MAY 9, 2017, TUESDAY
Hopes of an early arrival of southwest monsoon this year may be belied. Latest forecast by the sensitive CFS model says it will hit Kerala in early June. Earlier expectations that it may come by May end are dissipating as atmospheric conditions have changed in the last fortnight.
But some predictions remain. The Arabian Sea will go into turbo mode as soon as June sets in. But the scene of action, the ground zero so to speak has changed from the coast near Kerala to south western part of the sea, nearer to Oman.
As May ends the beginning of June will see that portion of the sea turn tumultuous. It will churn out many clusters of powerful thunderstorms powered by the approaching monsoon. From that area of turmoil will emerge one or two tropical depressions/cyclones. These are likely to move to either Oman or Balochistan.
Since this initial burst of monsoon energy will be diverted towards Oman by June 10-12, 2017, the onset of rains on Indian west coast will be delayed. Monsoon may reach Mumbai by June 15-20. The onset over Gujarat may have to wait till June 25.
Though there will be very heavy precipitation in Kerala and Karnataka in early June.
We have wait and see if the expected Arabian Sea storm in early June does go to Oman, or will it change course and steer to Sindh/Gujarat.
It will all start here after May 23-24, 2017. The monsoon will slowly build up off the Somalia coast in the form of violent thunderstorms and torrential downpour in the sea. This will slowly move towards the Indian coast in the next 10 days after that, culminating in a Arabian Sea storm around June 10.
Unlike in 2016, the Bay of Bengal stream of monsoon will come to life almost 10 days after the Arabian Sea springs into action, after June 10, 2017.
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