BAY OF BENGAL DEPRESSION TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO TAMIL NADU: ROANU COMING?

MAY 15, 2016

The low pressure area which has formed off the southeastern coast of Sri Lanka (Termed 91B by NOAA) will intensify soon into a depression and move into Tamil Nadu soon.

Under it's effects the state will witness heavy widespread rainfall for the next 48 hours till Tuesday, May 18. The rains will be accompanied by winds of 50-60 km/h.

The system may then move into the Bay of Bengal and hit coastal areas of Myanmar and Bangladesh by May 21. The system will intensify further on moving into the sea into a deep depression or even a moderate tropical cyclone, ROANU, on May 22.

It is also possible that cyclone ROANU may hit Bangladesh proper on May 24 and not Myanmar. If this happens windy rainfall is possible on the Odisha, West Bengal coast on May 23, 2016.

Some numerical forecast models suggest the system will meander around Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh for the next 3-4 days drenching these states thoroughly.

The MPE satellite image taken at 0530 GMT shows heavy rainfall in Sri Lanka presently. These rains will move into Tamil Nadu by early tomorrow.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates

Depression/Tropical Storm possible in Arabian Sea soon

There is a good possibility that a storm system will develop in the Arabian Sea in the coming one week. It is likely to bring rains to western India, Pakistan or Oman. We mention Oman because Arabian Sea storms have had a tendency to veer off towards Oman in recent years.

Bay of Bengal Cyclone ROANU Updates May 2016

MAY 22, 2016
ROANU NOW A DEPRESSION, OVER MYANMAR

Cyclone Roanu is a cyclone no more. It weakened to a deep depression and then into a depression. Soon it will weaken into a low pressure area.

At 0000 GMT today it lay over Myanmar adjoining to the Manipur border. It will bring heavy rains in north east Myanmar in the coming days.

The whole region will receive rains in the next 72 hours. See the forecast map showing expected precipitation till May 25. Northern Myanmar is in for heavy rains in the coming days as the low moves over the area.

MAY 21, 2016, 0830 GMT 

ROANU MAKES LANDFALL EARLIER AT BARISAL AT 0530 GMT 

The cyclone moved into Bangladesh earlier than expected. It took a slightly northerly course than was generally expected. It is moving between Dhaka and Chittagong into Tripura-Mizoram.

It is raining now in southeastern Bangladesh, parts of Myanmar, Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur. The rains will cease in the next 24-48 hours in these areas as the system moves on quickly and weakens into a low pressure area.

But strong winds are blowing on the southeastern Bangladesh coast. Our conservative estimate is 70-80 km/h.

This radar image  at 1100 GMT today shows the rains have already moved onto Mizoram and Tripura.

MAY 21, 2016, 0200 UTC, 0730 IST 

ROANU WILL MAKE LANDFALL BY AFTERNOON 

Presently it lies south of the West Bengal coast. Winds of 100 km/h, gusting up to 120 km/h.

It will hit the Bangladesh coastline at Chittagong at about 0800 GMT, that is 1400 local time. Winds of 70-80 km/h will lash southeast Bangladesh.

It is already raining heavily in southern Bangladesh. This will continue for another 24 hours. Heavy rains also expected in Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura and northern Myanmar.

Looking at the latest  Rain Estimator satellite image one sees heaviest precipitation is in northern Myanmar, Indian north eastern states and southeastern Bangladesh.

At 0830 Bangladesh time, the system lay just south of the country's coast at Kuakata.

The storm brought significant rainfall to coastal West Bengal. 93 mm in Contai, 103 mm in Digha and 70 mm in Canning.

Odisha received even heavier rains. Paradise recorded 163.9 mm till today morning. Puri's figure was 86.6 mm.

MAY 20, 2016, 0830 UTC, 1400 IST 

CYCLONE HOWLING AT 90-100 KM/H NEAR ODISHA COAST

Reliable monitors say cyclone ROANU is near Brahmapur on the Odisha coast. Central minimum pressure is 984.5 hPa. Sustained winds of 90-100 km/h. Gusts upto 120 km/h.

It is raining heavily on southern Odisha coast now. Brahmapur (Behrampur), Puri, Cuttack, Bhubaneswar and Jagatsinghpur are receiving torrential rains with winds of 50-60 km/h.

So vast is the storm that it is still raining heavily in Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam in Andhra. Rains will ease in Vijaywada soon.

The storm is throwing down phenomenal amount of rainfall. For instance Kalingapatnam in Srikakulam district of AP has yearly rain of 209.7 mm. ROANU dumped 144.6 mm in 24 hours ending today morning 0830 IST.

In the next 3 hours it will start moving away from the Odisha coast, tilting towards Bangladesh.

Heavy rains will soon move into Kolkata and Digha in West Bengal. It has already started raining in coastal West Bengal and Bangladesh.

Flooding warning.... Tripura, Mizoram and the Chittagong area of Bangladesh will receive upto 25 inches of rain in the next 72 hours, till May 23, 2016.

MAY 20, 2016, 0100 UTC, 0630 IST

CYCLONE ROANU WILL MOVE QUICKLY NOW

A word of warning for Bangladesh. The Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone ROANU is moving rapidly now. By today evening it will be near the southern Odisha coast. By Saturday night May 21, Bangladesh time, it will slam into the Chittagong area. Expected winds at impact: 90 km/h.

Presently it lies east of Visakhapatnam in the Bay of Bengal, off the coast at Srikakulam. Wind speeds are 70 km/h. But it will intensify to 100 km/h by today evening. It may weaken a little by Saturday.

Below is the rain forecast map. Owing to the tropical cyclone coastal Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, southern Bangladesh, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and northern Myanmar will receive heavy precipitation till may 23, 2016. The rains in northern coastal Andhra will continue for another 24 hours.

The areas in red will receive torrential rainfall till Monday thanks to the ROANU effect.

Expected rainfall May 20, 2016

Expected rainfall May 21, 2016

Expected rainfall May 22, 2016

MAY 19, 2016, 0700 UTC, 1230 IST

ROANU TO BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED 

The  storm is hovering about 100 kilometres east of Machilipatnam now.

By Friday morning it will be near Visakhapatnam spewing gale force winds of 100-110 km/h.

By Friday evening it will intensify more and will move along Odisha coast.

There is grave danger of flooding in coastal Andhra, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Bangladesh, Myanmar and some Indian North Eastern states in the coming days because of this tropical cyclone. Astonishing that the Indian news media seems more interested in elections.

Not to mention the strong winds.

The following districts will face flooding, torrential rainfall in the next 48 hours. Guntur, Krishna, East Godavari, West Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, Srikakulam.

Coastal districts of Odisha and West Bengal face a similar threat on May 20-21, 2016.

ROANU will cruise along the Andhra coast for the next 36 hours. On Saturday Odisha coastal districts face the rain-wind menace.

Special warning to folks in the Chittagong area of Bangladesh. ROANU is going to suddenly intensify on May 21 and slam into the country on early Sunday morning with winds of 120 km/h. This applies to northern Myanmar also.

The states of Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland face drenching rains on May 21-22.

MAY 18, 2016, 1030 UTC, 1600 IST

The cyclone has sustained winds of 70 km/h. But the Andhra coast being a little away from the strong wind areas of the storm's circumference have lesser winds. Machilipatnam district has at present 40 km/h gale.

This wind map is from 0830 UTC (1400 IST).

MAY 18, 2016, 0900 UTC, 1430 IST 

CYCLONE ROANU HAS FORMED SAYS JTWC

The deep depression in the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a tropical cyclone. NOAA calls it 1B. The formal naming with ROANU by the IMD is awaited.

Below is expected track and intensity of cyclone ROANU by JTWC. This was issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center just half an hour ago.

Chittagong in Bangladesh will suffer a direct hit by the tropical cyclone on Saturday night. May 21, 2016.

Very gusty conditions with torrential rainfall is expected in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha in the next 72 hours.

The districts of Nellore, Prakasham, Krishna, East Godavari, West Godavari will face the strongest winds as the track of the storm passes closest to these areas.

MAY 18, 2016, 0630 UTC, 1200 IST

CYCLONE FORMATION WARNING......TARGET BANGLADESH SUNDAY

Global forecast models warn that the Bay of Bengal depression 91B is intensifying rapidly and could turn into a tropical cyclone within next 24 hours. By Thursday morning IST.

The JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) says the probability of a tropical cyclone formation in the North Indian Ocean in the next 24 hours is high.

Forecast models warn the cyclone ROANU could intensify further on May 20-21 and hit Bangladesh in the Chittagong area on Sunday.

The Indian Meteorological Department expects a Chittagong hit on Sunday. Here is the IMD multi-model forecast for cyclone ROANU....The analysis is dated May 17.

MAY 18, 2016: 0430 GMT, 1000 IST

91B A DEPRESSION NOW, WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER SOON

The system lay east of Chennai in the Bay of Bengal about 4 hours back. It is moving along the coast. 

Rainfall activity in coastal Andhra will remain vigorous in the next 48-60 hours. Some districts may receive torrential downpours. Rains will abate only after Friday.

All the districts of the state are in for heavy precipitation accompanied by winds of 50-60 km/h.

By Thursday the system will have intensified into a deep depression. And after that perhaps a weak cyclone ROANU.

The storm will swing away from the Andhra-Odisha border coast on Friday into the sea. It will make landfall on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border coast on Sunday.

MAY 17, 2016: 0400 GMT 

CYCLONE ROANU TO HIT MYANMAR MAY 21...OR CHITTAGONG?

It is coming. Not a very big cyclone. Winds of 70-80 km/h. And lots of rain. ROANU will hit Myanmar on Saturday.

The Bay of Bengal low pressure system lay east off the northern tip of Sri Lanka at 0000 GMT today. In the next 48 hours it will move along the Indian coast. It is moving north quickly. On May 19, near the Andhra coast it will start intensifying. Into a deep depression than perhaps a tropical cyclone.

The system is moving north along the coast. The present rains in coastal districts of Tamil Nadu will shift to the Andhra coastal areas in the next 48 hours.

Below is the rain estimator satellite image at 0330 GMT today.

CYCLONE WARNING.... FORECAST MODELS SAY BOB LOW PRESSURE IS INTENSIFYING...WILL BECOME A DEPRESSION/DEEP DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW THAT IS MAY 18.....IT MAY INTENSIFY INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE ROANU BY FRIDAY OFF ANDHRA COAST.....TARGET.....CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH.....MAY 22 EARLY MORNING 

MAY 16, 2016: 1230 GMT, 1730 IST

The Indian Met, IMD, thinks there is a >30% chance of a cyclone developing from 91B by tomorrow.

The JTWC, Joint Typhoon Warning Center says...."THE POTENTIAL FOR

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM."

MAY 16, 2016: 0930 GMT, 1500 IST

RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE OF 91B

The image shows two things

1. It is intensifying.

2. It's effect are seen over a large area. It has thrown clouds thousands of kilometres away even in the Arabian Sea. Appears to be a cyclone in the making.

MAY 16, 2016: 0600 GMT, 1130 IST

POSITION OF THE STORM

The depression was in sea between the Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coast at 0600 GMT.

WHERE IS IT RAINING NOW IN TAMIL NADU?

This MPE rain estimator satellite image of 0730 GMT, 1300 IST shows where the heaviest precipitation is.

Bay of Bengal Depression May Intensify Into A Cyclone By May 20

MAY 16, 2016

Though it is not certain but there is good chance that the present Bay of Bengal depression 91B may turn into a tropical cyclone on Friday, May 20, 2016.

Presently the low pressure area has left Sri Lanka and in the next 24 hours will move along the Tamil Nadu coast. Heavy rainfall has already stated in southern districts of the state. By tomorrow they will spread to Chennai and adjoining areas.

By May 18, the depression will slide by the Andhra coast. Since it is not expected to move inland, Telangana will receive comparatively less precipitation than the Andhra coast.

By Friday the system may intensify into a tropical cyclone (ROANU). It is not expected to be a very powerful storm. A moderate cyclone with winds of around 80-90 km/h.

Southern coastal Odisha and northern Andhra will face strong winds and heavy rainfall.

The cyclone will rapidly move to Myanmar on May 21-22, 2016.

This scenario is not certain. As some numerical forecast models say the depression may weaken and move to Myanmar.

Only the NAVGEM model predicts a massive cyclone hit on Bangladesh. But at present it seems unlikely.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates 

DEEP DEPRESSION/TROPICAL STORM ROANU TO HIT TAMIL NADU MAY 17, 2016

MAY 13, 2016

STORM WARNING FOR SRI LANKA, TAMIL NADU 

THE low pressure area that has formed southeast of Sri Lanka will intensify into deep depression or possibly tropical cyclone ROANU and hit the coast of Tamil Nadu on May 17, 2016.

This Bay of Bengal storm system is expected by numerical weather prediction models to have a central minimum pressure of 985 hPa by the time it reaches the Tamil coast south of Chennai. That means a moderate storm with sustained winds of 70-80 km/h.

Though US NAVY NAVGEM model foresees a stronger cyclone with a 982 hPa pressure.

Strong winds torrential rain will lash the state from Tuesday. Chennai will be badly affected.

The system is then expected to hug the Indian coast and move into coastal Andhra Pradesh. If this happens, very heavy rains are expected in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, coastal West Bengal and Bangladesh in the coming week.

Heavy showers may start in Tamil Nadu from Monday  itself.

Please note that extreme weather systems like this upcoming depression are very unpredictable by nature. What we have forecast is gleaned from data from global NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models. And all the models are not in unanimity about the track of this system.

Some models are foreseeing a vicious cyclone that will move past the Tamil Nadu then Andhra coast onto Bangladesh. Hence please keep in touch with our latest updates. The situation is mercurial at present.

Though the European forecast model ECMWF is more sanguine about the expected storm. It believes it will be a depression, not a tropical cyclone. It predicts a different track for the system than the GFS model. See maps below.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates

As regards the future route of the system, there is an alternative possibility. The GFS believes it will weaken into a low pressure area after it swings away from Tamil Nadu into the sea and make landfall into Myanmar later in the week.

Track forecast for Bay of Bengal depression May 2016 by ECMWF and GFS.

MASSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE ROANU IMMINENT IN ARABIAN SEA SHORTLY

MAY 9, 2016

All NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models are agreeing that a powerful tropical cyclone ROANU will form this month in the Arabian Sea in the next few days near the southern Kerala coast.

It will start off as a low pressure that will form by May 12, 2016.

By May 16 the system will start intensifying into a depression, then a tropical storm as it moves north along the Kerala-Karnataka coast.

The American and European forecast models have slight difference of opinion as to the nature of the expected storm. Though both agree that it will move roughly north initially, the GFS says it will be a slow  intensifying and moving system, the ECMWF expects it to be faster in both ways.

As to where it will make landfall is hard to say at the moment. But likely targets are Oman, Pakistan (Sindh, Balochistan) or the Indian state of Gujarat.

We shall be closely monitoring satellite imagery and data from global forecast models and will give you near-live, continuous updates and predictions.

Keep in touch for the latest.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates

May 2016: Extreme Weather Forecast And Possibilities, Updates

WET MONTH FOR OMAN AHEAD?

May 5, 2016

Oman and perhaps the UAE are in for a stormy wet month if forecast models are to be believed. By the last week of May, a low pressure/depression is likely to move into central Oman bringing heavy rains. 

Then by June 10, 2016 a powerful tropical cyclone may hit northern Oman. This storm is likely to form around June 5, 2016 near the Kerala-Karnataka coast of India.

These predictions are based on the CFS (Climate Forecast System) model created by the US agency CPC (Climate Prediction Center) and thus are nothing to sneeze at.

Though one cannot say 100% that a cyclone will hit Oman, since the CFS forecast has been persistently foretelling a storm since the last 10 days, there is a good possibility of a tropical cyclone in early June developing in the Arabian Sea. Where it goes remains to be seen.

US AGENCY CPC SAYS NO CYCLONE TILL MAY 17

May 4, 2016

The CPC, the US agency says in it's latest forecast that though there will be increased rainfall in southern Arabian Sea, a cyclone is unlikely till May 17.

Please note that the CFS model has been developed by the CPC.

It says....

"During Week-2, the CFS and ECMWF models agree that above-median rainfall will continue across the Horn of Africa and western Indian Ocean. Above-median rainfall forecast across far southern India, Sri Lanka, and parts of the central Indian Ocean is related to the potential for a developing MJO by mid-May. 

Tropical cyclone development is unlikely across the global tropics during the next two weeks. This inactive period for tropical cyclone genesis is typical for early May."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/

STORMS BREWING IN ARABIAN SEA IN END MAY
May 4, 2016

Latest CFS weekly forecasts indicate intense thunderstorm activity in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Oman after May 15, 2016. It is to be seen if it throws out a cyclone.

MONSOON WILL PUSH IN AROUND MAY 15
May 4, 2016

Below is the GFS forecast for May 15, 2016. It shows the high altitude 150 hPa winds. The easterly jet stream has been pushed up and the monsoon winds are arriving in the Andamans and Nicobar Islands.

TROPICAL CYCLONE UNLIKELY TILL MAY 22

May 4, 2016

The chances of a tropical cyclone developing in either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal till May 22 seems remote. The CFS which had been hinting at a Arabian Sea storm by May end says today in its data that a cyclone is now likely in the Bay of Bengal in mid June. 

This has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Cyclones are inherently unpredictable. And May-June being storm seasons anything can happen anytime.

FORECAST TILL MAY 22

MAY 3, 2016

This is from IITM (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune)

The next 20 days forecast indicates that

➢Subsequent to the likely rain spell over major parts of India during the first pentad,  heat wave conditions are likely to re-develop over parts of east & central India (viz., Gangetic west Bengal, Odisha, Vidarbha and Telangana) during 7th – 11th May.  This is likely to intensify and spread over to cover major parts of central and adjoining peninsular India and northwest India, during the period, 12th – 21st May.

➢Cyclogenesis is un-likely over the north Indian ocean during 2nd – 21st May.

➢However, cross equatorial flow in the lower troposphere is likely to reach south bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea around 15th May.

➢Likely eastward propagation of  the convective phase of MJO across the Indian ocean may cause a pre-monsoon rainfall peak, with above normal rainfall activity over extreme south peninsula during 12th – 21st May.

➢Western Disturbances are likely to cause above normal precipitation over western Himalayan region during 2nd – 6th May and 12th – 16th May.

CYCLONE ROANU IMMINENT AT MONTHS END?

May 2

Is a tropical cyclone brewing in the Arabian Sea?

Yes, if the Climate Forecast System, run by an US agency is to believed. 

The CFS though a climate forecast model gives daily updates. And it's data has been suggesting a cyclone forming near the Kerala coast around May 23, 2016 for the last few days.

The tropical cyclone ROANU will be a massive one and it will traverse northward in the Arabian Sea for a week.

At one time it seems it will hit Oman but it will swerve and hit Pakistan on June 1, 2016.

At present it is a mere possibility.

Support from weather models like the GFS and ECMWF is awaited.

Though the GFS in today's forecast data says a low pressure is likely to develop near the Indian Kerala coast on May 18.