UPDATE, AUGUST 24, 2016, WEDNESDAY
We have already said it is difficult to pinpoint where it will rain as the system is very unpredictable. Forecast models are changing their predictions frequently.
It rained in Sindh where the rain possibility was low. A freaky unpredictable cyclonic circulation. One can expect anything in the next 72 hours.
But we can say more or less that it will rain heavily in some places in north and central Gujarat till Thursday morning. After that showers in Kutch perhaps in the day. Not much rain is expected in Saurashtra.
Moreover the system is weak and is likely to dissipate by Saturday.
AUGUST 24, 2016, WEDNESDAY UPDATE
The cyclonic circulation over southern Rajasthan persists. It will move over Kutch and then Saurashtra on Friday. It will dissipate on Sunday-Monday.
Till then showers will continue in Gujarat. First north Gujarat. It will rain in and around Ahmedabad till Thursday. Then the rains will shift to Kutch and Saurashtra.
It is hard to pinpoint the exact areas where it will rain but Saurashtra can expect showers till Sunday. Especially Rajkot on Friday. Heavy rains in Jamnagar area Thursday morning.
FORECASTS FOR AUGUST 24-25-26
Bhuj: Light rain from 10 AM TO 4 PM today (Wednesday).
Surendranagar: Heavy rain Thursday night to Friday morning.
Rajkot: Heavy showers on Friday.
Ahmedabad: 1-2 inches in next 12 hours.
Amreli: Cloudy with occasional drizzle.
Karachi: Thunderstorm on Saturday.
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AUGUST 23, 2016, TUESDAY
Two cyclonic circulations in India presently which are rain givers. One is over Rajasthan. The other which was over eastern Uttar Pradesh is moving to southern Rajasthan. By tomorrow both will join together. And remaining system is going to move into Gujarat soon.
This circulation will not be very strong but enough to throw down inches of rain wherever it goes.
And latest reliable models say it is going to hover over the state till next Monday, August 29, 2016, before it dissolves completely. First north Gujarat, then over Kutch. Then nearly stagnant over Saurashtra.
So one can expect quite of bit of rainfall in Gujarat in the coming 5-6 days. In all the regions.
We shall give area forecasts as we get them but it seems the rains will start in north and central Gujarat by tomorrow. Ahmedabad, Vadodara. Then a good spell over Kutch on Thursday-Friday. Finally downpours in Saurashtra. Rajkot expects 4-5 inches on Saturday.
But giving exact figures in days in advance is prone to errors. We shall give forecast updates.
Heavy showers in southern Rajasthan (Abu, Udaipur) till today midnight. It is raining in the region now.
Heavy showers in Kutch tomorrow, Wednesday, morning (Bhuj, Anjar, Rapar), north Gujarat (Ahmedabad, Himmatnagar, Deesa, Patan, Mehasana). The showers in these areas will start from today late night.
Heavy showers in Saurashtra on Wednesday afternoon (Jamnagar, Rajkot).
Heavy showers in Kutch on Thursday, Friday.
Flooding rains in Radhanpur, Deesa, Mehsana, Patan in next 48 hours.
11 comments:
Dear Editor,
Last time you gave the forecast for Jamnagar in saurashtra was 100% correct. This time we want to know whether Jamnagar will get any benefit from this cyclonic circulation, As you have mentioned that Rajkot will get 4-5 inches rain. So what about Jamnagar?? Pls answer....
Rain in Jamnagar will start on Wednesday early morning. At least 1-2 inches expected tomorrow.
what about karachi in particular and sindh in general?
Dear Editor,
Will Karachi get some rains from this cyclonic circulation ?
chance of flooding rain in bhuj?
Later in the week, perhaps.
It is possible.
thnx sir for rply
Good News Sir...All Gujarat Mate
Your views about rainfall in Amreli
Pl put updates
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