MAY 6, 2016
FLASH...LATEST GFS FORECAST PREDICTS THE EXPECTED CYCLONE MAY POSE A THREAT TO OMAN, NOT YEMEN....
FLASH...LATEST GFS FORECAST PREDICTS THE EXPECTED CYCLONE MAY POSE A THREAT TO OMAN, NOT YEMEN....
I recollect that in 2001 a cyclone had been born off the Somali coast near Socotra which after a week or so affected Gujarat. Hope history does not repeat itself.
Forecast models are flush with possibilities of extreme weather in South and West Asia in the coming days.
As the south west monsoon prepares to arrive in the region the Arabian Sea is expected to go into hyper mode. We have already spoken of some tropical cyclone possibilities in the North Indian Ocean earlier.
Now the GFS, the numerical weather prediction model run by the US agency NOAA is expecting a tropical cyclone (ROANU?) to develop near the Somali coast around May 17, intensity rapidly and hit Yemen on May 20, 2016.
This NWP model does foresee increasing thunderstorms activity off the Somali coast in the coming days. The expected cyclone will be the climax of this activity. The low pressure area may develop as early as May 13.
Cyclones hitting Yemen is not uncommon. Last year in November, Chapala and Megh, two powerful storm hit the area.
Interestingly the US Navy model NAVGEM says a low pressure area will develop near the Kerala coast on May 9. It sees it intensifying into a powerful cyclone and head west or northwest.
The ECMWF too envisages a low forming near Kerala coast. But on May 15.
We are keeping a close watch on the weather conditions in the region. Stay in touch for updates.
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