Monster Typhoon Haima (Lawin) To Pass Northern Luzon Oct 20, Hong Kong Hit On Oct 22

OCTOBER 19, 2016, WEDNESDAY 

Monster category 5 typhoon Haima (Lawin) is at present (0430 GMT) about 430 kilometres ENE of Manila. Luzon is already feeling the arrival of the storm. The outer edges have already touched the country. The sustained wind speeds at present are 240+ km/h, gusts upto a staggering 310 km/h. Haima is a real monster. The bad news is Luzon is going to be hit by powerful 200 km/h winds. The typhoon will weaken a notch, to category 4, as it hits northern Philippines. A real nightmare for the country.

Haima will hit Hong Kong on October 22, 2016, as a category 2 storm.

OCTOBER 18, 2016, TUESDAY 

Category 4 typhoon Haima (Lawin) was about 1150 kilometres east of Manila at 0000 hours GMT today. Sustained winds of 245 km/h gusting upto 270 km/h. In the next 24 hours it will strengthen even more.

Fortunately by the time it passes extreme northern Luzon, Philippines on October 20, it will have weakened to a a category 2 storm. Even then Luzon may experience winds of 180 km/h.

After passing Philippines typhoon Haima will move into South China Sea and go onto to hit China at Hong Kong though the JTWC believes it will make landfall further north at Shantou. We believe it will hit Hong Kong on October 22.

After Sarika (Karen), Luzon, Philippines May Be Affected by TropicalCyclone Haima (Lawin) Oct 20, 2016

OCTOBER 12, 2016, WEDNESDAY

Luzon, Philippines faces the prospect of being buffeted by two tropical storms in a span of a week. Future typhoon Sarika (Karen) will hit central part of the province on October 16. And the northern tip of the island may receive a thrashing by another typhoon, Haima ( Lawin) around October 20-21, 2016.

Invest 93W, that is future Karen, is already intensifying. It has turned into a tropical depression. It lies about 500 kilometres east of Samar. By Friday it will have turned into a tropical storm. When is crosses central Luzon on Sunday, thankfully, it will be throwing out winds of 70-80 km/h, with a central minimum pressure of 987mb.

Typhoon Sarika will rapidly intensify into powerful category 3/4 typhoon when it enters the South China Sea. Forecast models are predicting it may turn into a 944 hPa storm on October 18. Present forecasts indicate a hit on Zhenjiang, China on October 19, 2016.

Meanwhile another cyclone is brewing in West Pacific Ocean near Micronesia islands. It will intensify into typhoon Haima (to be called Lawin by PAGASA) as it moves west over the coming days. Present forecasts say this typhoon may graze the northern tip of Luzon on October 20-21 and the go on and affect Taiwan.

TYPHOON HAIMA, LAWIN MAY TURN INTO A BIG MONSTER STORM

Typhoon Sarika (Karen) Brewing In West Pacific, Philippines, Hainan,Vietnam Under Threat

UPDATE, OCTOBER 13, 2016, THURSDAY 

Bad news for China and Philippines. Both are going to be hit by two powerful typhoons within a space of one week. Sarika (Karen) will be a small storm when it crosses Philippines (Manila, Luzon) on October 16. Winds of 70-80 km/h. But lots of flooding rains. It will become a category 3 typhoon when it hits Hainan in China on October 18. Sarika will end up in Vietnam on October 19.

The real worry is typhoon Haima (Lawin). Forecast models say it may move through northern Luzon on October 20, 2016 as a monster category 4 hurricane with winds of 230-240 km/h. It will weaken a little and hit China at Hong Kong on October 22.

OCTOBER 11, 2016, TUESDAY

First time this West Pacific season 2016, Philippines is under threat from a direct hit from a tropical cyclone on October 15. Future typhoon Sarika (called Karen by PAGASA) is already brewing a few hundred kilometres off the coast of Philippines.

The system named Invest 93W by NOAA is a mere low pressure area but within 48 hours it will start intensifying into a tropical storm. It will be probably be christened on October 13-14 as it starts moving in a northwesterly direction towards Luzon. It will cross Luzon on October 15, 2016 just north of Manila as a tropical cyclone with winds of 80 km/h.

The real intensification of this storm will occur once it enters the South China Sea on October 16. Opinions are divided as to its track. Some forecast models think it will hit mainland China at Guangdong province at Zhenjiang on October 18.

We think typhoon Sarika will pass Hainan island on October 18 as a category 3/4 typhoon with winds of 200+ km/h and then go onto hit Vietnam on October 19, 2016.

Hainan and Vietnam are in for trouble in the coming days.

Present position of 93W. At 0000 hours GMT, October 11 it was 500 kilometres east of Tacloban.

Typhoon MALAKAS To Drench Japan, Future MEGI Threatens Philippines On September 26

SEPTEMBER 19, 2016, MONDAY

 

The western Pacific Ocean is hurling storms by the fistful. Even as a weakening typhoon MALAKAS prepares to drench Japan as it slices though the eastern coast of the country, another typhoon MEGI is likely to hit Luzon, Philippines in a week, around September 26, 2016.

 

MALAKAS will hit Kyushu island east of Kagoshima city at about 1300 hours GMT, today with sustained winds of 150 km/h. It's wind intensity will decrease rapidly as it moves through the eastern coast of Japan. By the time it passes by Tokyo after 48 hours on September 21, 2016, it will be a mere tropical depression. But the typhoon will bring heavy rains in the country. Kyushu island is expected to receive 12 inches of rainfall in the next 24 hours.

 

Meanwhile another west Pacific Ocean typhoon MEGI may hit Luzon, Philippines on September 26, 2016. This typhoon may further intensify as it enters the South China Sea and hit the Chinese coast at Macau/Hong Kong on September 28, 2016.

At this stage it is difficult to be sure as to the expected track of typhoon MEGI. Other forecast models are saying it may just skim northern Luzon and hit Taiwan on September 29, 2016.

 

 

 

Update 3: Typhoon NIDA Passing Through Luzon, Target Hong Kong

JULY 31, 2016, 0630 GMT

Tropical cyclone NIDA is presently passing through the northern part of Luzon, Philippines.

Wind speed 110 km/h, gusts 130 km/h. Location is about 400 kilometres north east of Manila.

It will leave Philippines and head into the South China Sea in the next 12 hours. It will intensify as it moves through the sea.

It is expected to hit the Chinese coast at Hong Kong on August 2, 2016 noon local time. Winds expected at impact : 100-110 km/h, gusts 130 km/h.

The European forecast model ECMWF expects landfall a further 100 kilometres north along the Guangdong coast at Danshui and Jhanwei.

Rain radar shows heavy precipitation in Luzon as typhoon NIDA passes.

Typhoon NIDA, Update 2: Tropical Depression Now, 650 East of Manila

JULY 30, 2016

Future typhoon NIDA is a tropical depression now. Wind speeds of 50-55 km/h. About 650 kilometres east of Manila. Central minimum pressure:1000 Mb.

The system is intensifying all the time. It will be soon officially named NIDA. The eye of the typhoon will pass close by the northern tip of Luzon on August 1, 2016. Winds of 100-120 km/h will lash northern Luzon when the tropical cyclone passes by. Heavy rains expected in northern Philippines in next 72 hours.

The typhoon will intensify further as it enters the South China Sea. NIDA will make landfall into Guangdong province of China at Hong Kong on August 2, 2016, evening local time. Expected winds at Impact are 130km/h gusts upto 160 km/h.

As typhoon NIDA intensifies, it it is raining in many parts of Philippines, including Manila.

Update 1: Typhoon NIDA To Pass By Luzon July 31, Hit China August 1,2

JULY 29, 2016

Future typhoon NIDA, system 96W in the West Pacific Ocean, lies a few hundred kilometres east of Samar island, Philippines as a depression. Current pressure is 1001 Mb, winds of 35 km/h.

In the next 48 hours it will intensify into a tropical storm and pass by the northern tip of Luzon on Sunday. After that it will move into the South China Sea and intensify rapidly into typhoon NIDA.

It is expected to make landfall into Guangdong province of China between Shanwei and Shantou on August 1-2, 2016.

Different forecast models are giving confusing signals as to the track and intensify of this storm. Some say it will move to Guangdong province of China as a strong typhoon. Others say it will move to Taiwan as a deep depression or a weak cyclone.

Keep in touch for updates.

Typhoon NIDA Threatens Philippines, China

JULY 25, 2016

After super typhoon NEPARTAK, a weak LUPIT, and the presently brewing tropical cyclone MIRINAE which threatens Hainan and northern Vietnam yet another tropical cyclone is imminent in western Pacific Ocean. NIDA  is likely to affect Luzon in Philippines and mainland China in the coming days.

NIDA  will be born on July 30 as a low pressure area a few hundred kilometres east of central Philippines. It will intensify into a deep depression by the time it moves through Luzon on July 31, 2016. It being at best a deep depression or a weak tropical storm when it passes Philippines, the country will face weak winds of about 60-70 km/h at most. But there will be very heavy precipitation in Luzon.

It will rapidly intensify into a powerful typhoon as it moves through the South China Sea and hit China at Hong Kong or Macau in Guangdong province on August 2-3, 2016.

The European forecast model ECMWF estimates the storm will have a central minimum pressure of 978 hPa. Quite a powerful typhoon. Winds of over 120-130 km/h expected.

It being early days as the storm is yet to be spawned, we will give real time updates as to track and intensity.

UPDATE: JULY 26, 2016

Later data from forecast models say typhoon NIDA may hit China at Zhanjiang in southern Guangdong province that is at an area much further south from Hong Kong. Some models are suggesting a hit on Taiwan. The situation is confusing at present. We shall continue giving you updates. Keep in touch.

UPDATE: JULY 27, 2016

PHILIPPINES STARES AT A TYPHOON (NIDA)

Contrary to earlier forecasts, typhoon NIDA is going to intensify into a tropical cyclone and not a mere depression by the time it reaches Luzon, Philippines, on July 31.

Please keep in touch for latest updates.

JULY 28, 2016

Future typhoon NIDA has been born. It is called 96W. It lies about 350-400 east of Mindanao, Philippines. Central pressure is 1007 Mb. See figure below. In the next 2-3 days it will intensify and move in a NW direction and pass through Luzon on July 31. Latest forecasts say it will hit the Chinese coast at Hong Kong-Macau on August 2-3.

This latest satellite image shows MIRINAE dissipating after landfall into Vietnam and NIDA growing up east of Philippines.

Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) October 2015 XWF Latest Updates, Track Forecast

TRACK TYPHOON KOPPU LIVE

Updates based on Japan Meteorological Agency, Joint Typhoon Warning Center and global forecast models.

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Update: October 20, 2015

Tropical storm KOPPU is weakening all the time as it prepares to leave the shores of Philippines.

The JTWC is still bullish on the storm and believes it will only dissipate on October 25. We believe it will weaken to a mere depression by tomorrow. It will not have any significant impact on Taiwan.

Update: October 19, 2015

The bad news for Philippines is the tropical storm is going to move slowly and will leave the country's shores only after 48 hours if not more. That means still more rains in Luzon for another 2-3 days.

As to its future, KOPPU is not going to intensify again as it heads towards Taiwan. But it will bring heavy rains to the country on October 23 as it moves close past its eastern coast. Winds will be tropical storm strength- about 70-90 km/h.

Update: October 17, 2015

KOPPU is intensifying presently. Soon it will be a category 4 hurricane with winds of 120 knots, gusts up to 140 knots. That is winds of 225-270 km/h.

Thankfully for Philippines the intensity of the typhoon will decrease. Wind speeds expected at impact on Luzon will be 180-220 km/h. Hardly any consolation.

The most worrying aspect is that KOPPU will leave Luzon completely only on October 21. That means incessant rains for 5 days. Heavy flooding and landslides are expected.

The system will weaken to a tropical storm after making landfall. After Philippines, it will move past the eastern shores of Taiwan on October 23. Expect strong winds and heavy rainfall in that country around October 23.

After moving past Taiwan KOPPU will weaken into a depression on October 24 in the East China Sea.

There is some disagreement amongst forecast models as to KOPPU's future. An alternative scenario is that it skips past southern Taiwan and makes landfall into Fujian province of China on October 23.

Latest JTWC track forecast

Forecast map for track and intensity

Update: October 16, 2015

Latest data from reliable computer models indicates a hit on Luzon on late Sunday noon PHT. Expected wind speeds at impact will be 180-220 km/h. The cyclone will weaken after impact but the major worry is the torrential downpours on northern Philippines for 3 days. Koppu will linger over Luzon for 72 hours.

It is expected to make landfall into Guangdong province of China on October 24.

Taiwan will not be affected except for showers in southern part of the island on October 22-23.

Update: October 15, 2015

The JTWC predicts in its latest bulletin that the violent typhoon will hit Luzon on Saturday afternoon with winds of 180-220 km/h.

Update: October 15, 2015

It is now certain that typhoon KOPPU will slam into Luzon in northern Philippines on October 18, 2015.  Not just touch the northeastern part of Luzon as some forecasts were saying but move right through it. Manila will be directly hit.

The storm is going to rapidly intensify in the next 48 hours.

KOPPU will take 2 days to move past Luzon so flooding torrential rains accompanied by strong winds can be expected October 18-20.

Thankfully the cyclone will weaken before hitting Philippines.

After Philippines?

Where will KOPPU go after Luzon? Models differ. Some predict a weakened KOPPU will move close past Taiwan on October 22-23. Other models say it will make landfall into China at northern Guangdong or southern part of Fujian province on October 22.

Water vapor satellite image of tropical storm KOPPU at 0400 hours GMT October 15, 2015

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Update: October 14, 2015, 1630 GMT

Typhoon Koppu will turn into a violent typhoon when it hits Luzon on October 18. Torrential ràins and 230-270 km/h winds expected.

Update: October 14, 2015

Though present forecasts by JTWC says KOPPU will move through the northeast tip of Luzon we believe it will hit the area head on October 18 and move though it in the next 24 hours thereafter. We also predict Taiwan will be hit directly on October 22.

But it is not going to be a very strong typhoon. A category 1 or 2 (at most) cyclone according Saffir- Simpson scale. Winds of 120 km/h.

Latest satellite image of typhoons KOPPU and CHAMPI and their expected track (October 14 forecast)

Update: October 13, 2015 (0930 GMT)

The JTWC in its latest bulletin predicts typhoon KOPPU will hit Luzon, Philippines on October 18 with winds of 220-270 km/h.

Update: October 13, 2015

There are two typhoons imminent in the western Pacific Ocean. Future typhoon KOPPU is a tropical storm and will intensify into a typhoon in the next 48 hours or less. It recently passed Northern Marianas as a tropical depression. Position at 0000 hours today was 15.6 N, 143.1 E.

Future typhoon CHAMPI is in the Micronesia Islands presently. Position at 0000 hours today was 12 N, 162.2 E.

CHAMPI is expected to swing north in a couple of days harmlessly.

KOPPU is a cause of concern for the Philippines. Presently major forecast models differ as to its track. The intensity is not in doubt. It will be a category 3-4 ( may be 5) hurricane by October 18.

As to its track. One model predicts a direct hit on Luzon in northern Philippines on October 18. It will then hover around Luzon for 24-36 hours and move north, weaken and hit Taiwan on October 20, 2015.

 Another model says it will come dangerously close to Luzon on October 18-19 but will then swing north. Taiwan may be in peril.

Stay with us for continuous updates.

Recent satellite image showing future typhoons KOPPU and CHAMPI 

Track forecast for future typhoon KOPPU 

Present position of future typhoon Champi

Typhoon GONI Will Hit South Korea August 25, 2015

Typhoon Goni which is dangerously hovering in the West Pacific will turn into a very powerful cyclone and is expected to Hit South Korea on August 25, 2015. It will pass close by Luzon in Philippines and Taiwan soon.

Typhoon Goni track forecast. It is likely to hit South Korea on August 25, 2015

The Western Pacific Ocean has spawned two powerful typhoons simultaneously, which is surprising. If forecasts are to be believed both Goni and Atsani are headed to super typhoon-dom. 

Soon to be super cyclone Atsani is not so worrying as it will mainly traverse uninhabited areas and may threaten central Japan On August 23, 2015. Our prediction is Tokyo is safe as Atsani will swing away back into the ocean without hitting Japan.

But Typhoon Goni is going to give many countries cause to worry. After passing Guam it is intensifying and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center says it will reach wind speeds of 220 km/h on August 21, when it will pass by Luzon in Philippines. Only the periphery of the storm will touch northern Philippines.

After that typhoon Goni will move north and intensify. It is possible it may become a super typhoon as the warm waters of the East China Sea gives it extra vigor.

It will move past Taiwan on August 22, but at a safe distance. Eastern coast of the country will experience stormy rain and winds as Goni passes by.

On August 25, 2015 it will moves through western Kyushu Island of Japan and then enter South Korea. It will weaken a little before landfall.

The provinces of South Jeolla and South Gyoengsong of South Korea will be the worst hit.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

Water vapor satellite image of the West Pacific Ocean showing Typhoon Goni and Atsani.

Pacific Typhoons Goni Atsani Threaten Philippines, Taiwan, Korea Japan

The two typhoons Goni and Atsani hovering in the West Pacific Ocean could threaten Philippines, Taiwan, Korea and Japan in the coming days this August 2015.

Track forecast for Pacific Ocean typhoon Goni and Atsani. Goni will move close by Luzon in Philippines and northern Taiwan. Future super typhoon Atsani poses a threat to central Japan on August 26, 2015.

Though latest forecasts by leading reliable computer models say now that none of these cyclones will hit any country directly but it is difficult to say so with any emphasis as tropical storms obey no computer models however thorough they may be.

A couple of days back we had said in our prediction that Typhoon Goni might hit China at Shanghai but the expected track has changed a little. The tropical cyclone is to move much closer to Luzon in Philippines than earlier expected on August 21, 2015.  It will kiss past the northeastern coast of Taiwan on August 23, 2015 and then weaken. It will then swing towards southern Japan and then change direction and enter South Korea as a  tropical storm on August 27.

Typhoon Goni will probably not metamorphose into a super typhoon (Unlike Atsani) but it will still be  a dangerous storm with a central minimum pressure of 914 Mb when it moves past Luzon. Winds of 200+ km/h. It is possible it may reach super typhoon status.

The authorities in Philippines, Taiwan, Korea and Japan will have to keep a very close watch on cyclone Goni.

Typhoon Atsani in contrast only threatens central Japan. And in a few days it will turn into a howling monster of a storm. A super typhoon with a minimum pressure of 905 Mb. A dangerous powerful cyclone.

Atsani will move through Iwo Jima and go very close to central  Japan threatening Tokyo on August 26, 2015. Our calculation presently is that it will not hit Japan but swing away north east in northern Pacific Ocean and turn into a mid-latitude cyclone threatening the Aleutian Islands.

See the storm live at CYCLONE TRACKER

Typhoons Goni and Atsani in the West Pacific Ocean are going to intensify and turn into very powerful storms in the coming days and they threaten Philippines, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. in the next 10 days. They are slow moving cyclones and hence lethal.

Typhoon Noul (Dodong) Update: Will Hit Santa Ana In Luzon Sunday Night

Update: 1230 Hours GMT, May 9, 2015

Typhoon Noul (Dodong) is only going to make a brief landfall at Santa Ana, Cagayan Valley, the northern most tip of Luzon, Philippines on Sunday late evening (Local Time).

Presently the storm is whipping 150 kph winds gusts up to 180 kph. It is about 400 kilometers from Santa Ana, Cagayan Valley, Luzon, Philippines to where it is headed.

At landfall it will weaken a little. Winds will drop to 110 kph.

The adjoining islands of Palau, Batan and Babuyan will bear the brunt of the storm.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in these places. Cagayan Valley will see floods and there is extreme danger of landslides as torrential rains will fall there.

Taiwan is safe from typhoon Noul. It will pass a few hundred kilometers from the eastern coast of the country. Not much effect.

1130 GMT, MAY 9, 2015. LATEST IMAGE OF TYPHOON NOUL

LATEST TRACK FORECAST FOR TYPHOON NOUL DODONG BY JTWC ISSUED TODAY

Typhoon Noul To Hit Cagayan Valley, Luzon, Philippines Sunday (May10, 2015) Afternoon

Ground Zero is going to be Cagayan Valley, Luzon, northern Philippines. That is where typhoon Noul (Dodong) is going to enter the country. When? May 10, 2015. Sunday afternoon, Philippines Time. Wind speed at impact? 120 kph, gusts up to 150 kph.

But the country will get a taste of the typhoon tomorrow (Saturday) itself as the periphery of the storm will lash Catanduanes Island. Luckily for the island it will not be a direct impact so the full fury of the storm will not be felt. But expects strong winds and heavy showers.

Eastern coast of Luzon near the Cagayan Valley will not be so lucky as it will face the brunt of this tropical cyclone. Very heavy rains are expected in the northern half of Luzon. Manila will escape relatively unscathed as the path of the storm has shifted slightly north.

Typhoon Noul will exit from Philippines on Monday evening from the northern tip of Luzon. The many islands there will get a thorough drenching.

By Monday night the southern tip of Taiwan will get a good wind lashing after which the storm will swing away north-eastward. So only southern Taiwan will be partially affected. Otherwise Taiwan is safe from Noul. Noul is not going to affect mainland Japan.

THIS IS OUR TRACK FORECAST FOR TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG)

THE JTWC DIFFERS ON TRACK AND INTENSITY

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center differs slightly from what we have predicted.

Firstly, it predicts a path that almost kisses the northern tip of Luzon as the point of impact

Secondly, it foresees winds of a massive 220 kph, gusts up to 270 kph when typhoon Noul makes landfall into Luzon.

Typhoon Noul (Dodong): Target Luzon, Philippines. May 10, 2015. Taiwan To Be Affected Too

UPDATE MAY 7, 2015

It is now certain that Typhoon Noul is going to hit Philippines. The point of impact is going to be southern part of east sea coast of Luzon on May 10, 2015. At Baler in Aurora Province to be exact.

It will pass through Manila and then exit from the country after 24 hours. It will enter the South China Sea somewhat weakened but it will then start intensifying and move north. On May 12 it will brush past the east coast of Taiwan.

Presently it has wind speeds of 120 kph. When it impacts Philippines on May 10, 2015, 140+ kph winds will lash the country.

Typhoon Noul (Dodong) is now 1450 kilometers from the Luzon coast where it will hit in three days time.

Another worry for the Philippines is that even when Noul is yet to visit it another bigger typhoon is in the making. Future typhoon Dolphin has already formed and will soon achieve cyclone status.

Forecast tracks for typhoon Dolphin (Egay) show that the track edging towards Philippines. The problem is Dolphin is expected to be bigger than Noul.

We expect that by May 15 Dolphin will have the country worried.

TYPHOON NOUL WV SATELLITE IMAGE. 0500 HOURS, MAY 7, 2015

THE JTWC DIFFERS SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WE PREDICT. THE POINT OF IMPACT IS SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH. IT ALSO PREDICTS A DIRECT HIT ON TAIWAN.

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 It is very likely that typhoon Noul will hit northern Philippines at Luzon on May 10, 2015.

It is presently 230 kilometers North-east of Palau. It has passed Yap island and is 60 kilometers west of the island. Sustained winds are 65 kph. Central pressure is 1000 Mb.

Not a very powerful storm. But the JTWC predicts that by the time it nears Philippines it will have winds in excess of 200 kph. Our estimate is sustained winds of 120 kph on May 10, 2015.

The JTWC believes Noul will not make a direct hit on Luzon. We believe it will do so.

Going a little further, we also believe after leaving Philippines Noul will intensify again and move north and move close by Taiwan giving it a real fright. It is not expected to hit Japan.

But another bigger typhoon Dolphin (Egay in Philippines) may hit Japan. Dolphin is going to form soon.

TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) SATELLITE IMAGE 0500 HOURS GMT MAY 6, 2015

Two Typhoons, Noul (Dodong) And Dolphin (Egay) In Western Pacific

TYPHOON DOLPHIN UPDATE: MAY 11, 2015

Typhoon Dolphin (Egay) is going to turn into a very powerful storm in a few days. Guam is going to be affected. Latest forecasts say Philippines will be spared as Dolphin will swing away north before landfall. This is expected to happen on May 16, 2015. Anything can happen in five days. Philippines should keep its fingers crossed.

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 FLASH: The JTWC in its latest track and intensity forecast says Typhoon Noul is likely to pass northern tip of Luzon on May 10 with speeds of 120 knots. There are still 5 days to go and the path of Noul is slowly curving towards Philippines. And with each successive forecast the intensity of typhoon Noul is increasing. Bad news for the country.
Update - May 5, 2015

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THIS FORECAST MAP SHOWS AN INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC ON MAY 9, 2015. TYPHOON NOUL IS LEAVING PHILIPPINES WATERS WHILE TYPHOON DOLPHIN IS GROWING STRONGER

The Western Pacific Ocean is in overdrive. Even as tropical storm Noul is strengthening into a typhoon and moving towards Philippines, another typhoon Dolphin is brewing in the same waters.

Let us talk about Noul first. The storm is about 100 miles east of Yap Island and moving WNW. It is strengthening all the time. Our very conservative estimates say the sustained winds in the storm are 75 kph. In the next four days it will ponderously move in the same (WNW) direction. By May 10 it will be a few hundred kilometers away from the Luzon coast. By then it will have intensified into a 140 kph storm.

According to the latest forecasts by the JTWC issued at 0900 hours GMT today the typhoon will be throwing out sustained winds of 115 knots by May 9. A super typhoon has winds of 130 knots. Inching close.

Our prediction is typhoon Noul will not make landfall into Luzon, Philippines but veer away sharply and move north on May 10-11. Even then the flail-clouds of the powerful storm will bring heavy rains to northern Philippines on these days.

Predicting even further, we believe typhoon will not hit Taiwan nor the Japanese mainland. We expect the storm will swing north-east and miss Japan. But this we cannot say with surety at this stage.

Now coming to typhoon Dolphin. It is presently an innocuous low pressure area bobbing in the Pacific Ocean. On May 7, 2015, it will start intensifying and turn into typhoon Dolphin. Dolphin will be even more powerful than Noul. But fortunately for Philippines it is expected to swing northwards on May 10 and miss hitting the country.

Our predictions at this stage are based on what reliable global forecast models say. Things can change as tropical cyclones are inherently fickle by nature. We shall keep you informed with latest updates and monitor any changes in the path of the two typhoons.

Typhoon Noul: Threat To Philippines On May 10, 2015?

UPDATE, MAY 3, 2015

Future typhoon Noul has already formed. It is a tropical storm now. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has named it "Six". And it has issued its track forecast. There is some disagreement amongst various forecast models as to whether Noul will hit Philippines or not. Hence the JTWC has remained non-committal on the subject.

Keep in touch for our updates.

THE TRACK FORECAST FOR FUTURE TYPHOON NOUL BY JTWC. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER NOUL WILL HIT PHILIPPINES OR NOT.

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Yesterday we had hinted at the possibility of a typhoon (Noul) forming in the Western Pacific in a few days. We had also said that the typhoon would move towards the Philippines but swing north towards Japan without hitting the country.

We are not so certain now.

It is certain that a typhoon is going to form in the Western Pacific in the coming days. It will start as a low pressure area that will crystallize in a couple of days around May 4, 2015, between Guam and Papua New Guinea, east of Palau. This low pressure will then slowly intensify into typhoon Noul and move towards Philippines

Will typhoon Noul hit Philippines?

Opinions differ between the two major forecast systems.

The American GFS says the tropical cyclone will head towards Luzon in northern Philippines but swing north on May 10, 2015.

The European Forecast Model predicts Philippines is in for a hit at Samar Island in eastern Visayas on May 9-10.

Typhoon Noul is going to be no Haiyan or Hagupit but it will be a considerable storm.

The Western Pacific typhoon season in 2015 got off with a rollicking start with super typhoon Maysak. Now Noul is coming. Hopefully not to Philippines.

See Typhoon Noul LIVE

Typhoon Maysak To Enter North Philippines In Few Hours

Maysak may not be a super typhoon now but it is still packing winds of 70 kph, gusts up to 110 kph as it prepares to enter northern Philippines at Luzon Province.

It will make landfall into Cagayan, between Casiguran and Baler. The most affected will be central Luzon. The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will happen there. The storm will pass through the country in 24 hours.

Expect the strongest winds on the eastern coast of Luzon.

By the morning of Monday it will be all over.

See Typhoon MAYSAK live at http://tropicalcyclonelive.blogspot.in/2015/03/see-typhoon-maysak-live-april-2015.html

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS TYPHOON MAYSAK ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHERN PHILIPPINES

UPDATE: APRIL 5, 2015

The storm has entered Luzon. Within the next 12 hours it will move into the South China Sea. It is a mere depression now. But the island can expect heavy rainfall in the next 12 hours.

THE STORM WILL MOVE PAST LUZON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS JUST A DEPRESSION NOW.

A Greatly Weakened Typhoon Maysak Will Hit Northern Philippines April 5 Morning

Typhoon Maysak will weaken considerably by the time it makes landfall into Northern Philippines at Luzon and Cagayan on the morning of April 5, 2015.

After wreaking havoc on Yap Islands super typhoon Maysak is moving towards northern Philippines. Currently it lies about 1700 kilometers from the coast of eastern Luzon. 

It is already a super typhoon. In the coming hours it will intensify even more. It will be at its strongest at midnight tonight. The JTWC predicts it will then have sustained winds of 280 kph with gusts up to an astounding 330 kph.

But within 24 hours it will start weakening as it continues moving Philippines. Our estimate is that by the time it makes landfall into northern Philippines on the morning of April 5, 2015 (Local Time) it will be just  whipping up winds of 75 kph, gusts up to 100 kph.

The coast of eastern Luzon can expect winds of about 60-80 kph on April 5. Accompanied, of course, by heavy rains. Mercifully Maysak will weaken a lot by that time. The imagination boggles when one images Maysak hitting Philippines with its present strength. Another Haiyan.

UPDATE: APRIL 2, 2015

There is no doubt that typhoon Maysak is already weakening as it moves towards northern Philippines. Though still a powerful storm now, it is weakening by the hour. It is expected to make landfall into Luzon on Saturday late night, April 4, 2015. At that time it will be little more than a weak tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 60-70 kph. Or less

So there is little peril for Philippines. Though the heavy rains may cause problems.

THE WEATHER FORECAST MAP SHOWS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE MAYSAK ENTERING LUZON ON LATE NIGHT SATURDAY, APRIL 4, 2015.

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LATEST TRACK FORECAST AND WIND SPEEDS (IN KNOTS) FOR SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK BY JTWC

Typhoon MAYSAK A Super Typhoon Now, But Will Weaken By Phllippines Landfall

TYPHOON MAYSAK AT 0630 HRS GMT, MARCH 31, 2015

Typhoon Maysak is turning into a super typhoon. The JTWC estimates that by the time it passes by Yap Island in the next 24 hours it will have metamorphosed into a howling entity with winds of 260+ kph. Gusts of an awesome 300 kph.

But though looking at a satellite image of the West Pacific Ocean one fears the most for Philippines, as the storm is moving west, most forecast models say Maysak will weaken considerably by the time it reaches northern Philippines in Bikol-Calabarzon-Luzon areas on April 4-5, 2015.

By April 2nd it will have started weakening.  By 3rd April the wind speeds will have dropped to 120 kph. By April 4 it will be a 100 kph storm. By Saturday, April 5 when Maysak makes landfall into Bikol and North Visayas it will be a mere deep depression.

It is expected to pass through central Philippines. Through the Visayas and bring torrential rainfall in the region. But there is little chance of strong winds the area. Deep depressions have maximum winds of 50-65 kph.

So in conclusion, we can say Philippines can rest easy. We shall continuously monitor the situation and give you latest significant updates.

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Will Typhoon MAYSAK Hit Philippines?

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Typhoon Maysak has intensified over the last 24 hours. Presently it is leaving the Micronesian Islands of Pananu and Chuuk and moving west in the Pacific Ocean. Present sustained winds are 100 kph, gusts up to 140 kph.

After 48 hours it is going to smash into Yak Island with super typhoon winds (If JTWC predictions are to be believed) of 220 kph.

What after that. The JTWC is non-committal. Its forecast goes only until 3rd of April, 2015. At that stage Maysak wll be a few hundred kilometers away from Philippines coast.

We have rely on the mainstream forecast models to know beyond that. Let us examine what each of the global models say as to the track and intensity of typhoon Maysak. Please note that we only consider the GFS and the ECMWF models as reliable. Nevertheless we have considered all the models in our analysis.

GFS - Maysak will intensify in the coming days into a formidable storm. But by the time it makes landfall into northern Philippines (Luzon) it will have weakened into a mere deep depression on April 5, 2015.

ECMWF - The European Model agrees with the GFS Model. Maysak will weaken before making landfall into Philippines.

Canadian Model - Typhoon Maysak will be a powerful cyclone when it hits northern Luzon on April 4, 2015.

Navgem - A mid-sized typhoon Maysak will hit northern Luzon on April 5, 2015.

JMA - Maysak will be a mere depression when it enters Luzon on April 4, 2015.

In conclusion we may say that though typhoon Maysak may well strengthen into a powerful storm in the next few days, by the time it makes landfall into Philippines, it will have weakened considerably. May be a deep depression which will bring heavy rains to Luzon on April 4-5, 2015.

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