Nanauk Was A Powerful Storm (Final Path Of Nanauk)

NASA  in its postmortem  of Cyclone Nanauk says it was a powerful cyclone throwing up storms 16 kms high in the atmosphere.

Tropical storm Nanauk formed west of India on June 10, 2014 and since then moved around towards the north west quadrant of the Arabian Sea. NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) satellite found that Nanauk contained powerful storms dropping rain at a rate of over 247.3 mm/ 9.7 inches per hour when viewed on June 11, 2014 at 1549 UTC (11:49 a.m. EDT).

At NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland an analysis of rainfall from TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) were overlaid on a 1530 UTC (11:30 a.m. EDT) enhanced infrared image from the European Space Agency's METEOSAT-7 satellite. TRMM PR data were used to create a 3-D view that showed that Nanauk contained powerful towering thunderstorms that were reaching heights of up to 16.8 km (10.4 miles). 


Friday the thirteenth proved unlucky for Nanauk as environmental conditions worsened and tore the storm apart. By 09:00 UTC (5 a.m. EDT), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued their final warning on the tropical cyclone. At that time, maximum sustained winds were near 35 knots (40 mph/65 kph) and weakening quickly. The storm's last official position was at 21.3 north latitude and 64.3 east longitude, about 285 nautical miles (328 miles/528 km) southwest of Karachi, Pakistan. At that time the dissipating storm was moving to the north at 9 knots (10 mph/~17 kph).

Source NASA

The path/track of cyclone Nanauk

Remains Of The Day: Image of the depression that remains of cyclone Nanauk

The remains of the once powerful cyclone Nanauk drifting in the Arabian Sea. Image taken 0000 hrs GMT, June 14, 2014, Saturday.

Cyclone Nanauk Is Breaking Up Fast! Will Disintegrate In 24 Hours!

Infra-red satellite image of Nanauk taken at 1000 hrs GMT today (June 13, 2014) shows the dying storm well

The JTWC says in its latest Cyclone Nanauk bulletin that the storm is dissipating rapidly. In 24 hours it will be below cyclone strength.

Here is what it says.....

130900Z (JUNE 13, 2014 0900 AM GMT) POSITION NEAR 21.4N 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NOW - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRN CEN. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

Infra-Red Satellite Image of Nanauk at 1200 hrs GMT, June 13, 2014, Friday

Nanauk Will Not Reach Oman: Will Implode On June 15, 2014 Says JTWC

Even in the latest Nanauk cyclone bulletin (1500 hrs GMT , June 12, 2014)  the JTWC says it will not reach Oman but dissipate in the Arabian Sea itself on Sunday.

We have to see if this prognosis is supported by other forecast models. Off the hand, we feel this forecast will happen to be true.

Here is a gist of what the bulletin says in simple English.....

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 

............... WILL RESULT IN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND.
TC 02A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE WEAKENED TC IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DEFLECT POLEWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION..................

Satellite image of Nanauk taken at 1200 hrs GMT today (Friday, June 13, 2014)

GFS Says Nanauk Will Break Up Soon: Oman Cheated Of Expected Rains.

UPDATE JUNE 13, 2014 1000 HRS GMT

The latest GFS supports the JTWC forecast. Nanauk will dissipate mid sea near Oman coast in 24 hrs. So Oman will receive little or no rainfall. The remnants of the cyclone will start drifting in the sea away from Oman. 

So, no rains in Oman..

Water vapor satellite image of Nanauk taken at 1030 GMT, today, June 13, 2014 shows the storm is breaking apart.

Satellite image of Nanauk taken at 0900 hrs GMT Friday, June 13, 2014

JTWC LATEST FORECAST: 0900 HRS GMT, JUNE 12: Cyclone To Break Up Mid Sea On June 15: Won't Reach Oman

The JTWC in its latest forecast issued at 0900 hrs, June 12, 2014 (Today) has astounding news! Nanauk is not going to reach Oman. It will weaken in to a low pressure area on June 15, Sunday.

If this happens it is good news for India and Pakistan. A low pressure will bring a lot of rainfall in these areas (Provided of course if the remnants of the storm drift back. We shall have to analyse that later.)

PRESENT POSITION

120900Z (JUNE 12, 0900 HRS UTC) POSITION NEAR 18.3N 64.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

Latest image of tropical storm Nanauk: Image taken at 0900 hrs, GMT, June 12, 2014

Latest JTWC Update Says Nanauk To Hit Oman June 16, 2014

The JTWC in its latest Nanauk Cyclone update (June 12, 3 AM GMT) says the storm will hit Oman a day late. On June 16 morning. It will the island of Masirah.

The BBC in a weather bulletin says that Nanauk is heading to Oman for now but we will keep a close eye on what happens next.

Our feeling exactly. Nanauk is a a very devious unpredictable storm. The ECMWF model says it will head towards Pakistan and break up before contact.

Let us wait and watch. Anything might happen.

Latest Track/Path Prediction Map: JTWC June 11, 2014 2100 hrs GMT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE

112100Z (JUNE 11 9 PM GMT) POSITION NEAR 17.6N 65.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM 

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 

02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

The latest bulletin issued by the JTWC (2100 hrs GMT, June 11, 2014) says nothing much has changed. The cyclone is expected to be as strong as forecasted earlier. It will hit the Oman coast south of Khaluf on June 15, 2014, Sunday early morning. Winds then will be between 75 kph and 120 kph. Heavy rains and very high waves will lash the coast. Muscat is away from Ground Zero so it will not bear the brunt of the storm. But expect rains, and heavy winds from Saturday.

Latest satellite image of cyclone Nanauk (Image taken at 0000 hrs GMT, June 12, 2014

Latest Satellite Image Of Cyclone Nanauk (June 11, 2014, 9 AM GMT)

This is the latest IR satellite image of cyclone Nanauk taken at 9 AM GMT Today, June 11, Wednesday, 2014. Looks like a monster.

How the cyclone Will Move: Wednesday to Saturday (Hits Oman)

Here is how we forecast how tropical cyclone 02A (Nanauk: Its going to be severe cyclonic storm) will move from today, Wednesday till Saturday (June 14,2014).

Its going to be a big storm. The purple color in the images indicates speed of more than 50 knots (More than 93 kph)

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Saturday, June 14, 2014

Cyclone Nanauk Likely To Hit North Oman Coat On Sunday, June 15, 2014 Morning

CYCLONE NANAUK UPDATE JUNE 11, 2014, WEDNESDAY, 0300 HRS GMT

As we have said earlier cyclone Nanauk in the Arabian Sea is going to be quite a monster storm. JTWC estimates that on June 12 and June 13 the normal winds in the storm will be a whopping 150 kph. They will gust up to a devastating 185 kph.

From Wednesday to Saturday morning it is going to be a severe cyclonic storm. It will weaken slightly to a cyclonic storm when it will be about to touch Oman on Sunday. But even then it will pack very strong winds, torrential rainfall and tall waves on the coast.

The worst hit will be the island towns of Kalban and Dawwah.

We hope the Oman Met Dept has duly warned the public at large of the upcoming hazard. Other models suggest the storm may come earlier.

Satellite image of TC-02A (Nanauk) taken at 3 AM GMT today, June 11, 2014

Latest IMD Forecast Bulletin For Cyclone Nanauk

Latest GFS Forecast: Arabian Sea Storm TC-02A (Nanauk) To Hit Oman Late Evening June 14,2014

Latest forecast by the GFS model says it is going to be a big cyclone. In the map it is about to hit Oman on June 14, 2014

Even the GFS forecast in its latest update says that Nanauk will be bigger than earlier expected. While  JTWC says it will hit Oman on June 15, 2014, GFS says it is going to hit Oman earlier on June 14 late evening June 14, 2014.

Be advised that even when it hits the coast the cyclone will be strong with winds at more than 75 kmph, gusting at 90 kmph. Or much more.

It is time the Oman authorities start preparing for the worst. There are only three days left. Nanauk is likely to be a severe cyclonic storm.

Latest JTWC Update: Nanauk To Be a Big Storm: Will Hit Oman June 15

The JTWC in its latest bulletin (Issued at 3 PM, GMT) maintains that tropical cyclone 02A (Nanauk) will be a big storm. It is not expected to weaken much when it hits the north Oman coast on June 15, 2014 evening (Sunday).

The forecast warns that when it hits the coast near Khaluf, wind speeds will be around a mammoth 100 kph. Damaging winds.

We will continue giving you the latest news, information and true, unconcealed forecasts for cyclone Nanauk.

Below is the latest track/path of tropical cyclone 02A (Nanauk).

What The Media Says About Upcoming Tropical Cyclone "Nanauk"

Infra-red image of the Arabian Sea taken at 1230 PM GMT, June 10, 2014 (Courtesy: IMD)

The Wunderground blog said today that "In the North Indian Ocean, Cyclonic Storm Nanauk has winds of 65mph, gusting to 80mph, with a pressure of 986mbars. Movement is West-Northwest at 8mph. Located in the Arabian Sea and is expected to briefly become a category 1 storm before weakening again. May fall apart before it even reaches a landmass."


The Times Of India
A senior professor from the department of meteorology and oceanography, AU, felt that the present system in the Arabian Sea indicated the intensification of a severe cyclone near the Oman coast. "The system has winds with a speed up to 62 kmph and within two days it will have winds of over 90 kmph. The IMD is likely to name it Nanauk as suggested by Myanmar. It is likely to move towards Gujarat and touch north Oman," the professor said.

Indian Republic
It now seems that the El Nino in the Pacific may be suddenly turning favourable for the monsoon in India. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has said now that the El Nino might be ending, with the basin now turning towards La Nina, its alter ego.

IMD

Accuweather

Tropical Storm 02A remains over the Arabian Sea between India and Oman. The storm continues to become better organized and is expected to strengthen through Friday as it turns toward the northwest and approaches Oman.

An increase in wind shear and dry air interacting with the cyclone will likely lead to weakening as it approaches Oman and any threat for heavy rains will be limited to the sparsely populated eastern coastline.

INCOMPLETE....WORK IN PROGRESS....

The JTWC Predicts A Big Storm But Other Forecast Models Doubtful

The JTWC center has already declared the Arabian Sea storm as a tropical cyclone 02A. It further says that it is going to be a big storm. 

But in its bulletin it also says...

LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATIONAL TRACK SPEED. BASED ON THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. 

Put it simply it means that few forecast models agree that the storm is going to go westward towards Oman. Also forecast models disagree on the winds this system is going to throw up. So the JTWC itself says "....Based on this, there is low confidence in the forecast".

We have wait for what the JTWC says in its further bulletins to know how things stand. Further bulletins will be issued at 9 AM, 3 PM, 9 PM today and 3 AM tomorrow (all times GMT). We will keep updating you.

What do the major forecasts say?

GFS: It says the storm will intensify for a day or two then weaken. Then it will intensify again and then weaken into a low pressure area when it touches north Oman.

ECMWF: The storm will intensify a little and go NNW towards Gujarat and dissipate in 2-3 days.

CMC: The storm will intensify a little and go near the Gujarat coast then weaken into a low pressure area which will potter around in the sea.

NAVGEM: The storm will intensify into a tropical cyclone and hit north Oman on June 14, Saturday.

So, as things stand there is confusion and disagreement on what is to become of the present Arabian Sea storm. 

This storm has really left the weatherman totally confused. Is it why the met departments of different countries are keeping mum? Silence is golden, eh!

Why this delay in naming tropical cyclone 02A as Nanauk?

Frankly, we are confused.

The rules for naming storms says that for Northern Indian Ocean the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) is responsible. And when a storm system has sustained winds in excess of 62 kph the IMD is supposed to name the tropical cyclone. Now this cyclone raging in the Arabian Sea at present has sustained winds of 35 knots (65 kph) since last night.

The JTWC  calls it a tropical cyclone. Then why is the IMD not giving it a name? The latest bulletin by the IMD talks about the "low pressure will intensify into a depression".

The fact is that TC-02A is already raging in the Arabian Sea and intensifying even further. We are beyond the "depression" and "deep depression". It is already a cyclone.

We are mystified.

An news item published in the Hindu a couple of hours ago says...

The US Centre (JTWC) has currently given the Arabian Sea system a ‘numbered cyclone’ (equivalent of a monsoon depression) status by giving it the tag ‘02A.’ Numbered cyclone status is penultimate step to naming a cyclone (in the instant case, it will be called Nanauk, a name suggested by Myanmar as per the naming protocol).

This does not clarify things. It seems all meaningless bureaucratic jargon.

India Meteorological Department Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale
Category	Sustained winds (3-min average)
Super Cyclonic Storm	>120 kt >222 km/h
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm	64–119 kt 118–221 km/h
Severe Cyclonic Storm	48–63 kt 88–117 km/h
Cyclonic Storm	34–47 kt 62–87 km/h
Deep Depression	28–33 kt 52–61 km/h
Depression	≤27 kt ≤51 km/h

Source: Wikipedia

JTWC Says Tropical Cyclone 02A Heading To Oman: See Path/Track

LATEST BULLETIN ISSUED BY JTWC FOR ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL CYCLONE TC-02A....
AT 100000Z,( June 10, Tuesday, 2014, 0000 hrs GMT) TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 68.8E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.

The final destination of tropical cyclone 02A seems to be Oman! The JTWC has issued a predicted path/track for Cyclone Nanauk....

XWF-JTWC Prediction Map: Expected path/track of tropical cyclone 02A (Nanauk)

SEE THE CYCLONE LIVE
CLICK ON THE MAP ANYWHERE TO KNOW WIND SPEED

NANAUK HAS FORMED! Tropical Depression 02A Turned Into Tropical Cyclone 02A Last Night 10 PM GMT

Sat. image of Arabian Sea tropical cyclone 02A taken 2 hours ago at 3 AM GMT, June 10, 2014

The depression in the Arabian Sea has turned into a tropical cyclone last night (June 9, 2014) at 10 PM GMT. says the JTWC. The JTWC has named it 02A.

The criteria for naming a tropical cyclone is that it should throw up sustained winds in excess of 62 Kph. The JTWC says that the system in the Arabian Sea had sustained winds of 35 knots (65 kph) last night at 10 PM GMT.

So the Arabian Sea tropical cyclone has formed. So we can expect the storm being name NANAUK soon.

IT WILL BE A MASSIVE STORM. JTWC WARNS THAT ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY THE NORMAL WINDS WILL BE AN AWESOME 130 KPH. MAY GUST UP TO A DEVASTATING 158 KPH.

The JTWC has given the track and predicted path and the expected winds speeds.....The speeds are given in knots (KT). 1 knot=1.85 kph

 FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z (June 10, 1200 hrs UTC) --- 15.9N 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 16.5N 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 16.9N 66.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 17.3N 65.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 17.9N 63.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 18.3N 61.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 18.6N 59.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

Satellie image of cyclone 02A issued by JTWC 2330 hrs UTC, June 9, 2014

SEETHE CYCLONE LIVE
CLICK ON THE MAP ANYWHERE TO KNOW THE WIND SPEED THERE

Latest Met Office (UK) Arabian Sea Cyclone Nanauk Warnings And Predicted Track

Satellite image Arabian Sea taken at 0145 hrs GMT

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.06.2014

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.5N  68.3E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 09.06.2014  13.5N  68.3E    STRONG

 00UTC 10.06.2014  15.1N  68.1E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.06.2014  15.9N  67.7E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.06.2014  16.6N  67.6E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.06.2014  17.6N  67.0E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.06.2014  18.3N  66.7E   MODERATE   WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 12.06.2014  19.0N  66.6E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.06.2014  20.2N  66.9E     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.06.2014  20.5N  67.0E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.06.2014  21.0N  67.6E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 14.06.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH