Expected Arabian Sea Tropical Storm (Ashobaa?): Ramifications For Indian Monsoons

Reliable international forecast models are predicting the formation of a tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea within days. The initial low pressure area will form tomorrow in south east Arabian Sea tomorrow which will intensify into a cyclone (Ashobaa) or a deep depression on June 6, 2015.

Whatever form the storm takes, the question arises what influence will it have on the presently gloomy picture of the Indian monsoons 2015?

The answer mainly lies on the path/track of the storm. Gujarat? Pakistan? Or Oman (May be south-eastern Iran too).

Wherever the storm goes the region is going to get a deluge when we talk of rainfall (Disregarding the harm caused by the winds).

If it goes to Pakistan it is going to relieve greatly the water situation in Sindh and Balochistan. Of course Oman too would welcome rains.

If it turns towards Gujarat and then moves inland through Rajasthan and then onto Haryana and Delhi it will be like God smiling on the farmers of these dry areas. Storms like these dump inches of water in a day and would greatly relieve the agricultural woes of north western India.

If the storm does not come to India, it will suck up all the water vapor and energy of the monsoons and dump it some where else.

But who are we to decide? Nature and Mother Earth will do as she sees fit.

The  track of the impending storm will become clearer by June 6, 2015 when the accurate and venerable JTWC (And our own esteemed IMD) will come out with their predictions.

We wait in anticipation. A storm in a year expected to be a drought year would be most welcome.

Related: Latest Forecasts For Future Cyclone ASHOBAA

THE GATHERING STORM: SATELLITE IMAGE OF SOUTH ASIA (1200 HOURS GMT TODAY) SHOWS THE BIRTH OF A TROPICAL STORM