There is no possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal in the coming next few days. Please read our latest forecasts and do not go by earlier articles.
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It is possible that a powerful cyclone (Ashobaa) may soon form in the Arabian Sea in North Indian Ocean, which will intensify and make landfall into Gujarat state of Western India on May 21, 2015.
At presently only the reliable American GFS forecast system predicts this storm but we have seen from experience that generally GFS forecasts are accurate. We shall closely monitor the situation and keep you updated with latest forecasts as soon as we come across them.
According to the GFS, the cyclone will start off as a low pressure area on May 17, near the Karnataka-Kerala coast and then move north and intensify into a tropical cyclone (Ashobaa). The storm is likely to hit Gujarat on May 21, 2015.
We will monitor future GFS forecasts and see if the cyclone formation is sustained. We shall also observe the European Forecast Model and see whether it supports the GFS prediction.
The situation being fluid, we have to wait and see if the cyclone forms and what its track turns out to be. Gujarat, Pakistan or Oman?
Keep in touch for latest updates.
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| FORECAST MA SHOWING ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE ASHOBAA HITTING GUJARAT ON MAY 21, 2015 |
8 comments:
high wind shear & blocking atmosphere over arabian peninsula within coming days, may prevent this stom to go coast of oman. If it happen.
ECMWF & UKMET MODELS, still not predicting this coming storm.
but
GFS, JMA, CMC and other models says it will go to gojrat.
lets see
I go with Gfs and rest models, cause all the actual and forecasted parameters are favourable for the storm (if happen) to hit Gujrat or Iindian-pakistani coastal borders.
In Pakistan, Karachi Humidity level increase 70-78%, might be due to blocking atmosphere over arabian peninsula with coming days? or it normal.
Acording to GFS storm wil born in lw presure area near karnatak on 17 may . today iz 13th . 3 day r remaing but still no signs of devlopment on indicated area
What is present situation and level of probability in favor of formation of cyclone?
Is this really true? We are flying from Dubai to Mumbai on May 21st!!
There is no possibility of a cyclone developing in Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal in the near future.
What is the current situation
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