MAY 8, 2016
Major forecast models seem to be agreeing that the expected Arabian Sea tropical cyclone/storm may form on May 18, 2016, near the Indian coast of the state of Kerala, south of Lakshadweep.
Major forecast models seem to be agreeing that the expected Arabian Sea tropical cyclone/storm may form on May 18, 2016, near the Indian coast of the state of Kerala, south of Lakshadweep.
One thing is certain. A storm is in the offing in the next ten days in that part of the North Indian Ocean. The SST, Sea Surface Temperature is hovering above 31 degrees centigrade. Well above the threshold for a tropical cyclone to form. Moreover, the average mean sea level pressure in the entire Arabian Sea is expected to be lower than average. (Bay of Bengal will have average or above MSL pressure, hence less likelihood of a storm there).
The question is where. There has been wildly erratic forecasts by the GFS lately. Yemen, Oman, Pakistan. The target of the storm has been changing with successive forecasts.
But today there seems to be developing an unanimity amongst various NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models.
That a low pressure area will develop off the Kerala coast around May 17-18, 2016.
There is a good chance that this humble low will grow up into something awful. A tropical cyclone.
Where will it go?
Hard to say now. Gujarat in India. Sindh, Balochistan in Pakistan. Or Oman. Any one of them will be the target.
See latest updates
See latest updates
1 comment:
At present here the temperature is hovering in saurastra indicates something to be happened in weather in next few days
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