Weakened Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa Will Enter Oman Tomorrow Night

Cyclone Ashobaa is weakening. It will enter northeastern Oman in the Al Sharqiyah Region near Masirah Island tomorrow late night. That is the night of June 11, 2015. The towns of Hayy and Dawwah will be most affected.

It will dissipate quickly and move inland into central Oman in the Al Dakhiliyah region bringing it some rains.

Sur will get heavy rains. Muscat will receive only a drizzle.

If the storm moves inland after dissipating as a low very heavy rains are expected in coastal areas around the town of Hayy.

It is also possible that the storm might make landfall in the morning of June 12, 2015.

Since the cyclone is weakening, only winds of 55-65 km/h will be felt in the coastal areas of the country. That is the area which will receive the most rains.

It is also not certain if the cyclone will make landfall into Oman at all. The reliable European computer forecast model ECMWF, predicts a demise mid sea near the coast of the country.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT CYCLONE ASHOBAA WILL WEAKEN INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO OMAN. BUT THE JTWC IS BULLISH. IT EXPECTS WINDS OF 100 KM/H ON IMPACT. IT IS DOUBTFUL IF THE CYCLONE WILL ENTER OMAN AT ALL OR NOT.

Storm Forms Off Sri Lankan Coast: Cyclone Ashobaa?

A low pressure has formed 200 kilometers SSE from the Sri Lankan coast (4.6 N Latitude, 82.6 E Longitude) that has NOAA raising its ears and start tracking it. NOAA calls it 95B. The stretch of south Bay of Bengal from Sri Lanka to the Indian Andaman Islands has been very turbulent since the last few days. There have been frequent downpours in Sri Lanka leading to floods.

Now the turbulent weather is crystallizing into a storm. Earlier we had predicted a depression, but now it seems a cyclone is in the offing. A very large diameter cyclone. Not very windy as compared to the formidable Phailin and Hudhud but a big trouble-maker.

Yeah. Chances are this storm that hovers south of Sri Lanka is going to metamorphose into cyclone Ashobaa. The eye of the storm will become visible on December 28, 2014. And sustained winds will cross the threshold of 64 kph (To be termed a cyclone). But one doubts whether the Indian Met Department will christen it "Ashobaa". One has observed that the esteemed met dept, unlike the Americans and Australians, is very reluctant in christening storms. They prefer the term deep depression which need not be named.

We feel the current storm is going to qualify enough to be 'promoted' to a cyclone. But the venerable IMD has the powers....

Anyway... The cyclone is expected to move north along the coast of India and reach Bangladesh on January 2, 2015. So expect windy and wet weather along the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Odisha and West Bengal. Sri Lanka, of course, is in for more precipitation in the coming days.

The heaviest rains will be coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh.

But we should keep one thing in mind. This is not June or September-October. This is mid-winter. The end of the month of December. So the waters of the Bay of Bengal are going to colder as we ascend the latitudes. So the cyclone, if it forms, is going to be strongest when it will be in the warm waters of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. As it moves further north it will start weakening. The storm will be strongest on December 29, 2014. Then the decline will start.

We feel it will be best, a deep depression, A big rain-maker, but no cyclone.

We shall continuously monitor the upcoming storm and give you the latest updates.

See the Bay of Bengal (December 2014) depression LIVE.

See Rain Forecast Maps For South Asia for the rainfall owing to the upcoming depression.

Live animated water vapor satellite images of Storm 95B in the Bay of Bengal

The forecast track path of 95B in the Bay of Bengal