Keila Is Coming Today! Will Hit Pakistan Coast Monday (June 13, 2011) Evening

Keila Is Coming! Finally! She will awake from her 'hibernation', gain strength and hit the Saurashtra coast by today (Saturday, June 11, 2011) evening. Keila will be a little girl. A cyclone with wind speeds of 80+ Kmph. Though she might have her nasty spells. 


Contrary to earlier predictions Keila is going to enter the Saurashtra coast more then expected before. It is also going to hit the area around Karachi (Monday, June 13, 2011) evening bang on. It will then peter out  Wednesday (June 15, 2011) near the Pakistan coast (Gwadar area).


The dampener is that another prediction model, EFS says the low pressure area in the Arabian Sea is going to fizzle out soon. Not even touch the Saurshtra coast. The forecast in this article is based on the GFS model. I generally prefer the GFS. EFS, I feel, is too timid at times.

LATEST JTWC BULLETIN

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
70.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 71.2E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ....THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE LATEST XTREME FORECASTS

• Keila will touch the Saurashtra coast today (Saturday, June 11, 2011) evening near the Diu-Veraval stretch.

• The coastal towns of Diu, Veraval, Pobandar, Dwarka, Kandla, Mundra, Mandvi will see high speed winds. 80+ Kmph. Interior Saurashtra will have lower winds. 50+ Kmph.

• Keila will hit the Pakistan coast on Monday (June 13, 2011). Including Karachi.High speed winds of 80+ Kmph.

• The storm will subside on Wednesday near Gwadar.

• Heavy showers are expected on the coastal areas of Saurashtra and in Karachi.

EXPECTED PATH OF CYCLONE KEILA

 Saturday Night. June 11, 2011. Keila touches Saurashtra coast

 Monday (June 13, 2011) Keila passes Kutch.

 Tuesday (June 14, 2011) morning (Local time). Keila reaches Karachi

Wednesday (June 15, 2011) evening. End of Keila near Gwadar.