European Model, ECMWF Paints Gloomy India Monsoon 2017 Picture

APRIL 13, 2017, THURSDAY

The rainfall prediction for India this year's monsoon is poor. That is if the prediction by the European weather forecast agency's ECMWF model is to be believed. 

On the whole rainfall will be normal till September end in most parts of India, barring Kutch, parts of Saurashtra, North Gujarat, entire Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Jammu Kashmir, Bengal and the North Eastern states. Rainfall will be deficient in these areas. On the whole it will bring down the monsoons to 90-95% of average. That is if there are no depression/cyclones in October/November which bring prodigious amounts of water and push up the percentage and reduce the gloomy scenario.

The ECMWF says that there will be good rains on the Indian west coast barring Gujarat in July and August. But the rains will dry up in August, September in the whole country. I guess this will be because of the bad man El Niño kicking in then.

There is bad news for Pakistan and Bangladesh too. It will be below normal monsoon in these two countries.

This prediction is based on analysis of climate data available till March 1, 2017 by the premier forecast agency. It would be interesting to see if there are changes in subsequent long range forecasts.

European Forecast Model Hints At Heavy Rains In Andhra On June 8

JUNE 1, 2016

While the American GFS predicts heavy rains in Mumbai, Gujarat around June 10, 2016, the European ECMWF model is betting on Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on June 7-8.

It expects a low pressure area to develop on the Andhra coast on June 7, which will bring heavy precipitation to Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha and West Bengal.

Leading forecast models are thus disagreeing where the monsoons will change gears: West coast or east coast of India.

Keep in touch for updates.

The ECMWF Model Says Nanauk will move north and weaken till it hits Pakistan

There is a great deal of uncertainty about the future of cyclone Nanauk.

The ECMWF model says the storm will start moving north towards Pakistan coast and start weakening. By the time it reaches Pakistan coast near Karachi it will be a low pressure area. So south coastal Pakistan can expect a deluge from Friday, June 13, 2014.

The JTWC Predicts A Big Storm But Other Forecast Models Doubtful

The JTWC center has already declared the Arabian Sea storm as a tropical cyclone 02A. It further says that it is going to be a big storm. 

But in its bulletin it also says...

LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATIONAL TRACK SPEED. BASED ON THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. 

Put it simply it means that few forecast models agree that the storm is going to go westward towards Oman. Also forecast models disagree on the winds this system is going to throw up. So the JTWC itself says "....Based on this, there is low confidence in the forecast".

We have wait for what the JTWC says in its further bulletins to know how things stand. Further bulletins will be issued at 9 AM, 3 PM, 9 PM today and 3 AM tomorrow (all times GMT). We will keep updating you.

What do the major forecasts say?

GFS: It says the storm will intensify for a day or two then weaken. Then it will intensify again and then weaken into a low pressure area when it touches north Oman.

ECMWF: The storm will intensify a little and go NNW towards Gujarat and dissipate in 2-3 days.

CMC: The storm will intensify a little and go near the Gujarat coast then weaken into a low pressure area which will potter around in the sea.

NAVGEM: The storm will intensify into a tropical cyclone and hit north Oman on June 14, Saturday.

So, as things stand there is confusion and disagreement on what is to become of the present Arabian Sea storm. 

This storm has really left the weatherman totally confused. Is it why the met departments of different countries are keeping mum? Silence is golden, eh!

GFS: Cyclone Nanauk To Hit Oman Friday 13; ECMWF: Depression Will Break-up Mid-Sea

ARABIAN SEA STORM UPDATE: MONDAY, JUNE 9, 2014, 1100 AM GMT

The GFS forecast: The tropical storm thundering along on Wednesday, June 11, 2014

That is the story of the present Arabian Sea low pressure area.

On one side the GFS forecast says the low pressure area will develop in a tropical cyclone which on Wednesday will have howling winds of 100 Kph. The storm will then weaken and touch Oman on Friday, June 13, 2014. Weakened but even then it will pack a punch with strong winds and lots of rains.

On the other side is the venerable ECMWF forecast. Both the BBC and IMD follow its forecasts. The ECMWF forecast model says a deep depression will emerge from the present low pressure area and move north. But a few hundred kms from the Gujarat coast it will disintegrate. There will be no impact on Oman.

Hence the confusion. Who will be proved right? The GFS? Or BBC/IMD brigade with their ECMWF basis?

The coming days will tell.

What do we believe? We tend to be partial to the GFS model.

XWF-GFS rain prediction map: Accumulated Rainfall recorded from now till June 16, 2014 owing to Nanauk. The figures are in inches

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The Met Office Arabian Sea Storm Track/Path

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.06.2014

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.7N  66.8E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 09.06.2014  12.7N  66.8E     WEAK

 12UTC 09.06.2014  14.1N  69.1E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.06.2014  15.2N  68.6E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 10.06.2014  16.4N  68.0E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.06.2014  17.3N  67.7E   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.06.2014  18.4N  67.2E     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.06.2014  19.4N  66.9E     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.06.2014  BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH