Bay Of Bengal To Turn Very Stormy In End of May 2015

VERY STORMY BAY OF BENGAL IN THE COMING DAYS 

 As the stormy weather near the Kerala coast in the Arabian Sea gradually peters out, the Bay of Bengal is going to turn very stormy in the next ten days, starting from May 18, 2015. I guess the monsoons are gaining momentum in the Bay of Bengal. Just short of a tropical cyclone.

 Till May 26-27, the entire Bay of Bengal is going to turn very rough with 40-50 kph winds and waves. The Indian east coast will receive a lot of rainfall in the coming days, starting with Tamil Nadu, then coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh eventually. But the heaviest rains are going to occur in Myanmar. Expect flooding in the country around May 25, 2015.

 See the rain forecast map for the coming 15 days for South Asia below.

Tropical Cyclone Chances In North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal) Uncertain

The chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the North Indian Ocean has receded according to latest forecasts from various models.

A cyclone or not? In the North Indian Ocean. That is the question now.

In the last few days the GFS Model had been gung-ho  about the prospect of an Arabian Sea cyclone. The Canadian CMC had supported while the European Model (ECMWF) had disagreed going so far as to say that the storm would form in the Bay of Bengal.

Come today and all the forecast models are showing flat storm less  forecasts for the North Indian Ocean. The GFS says no cyclone. The CMC says no cyclone. The ECMWF says no cyclone.

What has happened? Has the ocean turned docile? Some meteorologists say the over-active Pacific Ocean is hurling one typhoon after another (Noul, then Dolphin) and sucking off the moisture from the Indian Ocean. Going by this reasoning will the North Indian Ocean become active storm-wise after the demise of super typhoon Dolphin in a week's time? Time will tell.

In the mean time we will closely monitor the Indian Ocean and keep you updated on any incipient tropical cyclone.

Now is the time. Now is the season. Hope the Indian Ocean does not disappoint.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AT 0300 HRS GMT TODAY. WILL IT SPAWN A STORM?

Massive Tropical Cyclone (Ashobaa) To Hit Gujarat May 21, 2015?

LATEST UPDATE MAY 16, 2015

There is no possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal in the coming next few days. Please read our latest forecasts and do not go by earlier articles.
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 It is possible that a powerful cyclone (Ashobaa) may soon form in the Arabian Sea in North Indian Ocean, which will intensify and make landfall into Gujarat state of Western India on May 21, 2015.

At presently only the reliable American GFS forecast system predicts this storm but we have seen from experience that generally GFS forecasts are accurate. We shall closely monitor the situation and keep you updated with latest forecasts as soon as we come across them.

According to the GFS, the cyclone will start off as a low pressure area on May 17, near the Karnataka-Kerala coast and then move north and intensify into a tropical cyclone (Ashobaa). The storm is likely to hit Gujarat on May 21, 2015.

We will monitor future GFS forecasts and see if the cyclone formation is sustained. We shall also observe the European Forecast Model and see whether it supports the GFS prediction.

The situation being fluid, we have to wait and see if the cyclone forms and what its track turns out to be. Gujarat, Pakistan or Oman?

Keep in touch for latest updates.

FORECAST MA SHOWING ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE ASHOBAA HITTING GUJARAT ON MAY 21, 2015

Super Typhoon Dolphin No Threat To Philippines

UPDATE MAY 16, 2015: DOLPHIN A SUPER TYPHOON NOW

Typhoon Dolphin in a few hours will turn into a howling super typhoon with winds of a staggering 275-330 kph! Just yesterday it seemed it would mature at most into a category 4 hurricane, but favourable conditions will enable it to join the league of Haiyan, Kammuri, Vongfong, Hagupit and the recent Maysak. All in the West Pacific Ocean.

Luckily it has already departed from Guam and its track suggests it will not hit mainland Japan. It will swing north away from the Philippines. So except for small non-decrepit island in the Pacific, humans are safe from Dolphin's fury.

The Pacific Ocean seems to have turned into a factory manufacturing super storms. Something to think about.

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TYPHOON DOLPHIN NEARING GUAM NOW. UPDATE: MAY 15, 2015

 Powerful typhoon Dolphin is nearing Guam now. Contrary to earlier predictions it will not turn out to be a super typhoon but Guam can expect sustained winds of 150+ kph. The good news for the island is the storm will pass slightly north of it , not a direct hit.

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TYPHOON DOLPHIN UPDATE MAY 14, 2015

Typhoon Dolphin is on its way to becoming a super typhoon. The JTWC predicts that by May 18, 2015, it will turn into a howling monster with winds of 240+ kph.

Luckily for Guam Dolphin will turn into a super typhoon 3 days after it passes through the island. Guam is in for a direct hit on Friday evening (Local time) with wind speeds of 200+ kph, gusts up to 240 kph.

Philippines will remain safe from typhoon Dolphin as after passing Guam it will swing north. It is at that stage it will reach super typhoon status.

Japan will not be affected by the typhoon as it will continue curving away from the mainland. The Japanese historical island of Iwo Jima is for a direct hit with winds of 230 kph on May 19, 2015

One wonders why the Pacific Ocean is churning out super typhoons by the fistful whereas the Atlantic Ocean has become relatively docile. An interesting topic for weather scientists and climatologists.

Some meteorologists believe an over active Pacific Ocean is stifling cyclone development in the North Indian Ocean.

LATEST TRACK FORECAST (0300 GMT MAY 14, 2015) FOR TYPHOON DOLPHIN

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 Another powerful typhoon is brewing in the Western Pacific Ocean after Noul is fading into oblivion. Typhoon Dolphin has already formed and is intensifying all the time.

Dolphin will be as powerful as Noul was. But the good news for Philippines is that it is not going to hit it.

Guam is not going to be so lucky. Typhoon Dolphin will hit it directly on May 15, 2015 with sustained winds of 150 kph.

After that typhoon Dolphin will swing north, away from Philippines. It is not expected to affect Japan either.

TRACK FORECAST FOR TYPHOON DOLPHIN ACCORDING TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL

TRACK FORECAST OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN BY JTWC

North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay Of Bengal) To Spawn A Cyclone By May End

UPDATE: MAY 11, 2015 
The situation is confusing and volatile. The GFS forecast today denies any possible cyclone. The NAVGEM Model says a storm will form on May 13, 2015 near the Sri Lanka coast, rapidly intensify into a cyclone and hit the Andhra coast in India on May 16. The Canadian CMC Model agrees. The GFS predicts only a low pressure area. Not very reliable.

We will close watch and keep you updated. Meanwhile you can watch and monitor North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal) yourselves at this link on our STORM TRACKER

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 Forecast models are throwing out confusing forecasts of a tropical cyclone developing in the North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay Of Bengal) by the end of May, 2015.

The cyclone is likely to develop around May 20-25. Where? That is not certain.

There are two possible scenarios.

First scenario is the storm develops in the Bay of Bengal of the coast of Tamil Nadu around May 20. The storm then intensifies and moves north and hits the Odisha-West Bengal coast by May 25, 2015. This may be a powerful cyclone with acentral minimum pressure of around 975 Mb.

SCENARIO 1: MAY 25. CYCLONE ASHOBAA HITS ODISHA-WEST-BENGAL COAST

Second scenario is the cyclone forms of the coast of Kerala on May 20, then moves slowly northwards along the Indian west coast and makes landfall into Gujarat on May 26, 2015.

SCENARIO 2: MAY 26. CYCLONE ASHOBAA HEADS TOWARDS GUJARAT

There are still 10-15 days to go so stating anything with certainty is well nigh impossible but it appears the North Indian Ocean is pregnant with possibilities of a tropical cyclone developing around May 20, 2015.

The time is ripe. The ocean waters are well heated to power and feed a cyclone. And May-June is the time that the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea throw out a cyclone or two.

Keep in touch for updates and for latest forecasts.

Typhoon Noul (Dodong) Update: Will Hit Santa Ana In Luzon Sunday Night

Update: 1230 Hours GMT, May 9, 2015

Typhoon Noul (Dodong) is only going to make a brief landfall at Santa Ana, Cagayan Valley, the northern most tip of Luzon, Philippines on Sunday late evening (Local Time).

Presently the storm is whipping 150 kph winds gusts up to 180 kph. It is about 400 kilometers from Santa Ana, Cagayan Valley, Luzon, Philippines to where it is headed.

At landfall it will weaken a little. Winds will drop to 110 kph.

The adjoining islands of Palau, Batan and Babuyan will bear the brunt of the storm.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in these places. Cagayan Valley will see floods and there is extreme danger of landslides as torrential rains will fall there.

Taiwan is safe from typhoon Noul. It will pass a few hundred kilometers from the eastern coast of the country. Not much effect.

1130 GMT, MAY 9, 2015. LATEST IMAGE OF TYPHOON NOUL

LATEST TRACK FORECAST FOR TYPHOON NOUL DODONG BY JTWC ISSUED TODAY

Typhoon Noul To Hit Cagayan Valley, Luzon, Philippines Sunday (May10, 2015) Afternoon

Ground Zero is going to be Cagayan Valley, Luzon, northern Philippines. That is where typhoon Noul (Dodong) is going to enter the country. When? May 10, 2015. Sunday afternoon, Philippines Time. Wind speed at impact? 120 kph, gusts up to 150 kph.

But the country will get a taste of the typhoon tomorrow (Saturday) itself as the periphery of the storm will lash Catanduanes Island. Luckily for the island it will not be a direct impact so the full fury of the storm will not be felt. But expects strong winds and heavy showers.

Eastern coast of Luzon near the Cagayan Valley will not be so lucky as it will face the brunt of this tropical cyclone. Very heavy rains are expected in the northern half of Luzon. Manila will escape relatively unscathed as the path of the storm has shifted slightly north.

Typhoon Noul will exit from Philippines on Monday evening from the northern tip of Luzon. The many islands there will get a thorough drenching.

By Monday night the southern tip of Taiwan will get a good wind lashing after which the storm will swing away north-eastward. So only southern Taiwan will be partially affected. Otherwise Taiwan is safe from Noul. Noul is not going to affect mainland Japan.

THIS IS OUR TRACK FORECAST FOR TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG)

THE JTWC DIFFERS ON TRACK AND INTENSITY

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center differs slightly from what we have predicted.

Firstly, it predicts a path that almost kisses the northern tip of Luzon as the point of impact

Secondly, it foresees winds of a massive 220 kph, gusts up to 270 kph when typhoon Noul makes landfall into Luzon.

Typhoon Noul (Dodong): Target Luzon, Philippines. May 10, 2015. Taiwan To Be Affected Too

UPDATE MAY 7, 2015

It is now certain that Typhoon Noul is going to hit Philippines. The point of impact is going to be southern part of east sea coast of Luzon on May 10, 2015. At Baler in Aurora Province to be exact.

It will pass through Manila and then exit from the country after 24 hours. It will enter the South China Sea somewhat weakened but it will then start intensifying and move north. On May 12 it will brush past the east coast of Taiwan.

Presently it has wind speeds of 120 kph. When it impacts Philippines on May 10, 2015, 140+ kph winds will lash the country.

Typhoon Noul (Dodong) is now 1450 kilometers from the Luzon coast where it will hit in three days time.

Another worry for the Philippines is that even when Noul is yet to visit it another bigger typhoon is in the making. Future typhoon Dolphin has already formed and will soon achieve cyclone status.

Forecast tracks for typhoon Dolphin (Egay) show that the track edging towards Philippines. The problem is Dolphin is expected to be bigger than Noul.

We expect that by May 15 Dolphin will have the country worried.

TYPHOON NOUL WV SATELLITE IMAGE. 0500 HOURS, MAY 7, 2015

THE JTWC DIFFERS SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WE PREDICT. THE POINT OF IMPACT IS SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH. IT ALSO PREDICTS A DIRECT HIT ON TAIWAN.

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 It is very likely that typhoon Noul will hit northern Philippines at Luzon on May 10, 2015.

It is presently 230 kilometers North-east of Palau. It has passed Yap island and is 60 kilometers west of the island. Sustained winds are 65 kph. Central pressure is 1000 Mb.

Not a very powerful storm. But the JTWC predicts that by the time it nears Philippines it will have winds in excess of 200 kph. Our estimate is sustained winds of 120 kph on May 10, 2015.

The JTWC believes Noul will not make a direct hit on Luzon. We believe it will do so.

Going a little further, we also believe after leaving Philippines Noul will intensify again and move north and move close by Taiwan giving it a real fright. It is not expected to hit Japan.

But another bigger typhoon Dolphin (Egay in Philippines) may hit Japan. Dolphin is going to form soon.

TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) SATELLITE IMAGE 0500 HOURS GMT MAY 6, 2015

Two Typhoons, Noul (Dodong) And Dolphin (Egay) In Western Pacific

TYPHOON DOLPHIN UPDATE: MAY 11, 2015

Typhoon Dolphin (Egay) is going to turn into a very powerful storm in a few days. Guam is going to be affected. Latest forecasts say Philippines will be spared as Dolphin will swing away north before landfall. This is expected to happen on May 16, 2015. Anything can happen in five days. Philippines should keep its fingers crossed.

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 FLASH: The JTWC in its latest track and intensity forecast says Typhoon Noul is likely to pass northern tip of Luzon on May 10 with speeds of 120 knots. There are still 5 days to go and the path of Noul is slowly curving towards Philippines. And with each successive forecast the intensity of typhoon Noul is increasing. Bad news for the country.
Update - May 5, 2015

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THIS FORECAST MAP SHOWS AN INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC ON MAY 9, 2015. TYPHOON NOUL IS LEAVING PHILIPPINES WATERS WHILE TYPHOON DOLPHIN IS GROWING STRONGER

The Western Pacific Ocean is in overdrive. Even as tropical storm Noul is strengthening into a typhoon and moving towards Philippines, another typhoon Dolphin is brewing in the same waters.

Let us talk about Noul first. The storm is about 100 miles east of Yap Island and moving WNW. It is strengthening all the time. Our very conservative estimates say the sustained winds in the storm are 75 kph. In the next four days it will ponderously move in the same (WNW) direction. By May 10 it will be a few hundred kilometers away from the Luzon coast. By then it will have intensified into a 140 kph storm.

According to the latest forecasts by the JTWC issued at 0900 hours GMT today the typhoon will be throwing out sustained winds of 115 knots by May 9. A super typhoon has winds of 130 knots. Inching close.

Our prediction is typhoon Noul will not make landfall into Luzon, Philippines but veer away sharply and move north on May 10-11. Even then the flail-clouds of the powerful storm will bring heavy rains to northern Philippines on these days.

Predicting even further, we believe typhoon will not hit Taiwan nor the Japanese mainland. We expect the storm will swing north-east and miss Japan. But this we cannot say with surety at this stage.

Now coming to typhoon Dolphin. It is presently an innocuous low pressure area bobbing in the Pacific Ocean. On May 7, 2015, it will start intensifying and turn into typhoon Dolphin. Dolphin will be even more powerful than Noul. But fortunately for Philippines it is expected to swing northwards on May 10 and miss hitting the country.

Our predictions at this stage are based on what reliable global forecast models say. Things can change as tropical cyclones are inherently fickle by nature. We shall keep you informed with latest updates and monitor any changes in the path of the two typhoons.

Typhoon Noul: Threat To Philippines On May 10, 2015?

UPDATE, MAY 3, 2015

Future typhoon Noul has already formed. It is a tropical storm now. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has named it "Six". And it has issued its track forecast. There is some disagreement amongst various forecast models as to whether Noul will hit Philippines or not. Hence the JTWC has remained non-committal on the subject.

Keep in touch for our updates.

THE TRACK FORECAST FOR FUTURE TYPHOON NOUL BY JTWC. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER NOUL WILL HIT PHILIPPINES OR NOT.

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Yesterday we had hinted at the possibility of a typhoon (Noul) forming in the Western Pacific in a few days. We had also said that the typhoon would move towards the Philippines but swing north towards Japan without hitting the country.

We are not so certain now.

It is certain that a typhoon is going to form in the Western Pacific in the coming days. It will start as a low pressure area that will crystallize in a couple of days around May 4, 2015, between Guam and Papua New Guinea, east of Palau. This low pressure will then slowly intensify into typhoon Noul and move towards Philippines

Will typhoon Noul hit Philippines?

Opinions differ between the two major forecast systems.

The American GFS says the tropical cyclone will head towards Luzon in northern Philippines but swing north on May 10, 2015.

The European Forecast Model predicts Philippines is in for a hit at Samar Island in eastern Visayas on May 9-10.

Typhoon Noul is going to be no Haiyan or Hagupit but it will be a considerable storm.

The Western Pacific typhoon season in 2015 got off with a rollicking start with super typhoon Maysak. Now Noul is coming. Hopefully not to Philippines.

See Typhoon Noul LIVE

Western Pacific Typhoon NOUL (2015) Imminent: Not To Affect Philippines

A typhoon is on the horizon in the Western Pacific in May 2015. Forecasts hint at the possibility of Typhoon Noul forming around May 8, 2015. These forecasts also say (At the present, at least) that the forthcoming storm will not hit Philippines but swing away towards Japan.

But at this juncture we cannot say this with emphasis. it is still a week before Typhoon Noul forms. Anything can happen after that. We can only hope the typhoon faithfully stick to the forecasts and not hit Philippines.

The picture will become clearer in the coming days. One thing is certain. A tropical storm is brewing in the West Pacific.