The Expected System Will At Best Be A Depression:Heay Rains Likely In Philippines, Vietnam In Next 15 Days


Update: December 10, 2014

The  system (96W) that has formed in the Pacific near Palau Island will not intensify into a significant tropical storm. It is likely to remain a low pressure area or a depression.

Update: December 9, 2014

There is another tropical storm coming  to Philippines. On December 13, 2014.

NOAA has taken note of this imminent storm. It calls it 96W (See Track). Presently it lies about 1100 kms ESE of Palau in the Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm JANGMI will form on December 11, and move to Philippines intensifying as it does so. It will move through central Philippines from December 13-14 and then enter the South China Sea. When it travels across the country the winds will be in excess of 70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph. For a country that is reeling under the impact of super typhoon Hagupit, this is bad news.

Tropical Storm Jangmi will intensify again in the warm  South China Sea and go on to hit central Vietnam (almost the same area where Hagupit is going to impact on Thursday) on December 15, 2014, Monday.

In short, it is double whammy for Vietnam in the coming few days.

Read: Hagupit Threat to Vietnam

UPDATE: December 8, 2014

Later forecasts have predicted that the chances of a significant tropical storm forming in the next one week in western Pacific are remote. Hence Jangmi will not form now.

But Hagupit is coming to Vietnam on December 12 morning (Vietnam Time). A minor storm with winds of 65-85 kph.

UPDATE: December 7, 2014

Hagupit Will Intensify again a little as it enters the South China Sea on Tuesday. It will hit south Vietnam on December 11, 2014, albeit as a weak storm. Another smaller typhoon JANGMI will follow Hagupit in a few days.

Hagupit will weaken considerably when it leaves Philippines on Tuesday but it will strengthen a little when it enters the South China Sea. It will then go on to hit southern Vietnam on Friday (December 11, 2014) morning (Vietnam Time). But it just be a weak storm. Winds of 65-85 kph.

The formation of Jangmi is supported by the GFS and Gem models. It will be a depression when it enters central Philippines on December 14, 2014. But once it enters the South China Sea, it will gain typhoon status and go on to hit Vietnam on December 16-17.


December 14, 2014: Tropical Storm JANGMI En Route To Vietnam
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