Bay of Bengal System May Reach Arabian Sea

SEPTEMBER  21, 2016, WEDNESDAY

A low pressure system has formed in the Bay of Bengal and is skipping around the Andhra Pradesh coast.

Now this circulation looks little  and ordinary at present but various foreçast models think highly of it. They think it is a "Lambe race ka ghoda"

A guy with dum, stamina and lot of staying power.

The GFS model thinks it might reach Iran by October 3!

This system is going to move through Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra and reach the Arabian  Sea around September 28, 2016.

Then it might intensify into a depression and move west towards the gulf of Oman.

It is not confirmed but  it might even turn into a tropical cyclone. But nothing is certain. The Madden Julian Oscillation is in the West Pacific hence it will not help this system. Whatever it does it will have to with its inherent "dum".

We have to wait and see how things happen. But Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra and even coastal Saurashtra might receive drenching rains in the coming days.

UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 23, 2016, FRIDAY

The news is disappointing. The Bay of Bengal low pressure system will reach Maharashtra around September 30, 2016, and weaken. There will be rains in Mumbai, Konkan, Maharashtra around that time. There might be some showers in Saurashtra as the dying system might reach the region.

Another low pressure system will form in the Bay of Bengal in early October but it will move to Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh before dissipating. 

This has been the usual story of the weak monsoon this year. An impotent Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea ejaculating weak storm cyclonic circulations which do not last. An absolute lack of depressions or tropical cyclones.

Unlike the Pacific Ocean which is spewing storms after storms and scaring the hell out of Taiwan. As we speak, another storm MEGI is intensifying as Taiwan shivers in anticipation.

 

Gujarat, Sindh Still Waiting For Rains

JULY 27, 2016

Half of the monsoon 2016 season has gone yet Gujarat and Sindh are still waiting for the rain gods. Neighbouring Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and most parts of Rajasthan have received good rainfall till now but due to the quirks of nature except for Dang and Amreli districts, Gujarat has been left mainly high and dry.

Looking forward, good rains are expected in central and north Gujarat on July 27-29. There might light showers in the rest of the state.

-----

"La Nina event, which affects rainfall and temperatures in the tropics, may develop in the third quarter of the year but it is likely to be weak and far less intense than El Nino that ended in May"

--World Meteorological Organisation 

------

The next hope is the expected cyclonic circulation that is expected to form over the state around August 3. It will arise in northern Madhya Pradesh on August 2 and then drift over to north Gujarat on August 3. It is likely to hover over the region for days. It may bring good rains to north Gujarat and the parched Kutch region. Even Sindh may receive good precipitation then.

The GFS forecast model is forecasting the formation of a strong low pressure area off the Andhra-Odisha coast on August 6, 2016. It further says the system will cut through Andhra, Telangana, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and reach Gujarat around August 9 bringing heavy rains everywhere.

The European model ECMWF expects the system to form earlier, on August 2, near the Myanmar coast. It says it will then intensify into a depression/deep depression by the time reaches the Odisha coast on August 3-4, and knock on Vidarbha's door by August 6. Powerful system.

Looks like the monsoon is really going to change gears in August. La Niña effect?

But 10 days is a long time in weather forecasting. Let us wait and observe.

UPDATE JULY 28

Hardly 24 hours have passed and the GFS is having doubts about the expected Bay of Bengal low pressure area. Our advice would be take GFS forecasts with a big pinch of salt. The good news is the European model persists with the forecast of an intensification of monsoon activity from August 2. Good rains are expected in dry Kutch-Sindh region around August 4-5.

As the cyclonic circulation gives rain to Kutch on August 4, the much bigger monster system grows in the Bay of Bengal.

GFS believes this system will enter Andhra-Odisha on August 5-6, other models predict an earlier entry

Depression 99B To Bring Heavy Rains To MP, Maharashtra, Gujarat By September 20, 2015

The depression 99B that has formed in the Bay of Bengal and presently flooding Odisha has stamina. If forecasts are to be believed this system is not only to bring heavy rains to Chattisgarh, southern Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, northern Maharashtra, South and central Gujarat, and Saurashtra in the next 5 days but will in fact intensify from a 997 Mb storm to a 994 Mb storm when it hovers over Saurashtra on September 21, 2015.

It has just crossed the Odisha coast and bringing heavy precipitation to the region. In the next  72 hours it is going to reach Gujarat. On September 20, 2015 it will move onto Saurashtra and then hover over the region for a day or two and then abruptly move towards western Rajasthan and onto Haryana, Delhi and even Kashmir. Heavy rains are expected in these states till September 26.

The above was the American NCEP forecast. The European forecast differs on the track for the low pressure 99B. It predicts it will move into Sindh after Saurashtra and move north right through Pakistan. if the ECMWF model proves to be accurate then Pakistan is in for very heavy rains from September 22 onwards. And the system is expected to traverse throughout the country.

But that possibility seems to be receding. The latest data from the model says 99B will suddenly weaken on September 22, 2015 as it leaves Saurashtra and enters the Arabian Sea and then drift back through northwest Gujarat into Rajasthan and further into northern India before dissipating.

Wherever it goes 99B has a lot of energy and it will flood many areas before it peters out. And that is not expected for another 10 days.

Keep  in touch for latest forecasts for 99B. It has the computer models confused and they have been giving out different track forecasts with successive bulletins.

Big rain-maker system 99B needs to be closely monitored.

See Detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps

Track The Storm

Depression/low 99B over Odisha. Latest satellite image taken at 0400 GMT, September 16, 2015

Bay of Bengal Low Will Move To Arabian Sea September 18, 2015

The Indian monsoon is withdrawing but storm activity has begun in the Bay of
Bengal with a low pressure area forming. This system is going to hover around near the Andhra coast for the next 5 days bringing rains to peninsular India especially in Odisha, Andhra, Telangana and northern Karnataka.

The low will then traverse west through India and hop into the Arabian Sea on September 18, 2015. Increased rainfall is expected in Konkan coast by then.

The low in the Arabian Sea may intensify into a depression and will move close by the coast of Saurashtra till September 24.

After that it will swing back into the open sea and move to northeastern coast of Oman. It will be gradually weakening all that time so Oman may expect some showers by September 27.

The European Model too supports increased storm activity near the Konkan coast around September 18-20, but it is not as hopeful as the GFS that the system will intensify much.

The European model envisages another Bay of Bengal low/depression moving through Odisha, Chattisgarh, Bihar and onto Uttar Pradesh around September 22, but the GFS stays mum on the forecast.

So we see different forecasts by two computer models.

The point they agree upon is... A Bay of Bengal low pressure moving west reaching Arabian Sea around September 19, 2015. The rest is differing predictions.

Monitor North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay Of Bengal) LIVE

No Cyclone For Now In Arabian Sea

There is disappointing news for cyclone enthusiasts. Latest forecasts indicate that the possibility of a storm developing in the Arabian Sea is receding.

We had earlier portended that cyclone Chapala was imminent in the Arabian Sea on September 20, 2015. Latest data from the GFS model rules out this possibility.

The European Model denies even a low pressure in the Arabian Sea.

But a low pressure in the Bay of Bengal is very much in the cards. This low will be born within a couple of days. The ECMWF model is bearish on this system. It might throw down a lot of rain in Andhra and Telangana but then it expects it to fizzle out.

The GFS model is much more bullish. We stand by our earlier forecast of the Bay of Bengal low moving across Andhra, Telangana, Maharashtra and then rejuvenating in the Arabian Sea on September 20, 2015.

So lots of rain on Konkan coast and Mumbai around then. The low in the Arabian Sea will then move to coastal Saurashtra around September 22, but the chances of this low developing into a cyclone seems remote for now.

But what we say now may change in the coming days, so taking today's forecast as gospel truth would be a mistake. We are just reporting the trends. Anything can happen on September 20, 2015.

We notice another low developing in the Arabian Sea around September 25. A cyclone perhaps? But more on that as the situation develops.

Now some good news and some bad news.

The bad news is bad boy El Nino is still very strong even in September. It screwed up the Indian monsoon rains in 2015.

The good news is Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is strongly positive presently. A positive IOD means good rains and storms in North Indian Ocean.

Bad news. El Nino is still strong in September

Good news! Indian Ocean Dipole very positive presently

Rain-Maker Depression To Deluge Andhra, Maharashtra, Mumbai By September 20, 2015

We had predicted a low pressure/depression in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea almost a week ago. The system will form on September 14, 2015 near the Andhra coast.

The Bay of Bengal is already showing increased storm activity in preparation of the birth of the rain maker weather system.

The low pressure area will form off the eastern coast of India near Andhra Pradesh and hover around for the next two days till September 18 bringing heavy rainfall in Andhra Pradesh.

It will then cross the coast and move through Andhra, Telangana, Northern Karnataka, Maharashtra onto Mumbai.

Very heavy rains are expected in Mumbai on September 20.

The low pressure area will then intensify again in the warm waters of the Arabian Sea into a depression/deep depression (Forecasts rule out a tropical cyclone presently, but 10 days is a long long time in weather forecasting. Anything can happen).

The depression is expected to move along the Saurashtra coast into the open sea and reach the coast of central Oman on September 23, 2015. Though the European model believes it will move into Gujarat on September 20. We have to wait awhile before the picture becomes clearer.

In a nutshell the low pressure area is going to bring very heavy rains to Andhra to Mumbai from September 14.

 A SECOND DEPRESSION IN THE BAY OF BENGAL?

A forecast model predicts a depression moving into Odisha on September 21, 2015, but this is yet to be confirmed by other models. It appears that the present low pressure area in the South China Sea is going to do a lot of travelling over Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar and then hop over into the Bay of Bengal on September 19. This will then gain strength and become a deep depression and hit Odisha as we have said earlier. Chances are this predicted system has the makings of another tropical cyclone. As there are  10 more days to go and forecasts have the habit of changing in these many days.

The European Model predicts this low in the South China Sea will hit Odisha on September 21, 2015

Cyclone CHAPALA to from off Konkan coast on September 20, 2015?

Monitor Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea LIVE

The depression as seen on September 21, 2015, moving away from the Indian coast off Mumbai.

Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea To Come Alive With Storms In Coming Days

As a tepid monsoon begins withdrawing from South Asia the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) is going to change gears and throw out low pressure areas, depression and may be even a tropical cyclone in the coming days by September 20, 2015.

It will begin with the Bay of Bengal mothering two low pressure areas soon. The first one will be engendered around September 12, 2015. Opinions differ as to its fate. It may start off near the Myanmar coast then potter around and come near the Indian coast bringing good rains in Andhra, Odisha and Tamil Nadu and finally fizzle out in a week.

Or it may form off the Andhra coast and then intensify into a big rain-making deep depression on September 14 and move inland and move through Madhya Pradesh and reach even Gujarat.

The Bay of Bengal is expected to generate another low pressure area on September 19, 2015 which will move into northern and eastern states of India.

The Arabian Sea is the one which may throw out a tropical cyclone (Chapala) or a deep depression. It will start off as a low pressure area near the Goa coast on September 18 and then intensify into a tropical cyclone by September 20, 2015. Where it heads to remains to be seen. Gujarat, Pakistan or Oman?

We have wait for confirmation of this upcoming cyclone by the European model. The American GFS model has been gung-ho about it since last 4-5 forecasts.

TRACK THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN LIVE

The situation as forecast by the GFS on September 23, 2015. The Arabian Sea cyclone/depression seems to be moving towards Oman.

Monsoon Rains In Eastern, Central India Till July 20, 2015

Monsoons will remain active over eastern, northeastern and parts of northern India in the next 15 days.

The present spells of rainfall in the states of West Bengal, Bihar, parts of Uttar Pradesh, the entire Indian northeast and Bangladesh is expected to continue in the coming 15 days. The region has a string of low pressure areas hovering above which will continuously feed rain to the above mentioned states.

The wet spell may occasionally stretch to western Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab but most of the precipitation will be concentrated in eastern India. Not to forget the areas on the foothills of the Himalayas. Namely Sikkim, Nepal, Uttaranchal and Himachal.

This rainfall satellite image was taken at 0500 GMT, July 6, 2015

A low pressure will form near the Odisha coast on Friday, July 10, 2015. This system will be a big rain maker and move through Chattisgarh and onto Madhya Pradesh after that. But it will start weakening and is not likely to reach western India.

The dire predictions of the Indian Meteorological Department seems to be coming true. The monsoon appears weak. In July usually the Bay of Bengal hurls lows and depressions one after another that cut across central and western India and bring rains to Gujarat, Rajasthan and Haryana-Punjab.

This year not one such system has formed. Gujarat was lucky to have that Arabian Sea depression in late June. Rajasthan still thirsts for rains.

The Bay of Bengal low that will form on July 10, 2015 will be a weak one. Weak low pressures equals weak rainy season this year.

The Western Pacific Ocean is presently spewing a string of powerful typhoons, one after another. Typhoons Chan-Hom, Linfa, Nangka, And there are a couple of  Invests in the waiting list. Phew! Its sucking off steam from the monsoons.

After Gujarat, Monsoon Will Shift To Uttar Pradesh. Heavy Rains By June 27, 2015

The next deluge spot in India after Gujarat is Uttar Pradesh. The reason being the Bay of Bengal low will collide with the remnants of the Arabian Sea low in the next 3 days. The result will be flooding.

The Bay of Bengal low is now in Banglasdesh. In the next two days it will move through West Bengal onto Bihar. The Arabian Sea rain system, which flooded Saurashtra is presently in northern Madhya Pradesh. In the next two days it will move towards eastern Uttar Pradesh. On June 27, June 2015, the two system will collide over the Uttar Pradesh-Bihar border.

The result will be heavy rains in the region.

So by the 27th of June we can envisage good rainfall activity in the following areas. Northern Madhya pradesh and Uttar Pradesh due to the Arabian Sea system. Bangladesh, West Bengal, Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh owing to the Bay of Bengal low pressure system.

The next big activity in monsoon 2015 will be a low pressure area forming in the Bay of Bengal around July 5, 2015. This is expected to move through Andhra, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. But this will be a weak system.

The reason? The expected massive typhoon that will form in early July, 2015 in the Western pacific and which will hit Hongkong, Macau and northern Vietnam.

There is a deep relationship between the storm activity in the north Indian Ocean and West Pacific. Especially with the strong prevailing El Nino the storm activity is rationed between the two oceans. One gets active then the other gets passive.

Since two typhoons are expected in early July in the Western Pacific, one can assume that there is going to be big lull in the Indian monsoons in the first half of July 2015.

The Bay of Bengal low is presently about to enter Bangladesh.