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Bay of Bengal Storm Updates
ROANU, KYANT IN BAY OF BENGAL, ARABIAN SEA ONE AFTER ANOTHER?
Bay of Bengal Storm Updates
ROANU, KYANT IN BAY OF BENGAL, ARABIAN SEA ONE AFTER ANOTHER?
MAY 11, 2016
Latest data from GFS forecast model says cyclone ROANU will be born in the Bay of Bengal. A massive storm it will make landfall into Odisha-West Bengal on May 24, 2016.
Meanwhile a deep depression/tropical storm will form around May 20, 2016 in the Arabian Sea off the gulf of Aden. It is expected to head northeasterly.
Interestingly even the NAEFS Model too predicts a storm each in the Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea.
ROANU, KYANT one after another in the North Indian Ocean this May?
TROPICAL STORMS LIKELY SAYS CPC
MAY 11, 2016
The American agency NOAA's CPC, Climate Prediction Center, supports what we have saying over last few days. That there is a moderate possibility of storms developing in North Indian Ocean in the coming.(Red and white stripes in the forecast map).
It further says it is hard to say now where the tropical cyclone will develop, Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal.
XTREME WEATHER WARNING
HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN SRI LANKA, POSSIBLY TAMIL NADU MAY 16 ONWARDS
HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN SRI LANKA, POSSIBLY TAMIL NADU MAY 16 ONWARDS
MAY 10, 2016
This is because of the chances of a pow pressure/depression passing through Sri Lanka and the Indian states of Tamil Nadu Karnataka and Kerala from May 16, 2016 onwards. Flooding is possible.
Now this system may cross over into the Arabian Sea around May 20 and intensify into a tropical storm.
GFS CONFUSED, NOW BANGLADESH MAY 22, 2016!
MAY 10, 2016
The North Indian Ocean is in a state of turbulence. This is reflected in the erratic forecasts that the GFS model has been giving lately. After Yemen, Karnataka it now says ROANU will be a Bay of Bengal storm. And it will hit Bangladesh on May 22, 2016.
It believes the low pressure area that will form soon near the Maldives will migrate to the Bay of Bengal.
Let us wait for the GFS to emerge from it's perplexed condition.
Meanwhile our bet is still on an Arabian Sea cyclone/depression.
The game is afoot!
A HIT ON KARNATAKA ON MAY 19, 2016?
MAY 10, 2016
That is what the GFS model is saying presently. A very powerful ROANU will hit northern Karnataka on May 19-20, 2016.
We feel to assume this to be true would be premature. Firstly, historically no Arabian Sea tropical cyclone has hit Karnataka or Goa. Moreover, this GFS prediction is not supported by other models.
There seems a general consensus that a low pressure will form in southeast Arabian Sea and the system will intensify as it moves north in the next 10 days.
The GFS expects the system to develop in the next 2-3 days near Maldives move north, intensify into a monster of a storm and hit Karnataka on May 19.
Though this is hardly reliable as in it's latest output it now predicts a Bay of Bengal storm forming near north Andaman island on May 19, 2016.
The seas around India are in a state of flux and have the NWP models confused.
ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE ROANU IMMINENT
MAY 9, 2016
All major NWP models are now predicting a storm in the Arabian Sea. The recalcitrant ECMWF model too has fallen in line with the GFS forecast.
The storm may be born as early as Thursday, May 12 as a low pressure area just south of Kanyakumari. In the next 3-4 days after that it will intensify into a depression.
Stay in touch for latest developments.
OMAN, PAKISTAN OR GUJARAT?
MAY 9, 2016
Latest GFS forecast image of expected Arabian Sea tropical cyclone on May 25, 2016.
DEPRESSION/CYCLONE MAY FORM SOUTH OF SOCOTRA IN DAYS
MAY 9, 2016
There is a good chance of a deep depression or a tropical cyclone may form off the Somali coast in the next few days. If this happens stormy rain is likely in Yemen, parts of Saudi Arabia and southern Oman in the coming days.
SLOW MOVING TROPICAL STORM IN ARABIAN SEA
MAY 9, 2016
The GFS still persists with it's prediction of 2 depressions/tropical storms forming in southern Arabian Sea by Friday.
One is expected near Socotra island off the Somali coast. Where will it go? Either Yemen or southern Oman.
The other will form near the Maldives. A depression that will slowly track north into the Arabian Sea. GFS data shows an intensifying deep depression in central Arabian Sea on May 24. Where will it hit?
Hard to say now. Northern Oman, Pakistan. Or Gujarat in India.
This GFS forecast tallies with the CFS forecast of a massive cyclone hitting northern Oman in early June.
The Canadian CMC model believes the storm will form in a few days off Kerala coast. It envisages a much bigger cyclone than the GFS.is likely in Yemen,
Meanwhile disagreement among major forecast models persists. The European ECMWF says nothing in the Arabian Sea but a low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal will form May 18, 2016 off the Tamil Nadu coast.
RAINS IN UAE, OMAN?
MAY 8, 2016
Too soon to say definitely but if the depression/tropical storm off Somalia occurs as the GFS predicts there is a lot of precipitation likely in Oman, UAE, Bahrain Qatar and parts of Saudi Arabia in the coming 15 days. The forecast map below shows the total rain (in millimetres) till May 24, 2016.
MAY 8, 2016
Extreme weather in Sydney. Showers pushing in from north west into Sydney and Canberra.
MAY 8, 2016
Rain radar map shows it is raining heavily in Sri Lanka presently.
MAY 8, 2016
There are many clusters of thunderstorms in southern Arabian Sea. Of interest to us are the two near Somali coast and near Maldives. The GFS expects a low pressure area to develop off Somalia in the next 3-4 days. The next one to develop will be near Maldives after that. Both may intensify into a tropical depression/storm.
MAY 8, 2016
All the major forecast models are giving out jerky, erratic prediction for the expected Arabian Sea tropical cyclone this May. The GFS now shows this deep depression/tropical storm hovering menacingly off Mumbai on May 24, 2016.
MAY 8, 2016
The reliable European forecast model ECMWF expects the Arabian Sea storm to be born near the Kerala coast on May 16 as a depression. The GFS disagrees. Near Somali coast it says.
MAY 8, 2016
In fact the GFS predicts two storms in the Arabian Sea. One a cyclone and the second a depression. The depression may bring rains to Gujarat on May 22, 2016. Fascinating possibilities.
Latest GFS forecast model data issued at 1800 UTC, May 7 foresees a massive tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea. It expects it to hit southern Oman on May 22.
1 comment:
Any rain possiblities for karachi
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