MAY 7, 2016
Analysing the data from various models, one thing is certain. Some intense weather is possible in southern Arabian Sea around May 15, 2016.
There are two areas of interest. One between Sri Lanka and Maldives. Second just south of Socotra off the Somali coast.
NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models are divided between these two areas of interest. One can conclude that a tropical cyclone is likely to be born in one of these areas.
As to where it will go, one can say anything with any credibility only after the cyclone is born. Different models are giving erratic predictions as to its destination. Pakistan, Oman, Yemen or Gujarat?
We have to wait for the situation to crystallise.
Meanwhile latest data from the climate model CFS suggests a cyclone forming on June 2, 2016 near the Kerala coast and hitting Pakistan on June 7.
Seeing the latest satellite image one can see increasing thunderstorm activity in southern parts of the Arabian Sea as well as Bay of Bengal. This is a pre-cursor to the arrival of the South West Monsoon into South Asia.
In conclusion, we see the latest data from the European ECMWF model. It says a low pressure area is to develop between the Sri Lankan coast and Maldives on May 15-16. From experience we have found this model to be the most sober, accurate and reliable of all forecast models.
Meanwhile today's data on the current Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the North Indian Ocean shows both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are well heated to spawn a tropical cyclone.
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