Heavy rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Sindh till July 13

JULY 10, 2016

The center of attraction presently is the rain system which is flooding Madhya Pradesh since the last few days. The engine of this rain system is a low pressure area which was born in eastern Uttar Pradesh and is presently hovering above north central Madhya Pradesh.

Though this upper air cyclonic circulation will dissipate in a couple of days, the accompanying rain system will drench northern Maharashtra, central, north Gujarat, parts of southwest Rajasthan, Kutch, Sindh in the coming days.

On Sunday, July 10, the drenching will occur in north Maharashtra. On July 11 the heavy showers will move into central and parts of north Gujarat. On July 12 the action will shift to some parts of southwest Rajasthan and Kutch. Coastal Sindh, including Karachi is in for significant rains on July 13, Wednesday.  

The GFS expects 10-20 inches of rainfall in central Gujarat, 2-5 inches in north Gujarat and Sindh in the coming 3 days.

Saurashtra will be left relatively rainless.

Strange and unpredictable is the monsoon this year with renowned numerical forecast models like the GFS and European ECMWF struggling to give accurate forecasts for even 24 hours.

Meanwhile there is bad news for folks in South Asia and Middle East. The much awaited rain giver La Niña has not yet been born. Though the dreaded El Niño died an unsung end in May 2016, conditions are ENSO neutral presently.  In other words though El Niño is no more, La Niña is yet to rise. The Climate Prediction Center, an US agency says there is a 60% chance of La Niña in July-August-September and 70 % possibility during August-September-October. 

The moment La Niña is born and grows up South Asia is in for torrential rains.

Incidentally I happened to glance at the CFS forecast for South Asia for the months of August and September. I was surprised to see wave after wave of rain systems emerging from the Arabian Sea and hitting western India. 

The CFS week-by-week prediction was disappointing. It expects rains in Gujarat till July 15. After that all of India is in for below average precipitation till August 7, except for Bihar, Bangladesh, parts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh.

LATEST NMME FORECAST FOR AUGUST 

Below is the rain forecast (above, below average) for South Asia by the NMME, The North American Multi-Model Ensemble model. It reiterates below average (orange) rainfall in parts of central and eastern India.

CFS FORECAST FOR AUGUST 

Meanwhile the Climate Forecast System, CFS, paints a gloomier picture. It says only the southern states of India and Bangladesh will receive good monsoon rains in August. For the rest of India it is orange, orange. Below normal precipitation.

Cyclone Nilofar Will Weaken Before Hitting Kachchh-Sindh: Strong Winds To Lash Oman Tomorrow

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: Cyclone Nilofar on Thursday evening. It will be at its strongest then. After that it will rapidly weaken before landfall

Nilofar cyclone may throw up awesome winds of 200-240 Kph tomorrow but by the time it makes landfall at Kachchh-Sindh it will weaken considerably.

Both the GFS forecast and JTWC forecast agree that the storm will weaken before landfall.

The GFS says landfall will be on October 31, 2014.

JTWC says it will be on November 1, 2014.

Both agree that at landfall winds will be about 65-90 Kph.

Nilofar will bring rains to Kachchh (Gujarat) and southern Sindh. Karachi is in for rains and winds of 80 Kph on October 31-November 1.

What about Oman? Cyclone Nilofar is not going to hit Oman. It will receive some rains and strong winds of 80-90 Kph tomorrow.

Cyclone Nilofar Update: Target Dwarka (Gujarat) Friday October 31, 2014

Forecast map: Nilofar about to hit Gujarat. Late night October 30, 2014.

Cyclone Nilofar seems to have changed its mind. Earlier forecasts said it would embrace Karachi.

But latest forecasts show that it is going to curve more than expected. That means it will make landfall at holy Dwarka on Friday, October 31, 2014.

It will than move through the Gulf of Kachchh and affect Mandvi, Mundra,  Kandla before weakening and moving into parts of northwest Gujarat.

Nilofar (At least present trends say) is not going to be as strong as the recent powerful Hudhud. So it it will dissipate even as a rain-bearing system after moving through Gujarat.

Presently Cyclone Nilofar is intensifying and moving towards Oman. But it will change direction and start in a northerly trajectory, thus avoiding landfall into Oman.

It will weaken slightly as it moves north till October 29.

But on Wednesday it will start curving towards Gujarat and strengthen again.

Mercifully by the time it hits the Gujarat coast it will weaken to winds of 100-120 Kph.

In the next 24 hours it will be at its peak with winds howling at a frightening 200+ Kph. The eye will be clearly visible then.

Most of the rains will fall in Kachchh-Saurashtra. Pakistan will get some showers (Karachi) on October 31.

Oman will see strong winds, dark clouds in the coastal areas. And some showers in the next two days.

But it will be Saurashtra-Kachchh which will bear the brunt of Nilofar's fury.

There are 3-4 days before Cyclone Nilofar touches land. Till then Oman, Sindh and Gujarat will be on tenterhooks.

Nilofar is an unpredictable wild lass capable of anything.

In the next 4 days we will keep a keen watch on this beautiful but dangerous creation of Mother Earth.

Latest JTWC forecast: Nilofar Cyclone will hit Kachch Gujarat Friday morning

The JTWC in its latest bulletin (October 27, 2014, 8:30 AM IST) says Nilofar cyclone will enter Gujarat near Narayan Sarovar (Western Kutch) on early Friday (October 31, 2014) morning, Indian Standard Time.

There is some disagreement between this and what the GFS says. GFS says Nilofar will curve less and hit Sindh in Pakistan.

We will continue giving you the latest updates.

Cyclone NILOFAR Will Hit Karachi October 30, 2014 Night

The latest (1500 hrs UTC October 26, 2014) JTWC prediction

Cyclone Nilofar is coming. Right now it is disorganized and hovering in the Arabian Sea east of Aden.

In the next few days it will strengthen and move towards Oman.

But it will just skim the Omani coast and abruptly change direction and hit the Pakistan coast at Karachi on Friday evening.

Nilofar about to make landfall at Sind. October 31,2014. Early morning

The mercy is that when cyclone Nilofar changes direction on October 29, it will weaken slightly. But even then it will hammer Karachi with 100+ Kph winds.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in Sind in October end.

The GFS forecast says the tropical cyclone will hit Karachi. The JTWC differs slightly. It says the target will be the Gujarat coast at Kutch.

We tend to go with the GFS forecast.

Karachi, watch out. Nilofar is not going to be soft, gentle and feminine.

Satellite image of Nilofar taken today (Sunday)

Arabian Sea Low Pressure (Oct.-Nov. 2011) Shifts Course: Will Only Touch Oman Balochistan In For a Deluge

We had predicted quite substantial rain in Oman from 31 st October, 2011. Well, the Arabian Sea Low Pressure system that was to bring the precipitation is going to shift its course slightly. It will bring rains to Oman but in lesser areas and in less amounts. The coastal areas are going to get a drenching. Especially the island of Kalban and Dawwah. Sur and Al Kamil will get good rains too. But it is Balochistan in Pakistan which will receive the deluge from November 1, 2011. All of southern Pakistan (Sindh too)  is in for rains. Karachi on November 3rd, 2011.
(Oman will receive more rains later, till Nov. 15, as another low pressure area in the Arabian Sea will form on November 3, 2011. Read about it here)

Rain Forecast Maps

 Late Monday night. October 31, 2011. Rains to lash Oman coastal areas

November 1-2, 2011. Southern Pakistan gets a deluge. Karachi gets rainfall too.

Keila Is Coming Today! Will Hit Pakistan Coast Monday (June 13, 2011) Evening

Keila Is Coming! Finally! She will awake from her 'hibernation', gain strength and hit the Saurashtra coast by today (Saturday, June 11, 2011) evening. Keila will be a little girl. A cyclone with wind speeds of 80+ Kmph. Though she might have her nasty spells. 


Contrary to earlier predictions Keila is going to enter the Saurashtra coast more then expected before. It is also going to hit the area around Karachi (Monday, June 13, 2011) evening bang on. It will then peter out  Wednesday (June 15, 2011) near the Pakistan coast (Gwadar area).


The dampener is that another prediction model, EFS says the low pressure area in the Arabian Sea is going to fizzle out soon. Not even touch the Saurshtra coast. The forecast in this article is based on the GFS model. I generally prefer the GFS. EFS, I feel, is too timid at times.

LATEST JTWC BULLETIN

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
70.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 71.2E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ....THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE LATEST XTREME FORECASTS

• Keila will touch the Saurashtra coast today (Saturday, June 11, 2011) evening near the Diu-Veraval stretch.

• The coastal towns of Diu, Veraval, Pobandar, Dwarka, Kandla, Mundra, Mandvi will see high speed winds. 80+ Kmph. Interior Saurashtra will have lower winds. 50+ Kmph.

• Keila will hit the Pakistan coast on Monday (June 13, 2011). Including Karachi.High speed winds of 80+ Kmph.

• The storm will subside on Wednesday near Gwadar.

• Heavy showers are expected on the coastal areas of Saurashtra and in Karachi.

EXPECTED PATH OF CYCLONE KEILA

 Saturday Night. June 11, 2011. Keila touches Saurashtra coast

 Monday (June 13, 2011) Keila passes Kutch.

 Tuesday (June 14, 2011) morning (Local time). Keila reaches Karachi

Wednesday (June 15, 2011) evening. End of Keila near Gwadar.

KEILA To Hit Saurashtra Coast Friday Morning; Pakistan To Be Affected Too

Latest predictions for severe tropical storm Keila say that it will touch the Saurashtra (Gujarat state, India) coast near Diu on Friday (June 10, 2011) morning. It will then move along the Saurashtra coast and pass the Pakistani coast. Towns which will bear the brunt of Keila will be Diu, Veraval, Porbandar, Dwarka, Kandla, Mundra in India. Karachi (Saturday June 11, 2011 morning) in Pakistan and the port of Gwadar will be badly hit too. It will then move to Southern Iran and slowly dissipate (June 14, Tuesday).


LATEST KEILA UPDATES
(June 7, 2011. 07.40 GMT)

• All the ports on the coast of Saurashtra-Kutch (India) and Pakistan will have to face very strong winds. 120 Kmph+. That is the minimum. Diu, Veraval, Porbandar, Dwarka, Gandhidham, Kandla, Mundra in India. Karachi and Gwadar in Pakistan. 

• Bhavnagar and Diu will start receiving rain from Thursday (June 9, 2011) evening. All the coastal areas in India, Pakistan and Iran will receive heavy rains with very strong winds.

• Keila is going to skim the coast of Oman. Muscat will receive some rain. But the center of the storm will pass by from the sea itself. Northern Oman and UAR will get lots of rain.

The projected path of Keila will be.....


NOTE: 1 knot = 1.85 Kmph

 Friday morning. June 10. Keila hits Diu on the Saurashtra coast

 Friday evening. June 10, 2011

 Saturday (June 11, 2011) morning. Keila nudges Karachi awake

 Sunday. June 12. Morning

 Sunday evening. June 12, 2011

 Monday morning. June 13, 2011. Hello Iran.

 Tuesaday morning. End of Keila starts

Keila dissipates. Tuesday (June14) evening