Tropical Storm "Kammuri" Update: September 27, 2014: Typhoon Will Pass By Japan On Sept. 29, 2014

Infra-Red satellite image of Typhoon Kammuri taken at 0300 Hrs, September 27, 2014

Japan is fortunate. Just a few days there was a real possibility that two typhoons would strike it one after another. But things have changed. Typhoon Kammuri which is hovering around in the Pacific now is not going to strike Japan but pass it by on September 29, 2014.

Typhoon Phanfone which is being spawned right now in the Pacific, will also by-pass Japan in early October. But that we leave for later.

Expected path of Kammuri: From today till September 29, 2014

MET OFFICE PREDICTS THE PATH OF 'KAMMURI'
       GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.09.2014

 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI    ANALYSED POSITION : 24.8N 145.7E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 27.09.2014  24.8N 145.7E   MODERATE

 12UTC 27.09.2014  27.3N 144.5E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 28.09.2014  30.1N 143.3E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 28.09.2014  32.1N 144.1E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 29.09.2014  33.4N 146.1E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 29.09.2014  35.7N 149.9E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 30.09.2014  39.0N 156.4E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 30.09.2014  41.3N 164.4E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 01.10.2014  41.0N 172.1E   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 01.10.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

XWF WEATHER FORECAST MAP: Typhoon "Phanfone" moves past Japan on October 5, 2015

Latest Pacific Update: September 24, 2014: Both Kammuri And Phanfone Will Skip Japan

The vagaries of nature! Yesterday it seemed as if Kammuri would be a very big storm and it would hit central Japan on September 29, 2014. And that Phanfone would strike a week later.

But latest predictions say both the typhoons will kiss the Japanese coast and move away without moving in. Kammuri on September 29, 2014 and Phanfone on around October 7, 2014.

But nature can spring surprises. We have to keep a close watch.

This is what the venerable JTWC says in its latest bulletin....

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 150.6E TO 23.5N 145.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 149.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.

LATEST UPDATE 0630 HRS GMT 23/9/204: Typhoon Kammuri To Hit Central Japan September 29, 2014

Latest forecasts say upcoming typhoon "Kammuri" will hit central Japan on September 29, 2014.

Earlier we had predicted that the storm will just skim the Japanese coast and move away but the typhoon seems to have changed its mind and will now hit central Japan near Tokyo on September 29, 2014.

Kammuri is going to be a big storm. May be a super typhoon.

Keep reading this site for the latest forecasts.

XWF FORECAST MAP: Kammuri about to hit central Japan on 29th September 2014

Super Storm KAMMURI To Develop In Next Few Days: Will Pass By Japan On September 29, 2014

LATEST JTWC WARNING SAYS.....

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 148.1E TO 17.5N 147.9E  WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT  IMAGERY AT 091830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 148.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.

Latest forecasts say KAMMURI will kiss central Japan and move away on September 29, 2014, But who knows what might happen?

In the next few days, a much bigger storm than Fung-wong will take birth in the western Pacific. Kammuri. Typhoon Kammuri will form near the Mariana Islands in the Pacific.

In the next few days, it will move NNW towards central Japan. It will approach the country till the 29th of September giving Japan a scare, because Kammuri will be a big storm with a very large radius (Fung-wong was a pygmy by comparison).

But then suddenly it will move away north-easterly from Japan into the deep Pacific ocean.

Going by present forecasts, Kammuri will not hit Japan. All it will do is devastate the islands in its path (Volacano Islands, Bonin Islands, Iwo Jima) but these are sparsely populated.

Make no mistake; Kammuri is going to be big monster.

If it decides to hit Japan, it will be devastating.

XWF FORECAST MAP: This the closest super-typhoon "Kammuri" will get to Japan. After 29/9/2014 it will move away from the country

Present predicted path of KAMMURI

The JTWC warns of the birth of Kammuri

This satelliteiamge taken at 0000 Hrs GMT, 3rd September, 2014, shows the birth of Kammuri near the island of Guam

Western Pacific Update, September 21, 2014: Wung-fong will die down after crossing Taiwan, "Kammuri" Will Hit Japan October 3, 2014

The Atlantic and Indian oceans have been peaceful. In contrast, the Pacific, especially Western Pacific is in ferment.

Tropical storm Fung-wong is moving intoTaiwan now. It will cross through it bringing rains and gale. The storm will than make landfall in China's Zhejiang province and will peter out, bringing rains to South Korea and Japan.

The next storm, "Kammuri" will form deep in the Pacific by September 25. It will strengthen and move west initially but then turn north sharply and hit central Japan on October 3, 2014.

Typhoon Fung-wong will move into Taiwan tomorrow . A weak storm.

An infra-red satellite image of Typhoon Fung-wong taken at 0000 Hrs, September 21, 2014 (GMT)

Fung-wong is entering Taiwan

READ MORE ON TYPHOON FUNG-WONG

FUTURE STORMS: Typhoon"KAMMURI" Will Hit Taiwan And East China In Early October, 2014

XWF FORECAST MAP: October 2, 2014. Typhoon Kammuri gains strength and moves west towards China

The Western Pacific is in ferment. It is churning out typhoons every couple of days. After Kalmaegi, tropical cyclone Fung-wong has already formed (It is a low pressure area now) and will hit Japan on September 21, 2014.

After that Tropical Cyclone KAMMURI will form north east of Philippines as a humble low pressure area on September 27, 2014. It will not go to either Philippines or Japan but will gain momentum, move west pass pelt melt over Taiwan and then slam into the Chinese coast north of Hongkong.