It is now certain that Typhoon Noul is going to hit Philippines. The point of impact is going to be southern part of east sea coast of Luzon on May 10, 2015. At Baler in Aurora Province to be exact.
It will pass through Manila and then exit from the country after 24 hours. It will enter the South China Sea somewhat weakened but it will then start intensifying and move north. On May 12 it will brush past the east coast of Taiwan.
Presently it has wind speeds of 120 kph. When it impacts Philippines on May 10, 2015, 140+ kph winds will lash the country.
Typhoon Noul (Dodong) is now 1450 kilometers from the Luzon coast where it will hit in three days time.
Another worry for the Philippines is that even when Noul is yet to visit it another bigger typhoon is in the making. Future typhoon Dolphin has already formed and will soon achieve cyclone status.
Forecast tracks for typhoon Dolphin (Egay) show that the track edging towards Philippines. The problem is Dolphin is expected to be bigger than Noul.
We expect that by May 15 Dolphin will have the country worried.
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| TYPHOON NOUL WV SATELLITE IMAGE. 0500 HOURS, MAY 7, 2015 |
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| THE JTWC DIFFERS SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WE PREDICT. THE POINT OF IMPACT IS SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH. IT ALSO PREDICTS A DIRECT HIT ON TAIWAN. |
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It is very likely that typhoon Noul will hit northern Philippines at Luzon on May 10, 2015.
It is presently 230 kilometers North-east of Palau. It has passed Yap island and is 60 kilometers west of the island. Sustained winds are 65 kph. Central pressure is 1000 Mb.
Not a very powerful storm. But the JTWC predicts that by the time it nears Philippines it will have winds in excess of 200 kph. Our estimate is sustained winds of 120 kph on May 10, 2015.
The JTWC believes Noul will not make a direct hit on Luzon. We believe it will do so.
Going a little further, we also believe after leaving Philippines Noul will intensify again and move north and move close by Taiwan giving it a real fright. It is not expected to hit Japan.
But another bigger typhoon Dolphin (Egay in Philippines) may hit Japan. Dolphin is going to form soon.
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| TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) SATELLITE IMAGE 0500 HOURS GMT MAY 6, 2015 |
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