Monsoon To Intensify From May 29

MAY 22, 2017, MONDAY

After May 20, the buildup of the monsoon has begun. In the Arabian Sea the coast off Somalia has become increasingly stormy with many clusters of thunderstorms. This activity will over the next few days shift eastward towards the Maldives, nearer to the Indian coast.

On the Bay of Bengal side the seas west of the Andaman Nicobar islands is becoming increasingly stormy. A low pressure area may develop here in the next 24 hours.

All this is just a curtain-raiser to the main event. The monsoon assault on the Indian mainland.

The arrival of the rainy season this year will occur on two fronts.

First the Bay of Bengal will spawn a big rainmaker low pressure system in northeastern part of the sea on May 29.

Secondly, the Arabian Sea will go into a massive ferment off the Kerala-Karnataka coast from May 29-30. That will result in the monsoon hitting Kerala. Not only that. That area may spawn a low pressure system. Some forecast models are already predicting that a massive tropical cyclone will emerge from that.

More on that later. Because the storm situation in the Northern Indian Ocean has not yet become any clearer. We have to wait. 

Personally we think the chances of a tropical storm either in the Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea is decreasing as the Madden Julian Oscillation is moving away from the Indian Ocean. We may at most get a low pressure/depression in the Bay of Bengal. That too is not certain.

Uncertainty Continues In Northern Indian Ocean Weather

MAY 21, 2017, SUNDAY

As the southwest monsoon marshals its forces for an Indian entry into Kerala, doubts remain as to what will be the arrival like. Will it be steady, undeterred by a tropical cyclone gulping away some of its moisture and stamina? Or will an Arabian Sea tropical cyclone snatch away some its momentum as it veers off tangentially to Oman?

A Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea storm is beneficial for monsoon rains in India if the system makes landfall into the indian coast. It acts as a locomotive which pulls along the rains into the country. A cyclone going to Myanmar or Oman is not conducive for Indian monsoon. They suck away considerable amount of the monsoon's energy and from an Indian perspective counterproductive.

Meanwhile the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are taking us on a wild goose chase. Not only are they not agreeing with one another but contradicting themselves in successive data output.

The GFS was indicating a Bay of Bengal storm yesterday, is predicting an Arabian Sea cyclone today. According to it the storm will start off as a low near the Kerala coast on May 30/31 then intensify into something awful and hit Oman by June 6.

Meanwhile even the stolid, European ECMWF with their much vaunted supercomputers too seem to be confused. Earlier it was predicting an Arabian Sea cyclone going to southern Oman/Yemen. Now it foretells a depression in the Bay of Bengal on May 31 near the Myanmar coast.

Presently the Indian Ocean is in a state of tremendous flux as the approaching rainy system is creating massive turbulence. The utter anarchy of nature is such that even the biggest man made supercomputers are unable to discern any pattern. Simply put the supercomputers cannot make head or tail out of the prevailing situation in the ocean.

That is why we are seeing ever changing contradictory forecasts by the NWP.

The GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) believes monsoon will hit Mumbai on June 4, 2017

Gujarat, Sindh Still Waiting For Rains

JULY 27, 2016

Half of the monsoon 2016 season has gone yet Gujarat and Sindh are still waiting for the rain gods. Neighbouring Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and most parts of Rajasthan have received good rainfall till now but due to the quirks of nature except for Dang and Amreli districts, Gujarat has been left mainly high and dry.

Looking forward, good rains are expected in central and north Gujarat on July 27-29. There might light showers in the rest of the state.

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"La Nina event, which affects rainfall and temperatures in the tropics, may develop in the third quarter of the year but it is likely to be weak and far less intense than El Nino that ended in May"

--World Meteorological Organisation 

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The next hope is the expected cyclonic circulation that is expected to form over the state around August 3. It will arise in northern Madhya Pradesh on August 2 and then drift over to north Gujarat on August 3. It is likely to hover over the region for days. It may bring good rains to north Gujarat and the parched Kutch region. Even Sindh may receive good precipitation then.

The GFS forecast model is forecasting the formation of a strong low pressure area off the Andhra-Odisha coast on August 6, 2016. It further says the system will cut through Andhra, Telangana, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and reach Gujarat around August 9 bringing heavy rains everywhere.

The European model ECMWF expects the system to form earlier, on August 2, near the Myanmar coast. It says it will then intensify into a depression/deep depression by the time reaches the Odisha coast on August 3-4, and knock on Vidarbha's door by August 6. Powerful system.

Looks like the monsoon is really going to change gears in August. La Niña effect?

But 10 days is a long time in weather forecasting. Let us wait and observe.

UPDATE JULY 28

Hardly 24 hours have passed and the GFS is having doubts about the expected Bay of Bengal low pressure area. Our advice would be take GFS forecasts with a big pinch of salt. The good news is the European model persists with the forecast of an intensification of monsoon activity from August 2. Good rains are expected in dry Kutch-Sindh region around August 4-5.

As the cyclonic circulation gives rain to Kutch on August 4, the much bigger monster system grows in the Bay of Bengal.

GFS believes this system will enter Andhra-Odisha on August 5-6, other models predict an earlier entry

Low Pressure System To Drench Madhya Pradesh For Days

JULY 5, 2016

The Bay of Bengal low pressure system which traversed through West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand is presently beginning its tour of Madhya Pradesh. Flooding rainfall has already occurred over the state owing to its influence.

The heavy precipitation is likely to continue in the state over the coming 5-6 days as the rainmaker system goes around erratically over Madhya Pradesh. Earlier it was expected to travel to northern Maharashtra, Gujarat and then Sindh but it seems to have changed its mind if forecast models are to be believed.

So good rains are expected over northern Maharashtra in a couple of days but Gujarat will remain largely dry. Maybe some heavy showers in central Gujarat are possible on July 8 but Saurashtra, Kutch will remain rainless.

Another rain system will affect western Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan around July 12, 2016. Good rains are expected in Uttar Pradesh in mid July.

Most parts of Gujarat are in for a long dry spell. Heavy rainfall is possible in Sindh, including Karachi on July 13-14. Unless of course the unpredictable monsoon 2016 springs a surprise.

Monsoon Activity: Northern Then Western India On July 7

JUNE 30, 2016

The recent monsoon wave that affected western India turned out to be weak and short. There were a few showers in north Gujarat and Saurashtra. Kutch and Sindh were left mainly dry. The wave petered out too quickly.

GFS forecast maps for South Asia

Now we look forward to the next rain system that will affect western India. That will come on July 7, 2016, via Madhya Pradesh. Forecast models predict very heavy rains in entire Gujarat beginning July 7. It will drench the state for 3-4 days. Even Sindh will receive heavy rains around July 9. Ths system will be a deluge maker unlike the recently deceased weak system.

Meanwhile monsoon will become active in central and northern India with the onset of July. Very heavy rains are likely in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh around July 3-4, 2016.  I guess monsoons will reach Delhi with the current expected wave by July 5.

One worrying aspect of this monsoon is that it has been lukewarm. Even in areas where it has rained the amount has been little. Flooding rains have not occurred anywhere. Though El Niño is no more, La Niña is not ascending quickly enough. The CFS, Climate Forecast System, predicts very poor below average rainfall through out India in the second half of July. Hope my apprehensions are proved wrong.

JULY 1: 2016 UPDATE 

The system to watch now is the low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal presently off the Odisha coast. Now this low/upper air cyclonic circulation is going to meander around half India in the next 7 days bringing heavy rains wherever it goes.

It will go to West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and end up in Gujarat on July 7-8. A very twisted track for a rain system. Just like the twisted unpredictable monsoon 2016.

Make no mistake. This system may bring flooding rains to Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch and coastal Sindh around July 6-7-8.

La Niña to kick in from July, monsoon may shed lethargy

JUNE 22, 2016

After all the hullabaloo about a bumper 2016 monsoon, June has been a disappointment. Speaking mildly. Most Mumbaikars learnt that monsoon had arrived in the city from IMD news reports in the media. So low key has been the premiere this year.

The story is the same throughout India. No flooding incessant rains. No waterlogged metros. Nothing. It leaves a sinking feeling in the heart. 

But despair not........

All right. All right. We have said this a couple of times before. But so constipated has been the monsoon that the expected revival either fizzles out or does not occur at all.

Perhaps El Niño's ghost still lurks around.

But by end June things will look up. La Niña will arrive in style and unleash the rain gods from July 1, 2016. The Bay of Bengal will spawn a low pressure area off the Andhra Pradesh coast on June 30. Even the Arabian Sea will join the party with heavy precipitation in coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan by then. It remains to be seen if the rain system reaches Mumbai or goes off tangentially into the sea.

Our present prediction is from July 1, monsoon will start using its heavy artillery.

JUNE 23 UPDATE

Later data from forecast models support the rejuvenation of the monsoons by June end. In fact it might happen earlier. On June 27, the Arabian Sea will wake from its slumber and spawn a low pressure area in the northern part. It will not intensify into a depression or cyclone but it will giving a boost to rainfall/thunderstorm activity in the subcontinent.

Flooding rains from June 28 in coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, coastal Karnataka, Goa, Konkan and perhaps even Mumbai.

Things are going to really rock by June end.

Rainfall activity to be vigorous over Karnataka, Goa coast in coming days

Image credit: Political Indian 

JUNE 4, 2016

The progress of the monsoon in 2016 will be undramatic this year. No drenching depression or tropical cyclone that will propel it into India. Just slow incremental progress. A tortoise not a hare.

Update, June 6: NOAA says MJO, Madden Julian Oscillation, will become active in Indian Ocean from June 8, hence monsoon will become vigorous soon. It also says possibility of a tropical cyclone in South China Sea is receding. 

Numerical weather prediction, NWP, models have been giving out erratic, inconsistent predictions. Just yesterday the European model hinted at a depression or a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. In today's data, there is none.

After analysing data from various models we have some insight into what is going to happen on the monsoon front in the coming days.

Rainfall activity after a few days will fizzle out on the eastern coast states like Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Though the northeastern states will remain wet. Monsoon should enter there in a few days.

Though some models see a different future for Andhra Pradesh. According to them rainfall will remain over the state till June 10 when a low pressure area may form off the coast. The system will move through the Bay of Bengal and drench northern Myanmar/Chittagong area after a couple of days.

But this scenario is not supported by the multi-model ensemble forecast. The rainfall forecast map valid till June 9 shows significant precipitation only in Karnataka, Kerala and Indian north eastern states.

The focus of attention will be the Arabian Sea coast of India. Karnataka is going to be pounded by rains for days. Coastal Karnataka and Goa will see increasing rainfall activity. This will slowly spread to Konkan and then Mumbai.

Monsoon may knock on its door on June 13-14 along with rest of Maharashtra. Gujarat on June 18-20.

Looking at rainfall forecast maps issued by NOAA's model we can say that by June 20, the rainy season will have started in Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. We are talking here of the northern limit of monsoon's progress.

European Forecast Model Hints At Heavy Rains In Andhra On June 8

JUNE 1, 2016

While the American GFS predicts heavy rains in Mumbai, Gujarat around June 10, 2016, the European ECMWF model is betting on Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on June 7-8.

It expects a low pressure area to develop on the Andhra coast on June 7, which will bring heavy precipitation to Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha and West Bengal.

Leading forecast models are thus disagreeing where the monsoons will change gears: West coast or east coast of India.

Keep in touch for updates.

XWF Forecast: Canadian Climate Model CANSIPS Predicts Good 2016 Indian Monsoon

April 25, 2016

After the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) and NOAA, the Canadian Climate Model too predicts a bumper South West Monsoon in 2016.

The CANSIPS (Canadian Seasonal and Inter-annual Prediction System) developed by the Canadian met says most parts of India will receive above average rainfall June's-September this year. In fact it foresees good November precipitation too.

Below are maps for the predicted rainfall for India and South Asia for June-September 2016. The green color denotes above average rainfall. The orange color represents below average precipitation.

Western , central, northern and southern India will receive good bountiful rains. Only the eastern states of Odisha, Bihar, West Bengal and Indian North East is in for scanty rains. This forecast agrees more or less with the NOAA's NMME forecast.

Pakistan and Oman are in for a wet period July-September. Bangladesh and Myanmar will remain relatively dry this monsoon.

Please note that we had earlier predicted that Indian monsoon 2016 would be very wet as El Niño was going to become neutral by June and by September La Niña would be on the ascendancy.

Latest CANSIPS (May 1, 2016) Forecast

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction

JUNE 2016- Good rains in India's east and western states

JULY 2016 - Heaviest rains in Saurashtra and northern Tamil Nadu. Scanty in eastern states.

AUGUST 2016 - Deluge in Gujarat, coastal Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Deficient in Odisha, Chattisgarh and eastern Madhya Pradesh.

SEPTEMBER 2016 - Deluge again in Saurashtra and coastal Maharashtra. A cyclone perhaps? Drought in Odisha.