TROPICAL STORM UPDATE: JUNE 5, 2014, 0330 HRS UTC
All forecast models are in agreement that a low pressure will form TODAY (June 5, 2014) and that it is going to intensify into a big cyclone in a few days. Questions is where is it going to hit? Oman? Pakistan? Or India, at Gujarat?
Latest GFS forecast say that it will hit Oman on June 13, 2014. But not as a full-blooded storm but as a depression, or a low pressure. The GFS forecast says (Now at least) that the low pressure area is unlikely to remain a full blown cyclone when it reaches Oman. After moving north as it nears Gujarat, the system will lose steam and drift towards Oman and reach it on June 13, 2014. Even then it will throw down a lot of precipitation.
Another point. The Arabian Sea is so unstable at present that the GFS forecast changes with every output. Hence we cannot rule out the possibility of the low pressure system growing into a massive storm and hitting anywhere. Both the CMC and NAVGEM say it is going to hit Oman full steam. Both these models though less reliable than the GFS and the European model, are not to be belittled.
Another point. The Arabian Sea is so unstable at present that the GFS forecast changes with every output. Hence we cannot rule out the possibility of the low pressure system growing into a massive storm and hitting anywhere. Both the CMC and NAVGEM say it is going to hit Oman full steam. Both these models though less reliable than the GFS and the European model, are not to be belittled.
One thing is for sure. Oman is in for rains. Around June 13, 2014.
Heavy rainfall is likely in northern Oman (Muscat included) on June 13, 2014
2 comments:
have you ever looked a thing COLA?, it never showed moving the system towards oman... the core will remain stationary over arabian sea off coast india and will gradually move towards west north west... the finally resting place is still unknown more on that this system will hardly reach as a tropical storm status MJO over arabian sea is getting weak from 8th June onwards.
We consult all websites constantly, including COLA. Please read the article carefully. We have clearly mentioned that the GFS forecast says (Now at least) that the low pressure area is unlikely to remain a full blown cyclone when it reaches Oman. After moving north as it nears Gujarat, the system will lose steam and drift towards Oman and reach it on June 13, 2014. Even then it will throw down a lot of precipitation.
Another point. The Arabian Sea is so unstable at present that the GFS forecast changes with every output. Hence we cannot rule out the possibility of the low pressure system growing into a massive storm and hitting anywhere. Both the CMC and NAVGEM say it is going to hit Oman full steam. Both these models though less reliable than the GFS and the European model, are not to be belittled.
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