MAY 7, 2016
The May forecast by the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) model for Indian monsoon 2016 is out. This model is run by NOAA's CPC, Climate Prediction Center, a highly respected and reliable climate forecast agency of the United States.
SEPTEMBER 2016: Very heavy in Saurashtra, Uttarakhand and coastal Maharashtra.
The May forecast by the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) model for Indian monsoon 2016 is out. This model is run by NOAA's CPC, Climate Prediction Center, a highly respected and reliable climate forecast agency of the United States.
We had given it's April prediction a month ago. Examining both the older and latest data, one finds the basic forecast outlook for India, South Asia and the Middle East basically the same.
Mostly bright. Very good above average rainfall is expected all over India, except for some eastern states. The month of June is good for all the parts of the country. But the bad times are expected to start from July-September for the states of Odisha, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and northern Andhra. Below average precipitation there.
Western states are in for bountiful rains. Especially Gujarat and Maharashtra. June-September 2016.
Good rains are expected in Pakistan June-September this year. Myanmar is in for a dry spell relative to its average precipitation during the SW Monsoon months.
Surprisingly, Oman, the United Arabian Emirates and parts of Saudi Arabia are in for above average rainfall July-September.
Please note that the green colour in the forecast maps denote above average rainfall. Orange equals deficient precipitation.
JUNE 2016: Good rains all over India except some NE states.
JULY 2016: Flooding rains in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Kerala. Deficient in Chattisgarh, Odisha.
AUGUST 2016: Poor rains in Chattisgarh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and northern Andhra. Heavy in Gujarat, parts of Rajasthan, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
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