Monday: Northern Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, NE states

July 26, Tuesday: Western Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Eastern Rajasthan 

July 27, Wednesday: Central Gujarat, eastern Rajasthan 

July 28, Thursday: Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa, coastal Sindh 

July 29, Friday: Western Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa 

July 30, Saturday: Rayalseema, North Gujarat, Kutch, western Rajasthan, Sindh 

Andhra Low Pressure System Will Boost Rains In Western India From July 24

JULY 18, 2016

As predicted monsoon has brought flooding rains to northern India in the last few days. Another smaller system will bring good precipitation to Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal on July 20-21.

But the forthcoming low pressure area which will develop off the Andhra Pradesh coast on July 23, 2016 is the one to watch for. Though the low will weaken into an upper air cyclonic circulation as it moves inland, it will increase rainfall activity dramatically off the Indian west coast from July 24. It will bring good rains to Andhra, Rayalseema and Telangana.

Good rains are expected in Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, Mumbai and western India, including Gujarat.

How much precipitation actually occurs remains to be seen. Wait for updates.

JULY 19, 2016 UPDATE

Though the cyclonic circulation that will form over Andhra coast will cross over to northern Karnataka, Goa coast on July 24 it will move away west into the Arabian Sea. Under its influence heavy rains may occur in Konkan, Goa, Mumbai on July 24 and in Gujarat on July 25.

There is disagreement as to course of the upcoming Bay of Bengal cyclonic circulation. The GFS model believes it will bring rains to Andhra, Telangana, eastern Maharashtra, western Madhya and Rajasthan. It thinks Gujarat will be left high and dry.

LATEST ON LA NIÑA 

Not very good news for South Asia, I am afraid. Latest prediction by CPC, the US climate agency, says  at present conditions are ENSO neutral. That is La Niña has not developed yet. The chances of ENSO neutral conditions remains more than the possibility of La Niña developing till November 2016. In short the chances of La Niña this monsoon are receding.

The forecast map below shows that only in September-October are the chances of La Niña more than the chances of El Niño neutral conditions. If La Niña does develop in September-October we could see good rains in the dying  stages of monsoon 2016 in South Asia.

Disappointment For Gujarat, Sindh As Heavy Rains Stay Away

JULY 14, 2016

The unpredictability of monsoons was glaringly evident once again as all forecast models had predicted that the upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh-eastern Rajasthan would move westerly or southwesterly and drench the rain starved Saurashtra, Kutch and Sindh.

But instead the system moved away into Rajasthan-Madhya Pradesh leaving Gujarat and Sindh mostly high and dry.

The focus of this rainy season now shifts to northern India. Good, at times, flooding precipitation is expected in Chattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, eastern and northern Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Uttarakhand till July 18.

Kutch still waits for rains

Image credit: Scroll.in

After that spell peters out a fresh system will drench Odisha and West Bengal on July 19-20, 2016. By July 22 a low pressure area may form off the Andhra Pradesh coast which will bring heavy rains to Andhra Pradesh and Telangana till July 24.

Though the monsoon rains have been on the whole satisfactory, it is proving most climate model forecasts wrong. Most of these, especially the Canadian CANSIPS model and the American NMME model had predicted good rains in Gujarat and poor rains in eastern India in July. 

That is not happening. Gujarat has barely received 15% of the season's rainfall. And half of July is gone.

One expects August, September and even October (if forecast models are to be believed) will turn out better for rain starved Gujarat and Pakistan. And prove the climate forecast models right.

Meanwhile the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says there will be a decrease  in monsoon activity in South Asia till the end of July.

Strangely a low pressure area has formed in the Southern Indian Ocean (called 90S by NOAA) which which will move towards Mauritius/Madagascar in the coming days. It may even intensify into a tropical storm. After a week another similar storm system is likely to develop. Very strange as storms/cyclones occur in the Southern Indian Ocean during December-March.

GFS forecast shows total accumulated rainfall (in inches) till July 30, 2016. There are to be good rains everywhere in India except in Saurashtra, Kutch, northern Karnataka, western Rajasthan and southern Tamil Nadu.

Heavy rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Sindh till July 13

JULY 10, 2016

The center of attraction presently is the rain system which is flooding Madhya Pradesh since the last few days. The engine of this rain system is a low pressure area which was born in eastern Uttar Pradesh and is presently hovering above north central Madhya Pradesh.

Though this upper air cyclonic circulation will dissipate in a couple of days, the accompanying rain system will drench northern Maharashtra, central, north Gujarat, parts of southwest Rajasthan, Kutch, Sindh in the coming days.

On Sunday, July 10, the drenching will occur in north Maharashtra. On July 11 the heavy showers will move into central and parts of north Gujarat. On July 12 the action will shift to some parts of southwest Rajasthan and Kutch. Coastal Sindh, including Karachi is in for significant rains on July 13, Wednesday.  

The GFS expects 10-20 inches of rainfall in central Gujarat, 2-5 inches in north Gujarat and Sindh in the coming 3 days.

Saurashtra will be left relatively rainless.

Strange and unpredictable is the monsoon this year with renowned numerical forecast models like the GFS and European ECMWF struggling to give accurate forecasts for even 24 hours.

Meanwhile there is bad news for folks in South Asia and Middle East. The much awaited rain giver La Niña has not yet been born. Though the dreaded El Niño died an unsung end in May 2016, conditions are ENSO neutral presently.  In other words though El Niño is no more, La Niña is yet to rise. The Climate Prediction Center, an US agency says there is a 60% chance of La Niña in July-August-September and 70 % possibility during August-September-October. 

The moment La Niña is born and grows up South Asia is in for torrential rains.

Incidentally I happened to glance at the CFS forecast for South Asia for the months of August and September. I was surprised to see wave after wave of rain systems emerging from the Arabian Sea and hitting western India. 

The CFS week-by-week prediction was disappointing. It expects rains in Gujarat till July 15. After that all of India is in for below average precipitation till August 7, except for Bihar, Bangladesh, parts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh.

LATEST NMME FORECAST FOR AUGUST 

Below is the rain forecast (above, below average) for South Asia by the NMME, The North American Multi-Model Ensemble model. It reiterates below average (orange) rainfall in parts of central and eastern India.

CFS FORECAST FOR AUGUST 

Meanwhile the Climate Forecast System, CFS, paints a gloomier picture. It says only the southern states of India and Bangladesh will receive good monsoon rains in August. For the rest of India it is orange, orange. Below normal precipitation.

Low Pressure System To Drench Madhya Pradesh For Days

JULY 5, 2016

The Bay of Bengal low pressure system which traversed through West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand is presently beginning its tour of Madhya Pradesh. Flooding rainfall has already occurred over the state owing to its influence.

The heavy precipitation is likely to continue in the state over the coming 5-6 days as the rainmaker system goes around erratically over Madhya Pradesh. Earlier it was expected to travel to northern Maharashtra, Gujarat and then Sindh but it seems to have changed its mind if forecast models are to be believed.

So good rains are expected over northern Maharashtra in a couple of days but Gujarat will remain largely dry. Maybe some heavy showers in central Gujarat are possible on July 8 but Saurashtra, Kutch will remain rainless.

Another rain system will affect western Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan around July 12, 2016. Good rains are expected in Uttar Pradesh in mid July.

Most parts of Gujarat are in for a long dry spell. Heavy rainfall is possible in Sindh, including Karachi on July 13-14. Unless of course the unpredictable monsoon 2016 springs a surprise.

Gujarat, Sindh To Receive First Heavy Rains From June 29-30

JUNE 27, 2016

Progress of monsoon into Gujarat has been sluggish. It has covered half the state and stopped. This is because a big rain system moved into the Arabian Sea instead of moving into the state. It gave good showers to coastal Saurashtra and moved into the north Arabian Sea and lies as a low pressure area dumping precious water into the sea. The system will hover around and dissipate in mid sea without benefitting Gujarat, Sindh or Oman.

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The low pressure area over north Arabian Sea has intensified into a tropical cyclone 02A. But as we have predicted earlier it will subside in the sea itself in a couple of days. 

We are monitoring the storm and will update you on fresh developments.

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But rescue is at hand for parched Saurashtra Kutch Sindh. The Bay of Bengal will hurl another big rainmaker which will move through Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Vidarbha, western Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Kutch and finally reach coastal Sindh on June 30.

The Bay of Bengal is going to throw out another bigger rain system that will push monsoon into entire India. The system will end up over Rajasthan or Gujarat on July 5-6.

I guess this will because La Niña is on the rise. Drenching rains are on the cards in early July as monsoon will change gears.

Welcome July. Welcome La Niña.

La Niña to kick in from July, monsoon may shed lethargy

JUNE 22, 2016

After all the hullabaloo about a bumper 2016 monsoon, June has been a disappointment. Speaking mildly. Most Mumbaikars learnt that monsoon had arrived in the city from IMD news reports in the media. So low key has been the premiere this year.

The story is the same throughout India. No flooding incessant rains. No waterlogged metros. Nothing. It leaves a sinking feeling in the heart. 

But despair not........

All right. All right. We have said this a couple of times before. But so constipated has been the monsoon that the expected revival either fizzles out or does not occur at all.

Perhaps El Niño's ghost still lurks around.

But by end June things will look up. La Niña will arrive in style and unleash the rain gods from July 1, 2016. The Bay of Bengal will spawn a low pressure area off the Andhra Pradesh coast on June 30. Even the Arabian Sea will join the party with heavy precipitation in coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan by then. It remains to be seen if the rain system reaches Mumbai or goes off tangentially into the sea.

Our present prediction is from July 1, monsoon will start using its heavy artillery.

JUNE 23 UPDATE

Later data from forecast models support the rejuvenation of the monsoons by June end. In fact it might happen earlier. On June 27, the Arabian Sea will wake from its slumber and spawn a low pressure area in the northern part. It will not intensify into a depression or cyclone but it will giving a boost to rainfall/thunderstorm activity in the subcontinent.

Flooding rains from June 28 in coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, coastal Karnataka, Goa, Konkan and perhaps even Mumbai.

Things are going to really rock by June end.

Major monsoon revival on June 23-24, 2016

JUNE 18, 2016

A major rejuvenation of the monsoon in India will occur only on June 23-24. That is when it will push into Mumbai properly. Though heavy showers will occur in Konkan in the next 48 hours, they will not reach Mumbai before June 24.

Showers are likely in south Gujarat and Saurashtra on June 20 but heavy rains will elude the state till the end of the month.

The Bay of Bengal stream of the monsoon is bringing heavy rains to Andhra Pradesh presently. It will push into Jharkhand, Bihar, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Maharashtra in the next 3-4 days.

We will have to wait a week for the Arabian Sea monsoon to revive. The Bay of Bengal stream can do little on its own without a little support from the former.

Monsoon has been overall weak in June. One waits for NOAA's forecast of heavy rains July-October to fructify.

The good news is that NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in its latest assessment foresees very heavy rainfall on Indian west coast (mainly northern coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan) and in Chattisgarh, eastern Madhya Pradesh during the June 22-28 period. It also says Madden Julian Oscillation, MJO might strengthen over the Indian Ocean soon.

Monsoon 2016 Update: Arabian Sea Stream Will Stall Till June 18

JUNE 10, 2016

Though the monsoon has entered northern Karnataka, central Arabian Sea, Rayalseema and some parts of the Bay of Bengal, things will get stuck on the Arabian Sea side.

Rains will continue in Goa, Karnataka with showers in Konkan but for the next week the monsoon will rest on the west coast. It is expected to wake up and get vigorous only on June 18, 2016. That is what the NOAA forecast data says. 

After that it will enter Maharashtra, Mumbai with a bang. By June 22 it will nudging Gujarat. But till then relative peace and calm. 

The action will be seen on the Bay of Bengal side of the monsoon. A low pressure area has pushed into Myanmar and soon by June 12 it will start drenching the Indian north eastern states.

There is going to be no lull, no rest for this stream of the monsoon. It is going to go hammer and tongs in the coming days, enter north east India soon and hit Kolkata by June 17.

NOAA data says by the time the Arabian Sea branch rejuvenates on June 18, the Bay of Bengal monsoon will be racing through eastern India. By June 23 it might be knocking on the doors of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

The rain forecast map below issued by NOAA's GFS model shows the TOTAL RAINFALL till June 26, 2016 (in inches). It shows only western Rajasthan and some parts of Sindh, Balochistan which remain dry. All other parts of India and Pakistan will see rains, light or heavy. Rains have reached southern Oman too, with heavy falls near Salalah.

Oman, UAE Not Dry This July-October Says US NMME Model

JUNE 8, 2016

The Middle East countries, especially Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and parts of Saudi Arabia will not remain their usual rainless in the coming months in 2016. This is what the American climate forecast model the NMME predicts in its latest forecast issued today for July to October.

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The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. 

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These countries receive hardly any rains from June to November. The average is a few millimetres in these months. But it is perhaps going to be different this year if the forecast by NMME is to be believed. It predicts an excess of 10-30mm of rainfall in each of the months. Please see the monthly forecast maps below. The figures are millimetres (mm).

For a country practically dry during this time of the year, an inch or two is substantial. Perhaps it will be an overflow from the bumper monsoon expected in India and South Asia this year.

Only October will see a dry period except for parts of Oman. Saudi Arabia will see spells of rainfall from July to September. Especially southern parts of the arid country.

A week earlier the Canadian CANSIPS model forecast had predicted a similar wet scenario for the region. We had said in the article......"Surprisingly, Middle East countries generally considered dry will remain wet in the coming months. Oman, UAE and Saudi Arabia will receive much above the average precipitation for the months of July, August and September in 2016."

We shall continue giving updates for Oman, UAE and Qatar. Not only seasonal forecasts but track developments if they happen. We mean a tropical cyclone or an Arabian Sea low pressure area wandering off towards the region.

Rainfall activity to be vigorous over Karnataka, Goa coast in coming days

Image credit: Political Indian 

JUNE 4, 2016

The progress of the monsoon in 2016 will be undramatic this year. No drenching depression or tropical cyclone that will propel it into India. Just slow incremental progress. A tortoise not a hare.

Update, June 6: NOAA says MJO, Madden Julian Oscillation, will become active in Indian Ocean from June 8, hence monsoon will become vigorous soon. It also says possibility of a tropical cyclone in South China Sea is receding. 

Numerical weather prediction, NWP, models have been giving out erratic, inconsistent predictions. Just yesterday the European model hinted at a depression or a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. In today's data, there is none.

After analysing data from various models we have some insight into what is going to happen on the monsoon front in the coming days.

Rainfall activity after a few days will fizzle out on the eastern coast states like Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Though the northeastern states will remain wet. Monsoon should enter there in a few days.

Though some models see a different future for Andhra Pradesh. According to them rainfall will remain over the state till June 10 when a low pressure area may form off the coast. The system will move through the Bay of Bengal and drench northern Myanmar/Chittagong area after a couple of days.

But this scenario is not supported by the multi-model ensemble forecast. The rainfall forecast map valid till June 9 shows significant precipitation only in Karnataka, Kerala and Indian north eastern states.

The focus of attention will be the Arabian Sea coast of India. Karnataka is going to be pounded by rains for days. Coastal Karnataka and Goa will see increasing rainfall activity. This will slowly spread to Konkan and then Mumbai.

Monsoon may knock on its door on June 13-14 along with rest of Maharashtra. Gujarat on June 18-20.

Looking at rainfall forecast maps issued by NOAA's model we can say that by June 20, the rainy season will have started in Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. We are talking here of the northern limit of monsoon's progress.

Heavy Rains Likely In Andhra, Telangana, Rayalseema In Coming Days

JUNE 3, 2016

As the monsoons are expected to hit Kerala in the next few days, the engine that will pull the rains into southern and eastern India is an upper air cyclonic circulation that will move over Andhra Pradesh on June 4, 2016.

The system will form over the state tomorrow, then  meander over Telangana, Rayalseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh till June 8-9. It will then move back over Visakhapatnam area and intensify.

It is expected to move back into the Bay of Bengal on June 11. It may slam into the Chittagong area of Bangladesh on June 12-13 after intensifying into a depression. Maybe even a tropical cyclone.

The south west monsoon will take awhile to reach western India. In the absence of any low/cyclonic circulations things will be relatively quieter on the western coast of India. Though rainfall activity will rise gradually. Indications are things will get hot, rather wet, around June 10 as a massive cluster of thunderstorms will form in the Arabian Sea off Konkan coast.

The satellite image shows the emerging circulation over Andhra Pradesh 

European Forecast Model Hints At Heavy Rains In Andhra On June 8

JUNE 1, 2016

While the American GFS predicts heavy rains in Mumbai, Gujarat around June 10, 2016, the European ECMWF model is betting on Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on June 7-8.

It expects a low pressure area to develop on the Andhra coast on June 7, which will bring heavy precipitation to Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha and West Bengal.

Leading forecast models are thus disagreeing where the monsoons will change gears: West coast or east coast of India.

Keep in touch for updates.

Weather Outlook For India, South Asia, Middle East In Early June 2016

I

MAY 31, 2016

The picture remains hazy with little agreement amongst major NWP models. But from what we gathered, two areas will be of interest in India, concerning monsoons. One is western India, Mumbai, Arabian Sea coastal areas and Gujarat. The second is Andhra Pradesh.

In both these regions there is a possibility of vigorous monsoon activity in early June.

WESTERN INDIA

The GFS still persists with an Arabian Sea trough bringing heavy precipitation to western India around June 10-13, 2016. Heavy pre-monsoon showers may occur in Mumbai on June 5-6. Drought hit Vidarbha will receive heavy rains on June 8-9.

Coastal Karnataka will get drenched on June 4 because of a rain-bearing trough in the Arabian Sea.

The monsoon onset in Mumbai will occur on June 12, 2016 with flooding rains. All because of the Arabian Sea trough which will form in a few days.

After Mumbai, the monsoons will hit Gujarat on June 14.

ANDHRA PRADESH 

The European model foresees an upper air cyclonic circulation over the Andhra coast near Visakhapatnam on June 6-7. It will bring good rains to Andhra Pradesh and Telangana from June 7 onwards. 

It might so happen that we might be staring at a depression on the Andhra Pradesh coast on June 7. Not a mere cyclonic circulation, but even may be tropical cyclone KYANT. Too early to say now.

We continuously analyse weather charts and will keep you informed of developments.

SOUTH CHINA SEA

Another interesting possible development could be the first typhoon in the Western Pacific Ocean in 2016. There is a strong likelihood of typhoon NEPARTAK forming in the South China Sea around June 10. It could strongly affect Taiwan and eastern coast of Japan.

Monsoons Will Arrive In Mumbai, Gujarat By June 12, 2016

Image credit: Deccan Chronicle 

MAY 30, 2016

The South West Monsoon will arrive in Mumbai and parts of Gujarat around June 10, 2016. With a bang. With flooding rains.

Konkan coast, Mumbai city, South Gujarat and Saurashtra will receive very heavy rainfall from June 10 onwards.

This will be possible because of an off shore trough that will form in the Arabian Sea off the western coast of India in the first week of June.

There will be very good precipitation in southeastern Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh on June 13-14 as the low will move over these regions. It could even reach Delhi by June 14-15, bringing heavy showers in the capital.

Mumbai and Maharashtra along with northern Karnataka will receive good pre-monsoon showers between June 4-6.

Lately there have been apprehensions about monsoon 2016 after the Indian Meteorological Department said that the onset in Kerala could be delayed. The searing heat waves in the country along with drought like conditions has most people yearning for the rain gods.

Most climate forecast models and the IMD have predicted a good monsoon this year.

The present tardiness on the part of monsoons is because of the lingering after effects of the now deceased El Niño. Absence of the Madden Julian Oscillation and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole has made things worse.

But as La Niña regenerates by July, the rainfall outlook for India will dramatically improve. Experts are warning of flooding rains in July-October as La Niña goes on the rampage.

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Heavy Rains Possible In Mumbai, Gujarat On June 10, 2016

MAY 29, 2016

XTREME WEATHER POSSIBILITY 

It is quite possible that heavy to very heavy rains may lash Mumbai and parts of Gujarat around June 10-12, 2016. Forecast models hint at flooding rains something in the range of 5-6 inches.

This will be possible because of increasing stormy monsoon activity in the West Indian Ocean near the Somalia coast which all numerical weather prediction models say will happen in early June.

This stormy system will throw out  a trough that will gradually migrate to the Indian west coast by June 10.

It is possible the circulation may linger over the Mumbai-Gujarat area for 4-5 days hence flooding could occur in many places.

There are still more than 10 days to go, but it is a real possibility. We shall track the forecasts and keep you updated. At the earliest.

Monsoon To Hit Mumbai On June 10, 2016

Extreme Weather, Monsoon, Cyclone Possibilities May (20-31) 2016 Updates

MAY 28, 2016

ITS RAINING IN KARNATAKA NOW, 1730 HRS IST

Satellite image reveals very heavy downpour in Karnataka, near Bangalore and Mysore. Also at Tiruppur. Showers also in coastal Andhra.

MAY 28, 2016

ITS RAINING CATS AND DOGS IN ANDHRA NOW

Highlight of today is the localised heavy rainfall in Visakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh since today morning. It has been raining heavily in the area for hours. This is because of an upper air cyclonic circulation over the area. This is going to hover around Telangana, Chattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh bringing localised thunderstorms.

Also the map below the satellite image shows where and how much (inches) will it rain till today, May 28, midnight IST 

MAY 27, 2016

MONSOON MAY BE FURTHER DELAYED IN JUNE

MONSOON MAY BE FURTHER DELAYED 

The IITM (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) suspects that the onset of monsoon along the Kerala coast may not happen even during June 5 to 10 despite some of the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle falling into place by then.

It remains to be seen if, as is being forecast by some models, a cyclonic circulation potentially taking shape off the Konkan coast and moving away generally towards Oman could prove the disruptor.

Other likely disruptive features include a cyclone (typhoon) each being forecast to erupt over the West Indian Ocean and the North-West Pacific during this week and the next.

From BUSINESSLINE (http://goo.gl/uBCfUA)

MAY 27, 2016

GLOBAL EFFECTS OF EL NINO, LA NIÑA 

El Niño died this May. It had been strong since two years. And India suffered as a result. It had two consecutive lousy monsoons in 2014, 2015.

The maps show the effects of the two phenomena. Hopefully with La Niña on the ascendancy, India will have a good monsoon in 2016.

MAY 27, 2016

BAD MAN EL NINO IS DEAD. MONSOONS WILL ENVIGORATE IN JULY 

Good riddance to El Niño. Most international climate agencies say it is dead. They also say La Niña, the fairy godmother for a good monsoon is making a comeback.

But the ill effects of ENSO, El Niño Southern Oscillation, will be felt on monsoon rains till June. Rainfall activity will be curbed as a result. We talked of the dismal CFS forecast till June 22 yesterday.

But once La Niña gets going there may be flooding rains from July till October in India, Pakistan and even the Middle East (Oman, UAE) as a monsoon spillover effect. Long live La Niña!

The CPC diagram shows the dead of El Niño and the rise of La Niña.

MAY 26, 2016

CFS HAS WORRYING NEWS ABOUT MONSOON RAINS TILL JUNE 22, 2016

Just a glance at the latest weekly rainfall forecast from May 25 to June 22, 2016 by the CFS model gives us reason to be gloomy. Most of India barring some areas is expected to receive below average rainfall.

Forecasts by western climate forecast agencies and the Indian Met. has led us to expect a bumper monsoon this year. Well, the start at least is going to be inauspicious if one looks at CFS data.

In the forecast maps for next four weeks the green color denotes above average rainfall. The ominous orange color shows below average rains. The white color denotes average precipitation at the place at this time of the year.

Looking at the maps we gather that barring Gujarat, Bihar, Uttarakhand, North Eastern states, some parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh there will be poor rainfall. The rain deficit is particularly high in western and southern India especially Kerala.

What is even gloomier is that both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal show vast stretches of orange. Meaning rainfall activity is poor even in the seas.

Hope we have bumper July rains. Or a drenching depression or two would be welcome (There is a possibility of a depression near the Andhra coast on June 4).

Rains in June are expected to be poor. They are expected to dramatically rise in July-August as the good effects of the unlamented demise of El Niño start kicking in.

MAY 26, 2016

GFS INDICATES TWO STORM POSSIBILITIES AROUND JUNE 10

The first is a depression affecting southern China on the Hong Kong-Hainan coast in the South China Sea. Later GFS data says it's going to be a full blown tropical cyclone (Typhoon NEPARTAK) that may smash through Taiwan on June 10-11, 2016.

The second is a ominous strengthening circulation in the central Arabian Sea at the same time. That is June 10.

Mind you these are just possibilities at present.

MAY 25, 2016

WHY ARE NO CYCLONES FORMING NOW?

We wonder. The time is ripe. Pre- monsoon period. There is an upper air circulation in central Arabian Sea. Why is it not transforming into a tropical cyclone? (Latest GFS data hints at a depression hitting Andhra Pradesh coast on June 7, 2016).

The answer is because of MJO, MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION. At the time of ROANU the MJO was passing through eastern Indian Ocean. Presently it is around Indonesia and withering away.

The MJO gives impetus to existing stormy conditions and favours cyclone formation.

MAY 25, 2016

RAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO INDIA 

Not with a bang engined by a tropical depression or cyclone but gradually. Kerala is already experiencing showers. By month end Mumbai and Gujarat will receive light rainfall. Kerala, Karnataka and southern Andhra will be the wettest in the near future.

For Kerala the IMD warns.....

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING: Heavy rainfall is most likely to occur at one or two places in Kerala from 27th May 2016 till the morning of 29th May 2016.

27th May:  Heavy rain is likely at isolated places over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.28th May : Heavy rain is likely at isolated places over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

MAY 24, 2016

RAINS COMING TO INDIAN WEST COAST

The monsoons are slowly building up in the Arabian Sea. There is a lot of instability which will spread in the coming days and bring rains to Kerala. By May 28 rainfall activity will increase in coastal Kerala and Karnataka as the Arabian Sea will push in precipitation.

Analysis of forecast data reveals both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea will remain very unstable. This always happens prior to the onset of monsoons. Numerous upper level circulations will develop.

Some models are hinting at cyclone KYANT developing in the Bay of Bengal around June 1. But it is too premature to take it seriously.

Anything is possible in the coming few weeks. We are closely observing and will keep you posted of significant developments.

Below is a map showing total precipitation (in inches) till May 28, 2016. 

MAY 23, 2016

IT ALL STARTS FROM HERE.....

Just look at the latest satellite image of central Arabian Sea below. There is an intense cluster of thunderstorms. An oasis in a rainless sea. This system over the next few days will move east to the Indian coast.

Rains in Kerala will start. Then consolidate. They will then spread to coastal Karnataka. The entire sea will be full of rain systems by end of May.

It is from these expanding area of thunderstorms that the GFS forecast model expects a depression or cyclone will be spawned in early June.

Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.

MAY 23, 2016

GFS SHOWS ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE ON JUNE 7. 2016

The Global Forecast System in its 1800 UTC yesterday's data is indicating a big cyclone just south of the Gujarat coast on June 7, 2016.

Let us see if this prediction sustains. It expects the storm to start off as a low pressure area on June 4 near Karnataka coast.

Latest GFS data shows only a low pressure area on May 8.

The prediction by the GFS will have to sustain itself if we are to take it with any seriousness. Moreover it should be supported by other models.

The European model hints at a low forming on the Odisha coast on May 29.

Confusing state of affairs.

We shall watch the situation.

MAY 22, 2016

CFS MODEL PREDICTS HEAVY RAINS ON COASTAL MAHARASHTRA, GUJARAT BY JUNE 5

Most forecast models are not predicting extreme weather events in the coming few days for South Asia and Middle East. But the CFS has some cheering news. It predicts a heavy rain system bringing precipitation to coasts of western India and Sindh between May 29 and June 6.

It predicts upto 6 inches of rain in some places of Maharashtra and Gujarat. And about an inch or two in Gujarat and coastal Sindh. See the forecast map below.

The CFS forecast is supported by the GFS ensemble forecast. See the map below.

The map has some disappointing news too. If we believe this forecast then the map shows very weak below normal monsoon activity elsewhere. See the rampant orange colour? It means below average rains. The IMD has already warned of delayed onset of monsoon this year.

MAY 22, 2016

MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY BY JUNE 7, 2017

In meteorology one way to know thunderstorm activity is CAPE, Convective Available Potential Energy. Higher the CAPE, greater the instability in the atmosphere. If the atmosphere is unstable, thunderstorms arise, rain happens.

Given below are CAPE maps of today and June 7, 2016. There is a dramatic increase in CAPE.

One sees great atmosphere instability (CAPE) not only in India, Pakistan but along the Oman coast , Gulf of Oman and Bay of Bengal. Only Indian southern states will have tranquil weather.

One can conclude that a lot is going to happen in the next 15 days.

The maps are based on GFS Ensemble model.

MAY 21, 2016

These clusters of thunderstorms in the Arabian Sea as shown in the latest IR satellite image need to be watched.

In the following days these will slowly move east and bring rains to the Indian west coast.

MAY 21, 2016

GFS SHOWS STORM FORMATION OFF MUMBAI JUNE 6

The latest GFS data shows a depression forming on June 6, 2016, in the Arabian Sea off the Mumbai coast. 15 days is a long long time in weather forecasting.

Let us see if the prediction sticks.

The BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System) model predicts a low forming in the Arabian Sea by May end, but we have our doubts about the veracity of this model.

MAY 21, 2016

HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ON INDIAN WEST COAST BY JUNE 4

Though NWP models do not foresee any significant storm developing in the Arabian Sea in the coming days, rainfall activity will increase substantially in the sea.

This will be because of the pre-monsoon activity. Call it whatever you will. The fact is rains are coming on India's west coast.

It will be particularly heavy in coastal Kerala and Karnataka. 30 inches of rain by June 4. The map below shows the total accumulated precipitation till June 4, 2016. The data is from NOAA's GFS forecast model. The yellow colour denotes heaviest rainfall.

The IMD sees a good chance of an Arabian Sea cyclone on May 27, 2016.

MAY 20, 2016

CFS MODEL PREDICTS RAINS ON INDIAN WEST COAST BY MAY END

One is not very sure of the reliability of this forecast by the Coupled Forecast System. But it foresees a heavy rain system moving north along the coast in the Arabian Sea and bringing rains to (coastal areas of) Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat by May 31, 2016.

MAY 20, 2016

The Indian Meteorological Department, IMD, thinks there is 30+% chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea in the coming week, especially on May 25, 2016. Off the Gujarat coast.

Latest GFS data indicate a growing clusters of intense thunderstorms in central Arabian Sea by May 25, 2016. But none of the forecast models are hinting at a storm presently.