MAY 9, 2016
All NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models are agreeing that a powerful tropical cyclone ROANU will form this month in the Arabian Sea in the next few days near the southern Kerala coast.
All NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models are agreeing that a powerful tropical cyclone ROANU will form this month in the Arabian Sea in the next few days near the southern Kerala coast.
It will start off as a low pressure that will form by May 12, 2016.
By May 16 the system will start intensifying into a depression, then a tropical storm as it moves north along the Kerala-Karnataka coast.
The American and European forecast models have slight difference of opinion as to the nature of the expected storm. Though both agree that it will move roughly north initially, the GFS says it will be a slow intensifying and moving system, the ECMWF expects it to be faster in both ways.
As to where it will make landfall is hard to say at the moment. But likely targets are Oman, Pakistan (Sindh, Balochistan) or the Indian state of Gujarat.
We shall be closely monitoring satellite imagery and data from global forecast models and will give you near-live, continuous updates and predictions.
2 comments:
Hopefully this will bring good rain in Gujarat early before monsoon date 20 the June.
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