MAY 28, 2016
ITS RAINING IN KARNATAKA NOW, 1730 HRS IST
Satellite image reveals very heavy downpour in Karnataka, near Bangalore and Mysore. Also at Tiruppur. Showers also in coastal Andhra.
MAY 28, 2016
ITS RAINING CATS AND DOGS IN ANDHRA NOW
Highlight of today is the localised heavy rainfall in Visakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh since today morning. It has been raining heavily in the area for hours. This is because of an upper air cyclonic circulation over the area. This is going to hover around Telangana, Chattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh bringing localised thunderstorms.
Also the map below the satellite image shows where and how much (inches) will it rain till today, May 28, midnight IST
MAY 27, 2016
MONSOON MAY BE FURTHER DELAYED IN JUNE
MONSOON MAY BE FURTHER DELAYED
The IITM (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) suspects that the onset of monsoon along the Kerala coast may not happen even during June 5 to 10 despite some of the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle falling into place by then.
It remains to be seen if, as is being forecast by some models, a cyclonic circulation potentially taking shape off the Konkan coast and moving away generally towards Oman could prove the disruptor.
Other likely disruptive features include a cyclone (typhoon) each being forecast to erupt over the West Indian Ocean and the North-West Pacific during this week and the next.
From BUSINESSLINE (http://goo.gl/uBCfUA)
MAY 27, 2016
GLOBAL EFFECTS OF EL NINO, LA NIÑA
El Niño died this May. It had been strong since two years. And India suffered as a result. It had two consecutive lousy monsoons in 2014, 2015.
The maps show the effects of the two phenomena. Hopefully with La Niña on the ascendancy, India will have a good monsoon in 2016.
MAY 27, 2016
BAD MAN EL NINO IS DEAD. MONSOONS WILL ENVIGORATE IN JULY
Good riddance to El Niño. Most international climate agencies say it is dead. They also say La Niña, the fairy godmother for a good monsoon is making a comeback.
But the ill effects of ENSO, El Niño Southern Oscillation, will be felt on monsoon rains till June. Rainfall activity will be curbed as a result. We talked of the dismal CFS forecast till June 22 yesterday.
But once La Niña gets going there may be flooding rains from July till October in India, Pakistan and even the Middle East (Oman, UAE) as a monsoon spillover effect. Long live La Niña!
The CPC diagram shows the dead of El Niño and the rise of La Niña.
MAY 26, 2016
CFS HAS WORRYING NEWS ABOUT MONSOON RAINS TILL JUNE 22, 2016
Just a glance at the latest weekly rainfall forecast from May 25 to June 22, 2016 by the CFS model gives us reason to be gloomy. Most of India barring some areas is expected to receive below average rainfall.
Forecasts by western climate forecast agencies and the Indian Met. has led us to expect a bumper monsoon this year. Well, the start at least is going to be inauspicious if one looks at CFS data.
In the forecast maps for next four weeks the green color denotes above average rainfall. The ominous orange color shows below average rains. The white color denotes average precipitation at the place at this time of the year.
Looking at the maps we gather that barring Gujarat, Bihar, Uttarakhand, North Eastern states, some parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh there will be poor rainfall. The rain deficit is particularly high in western and southern India especially Kerala.
What is even gloomier is that both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal show vast stretches of orange. Meaning rainfall activity is poor even in the seas.
Hope we have bumper July rains. Or a drenching depression or two would be welcome (There is a possibility of a depression near the Andhra coast on June 4).
Rains in June are expected to be poor. They are expected to dramatically rise in July-August as the good effects of the unlamented demise of El Niño start kicking in.
MAY 26, 2016
GFS INDICATES TWO STORM POSSIBILITIES AROUND JUNE 10
The first is a depression affecting southern China on the Hong Kong-Hainan coast in the South China Sea. Later GFS data says it's going to be a full blown tropical cyclone (Typhoon NEPARTAK) that may smash through Taiwan on June 10-11, 2016.
The second is a ominous strengthening circulation in the central Arabian Sea at the same time. That is June 10.
Mind you these are just possibilities at present.
MAY 25, 2016
WHY ARE NO CYCLONES FORMING NOW?
We wonder. The time is ripe. Pre- monsoon period. There is an upper air circulation in central Arabian Sea. Why is it not transforming into a tropical cyclone? (Latest GFS data hints at a depression hitting Andhra Pradesh coast on June 7, 2016).
The answer is because of MJO, MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION. At the time of ROANU the MJO was passing through eastern Indian Ocean. Presently it is around Indonesia and withering away.
The MJO gives impetus to existing stormy conditions and favours cyclone formation.
MAY 25, 2016
RAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO INDIA
Not with a bang engined by a tropical depression or cyclone but gradually. Kerala is already experiencing showers. By month end Mumbai and Gujarat will receive light rainfall. Kerala, Karnataka and southern Andhra will be the wettest in the near future.
For Kerala the IMD warns.....
HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING: Heavy rainfall is most likely to occur at one or two places in Kerala from 27th May 2016 till
the morning of 29th May 2016.
27th May: Heavy rain is likely at isolated places over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.28th May : Heavy rain is likely at isolated places over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
MAY 24, 2016
RAINS COMING TO INDIAN WEST COAST
The monsoons are slowly building up in the Arabian Sea. There is a lot of instability which will spread in the coming days and bring rains to Kerala. By May 28 rainfall activity will increase in coastal Kerala and Karnataka as the Arabian Sea will push in precipitation.
Analysis of forecast data reveals both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea will remain very unstable. This always happens prior to the onset of monsoons. Numerous upper level circulations will develop.
Some models are hinting at cyclone KYANT developing in the Bay of Bengal around June 1. But it is too premature to take it seriously.
Anything is possible in the coming few weeks. We are closely observing and will keep you posted of significant developments.
Below is a map showing total precipitation (in inches) till May 28, 2016.
MAY 23, 2016
IT ALL STARTS FROM HERE.....
Just look at the latest satellite image of central Arabian Sea below. There is an intense cluster of thunderstorms. An oasis in a rainless sea. This system over the next few days will move east to the Indian coast.
Rains in Kerala will start. Then consolidate. They will then spread to coastal Karnataka. The entire sea will be full of rain systems by end of May.
It is from these expanding area of thunderstorms that the GFS forecast model expects a depression or cyclone will be spawned in early June.
Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.
MAY 23, 2016
GFS SHOWS ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE ON JUNE 7. 2016
The Global Forecast System in its 1800 UTC yesterday's data is indicating a big cyclone just south of the Gujarat coast on June 7, 2016.
Let us see if this prediction sustains. It expects the storm to start off as a low pressure area on June 4 near Karnataka coast.
Latest GFS data shows only a low pressure area on May 8.
The prediction by the GFS will have to sustain itself if we are to take it with any seriousness. Moreover it should be supported by other models.
The European model hints at a low forming on the Odisha coast on May 29.
Confusing state of affairs.
We shall watch the situation.
MAY 22, 2016
CFS MODEL PREDICTS HEAVY RAINS ON COASTAL MAHARASHTRA, GUJARAT BY JUNE 5
Most forecast models are not predicting extreme weather events in the coming few days for South Asia and Middle East. But the CFS has some cheering news. It predicts a heavy rain system bringing precipitation to coasts of western India and Sindh between May 29 and June 6.
It predicts upto 6 inches of rain in some places of Maharashtra and Gujarat. And about an inch or two in Gujarat and coastal Sindh. See the forecast map below.
The CFS forecast is supported by the GFS ensemble forecast. See the map below.
The map has some disappointing news too. If we believe this forecast then the map shows very weak below normal monsoon activity elsewhere. See the rampant orange colour? It means below average rains. The IMD has already warned of delayed onset of monsoon this year.
MAY 22, 2016
MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY BY JUNE 7, 2017
In meteorology one way to know thunderstorm activity is CAPE, Convective Available Potential Energy. Higher the CAPE, greater the instability in the atmosphere. If the atmosphere is unstable, thunderstorms arise, rain happens.
Given below are CAPE maps of today and June 7, 2016. There is a dramatic increase in CAPE.
One sees great atmosphere instability (CAPE) not only in India, Pakistan but along the Oman coast , Gulf of Oman and Bay of Bengal. Only Indian southern states will have tranquil weather.
One can conclude that a lot is going to happen in the next 15 days.
The maps are based on GFS Ensemble model.
MAY 21, 2016
These clusters of thunderstorms in the Arabian Sea as shown in the latest IR satellite image need to be watched.
In the following days these will slowly move east and bring rains to the Indian west coast.
MAY 21, 2016
GFS SHOWS STORM FORMATION OFF MUMBAI JUNE 6
The latest GFS data shows a depression forming on June 6, 2016, in the Arabian Sea off the Mumbai coast. 15 days is a long long time in weather forecasting.
Let us see if the prediction sticks.
The BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System) model predicts a low forming in the Arabian Sea by May end, but we have our doubts about the veracity of this model.
MAY 21, 2016
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ON INDIAN WEST COAST BY JUNE 4
Though NWP models do not foresee any significant storm developing in the Arabian Sea in the coming days, rainfall activity will increase substantially in the sea.
This will be because of the pre-monsoon activity. Call it whatever you will. The fact is rains are coming on India's west coast.
It will be particularly heavy in coastal Kerala and Karnataka. 30 inches of rain by June 4. The map below shows the total accumulated precipitation till June 4, 2016. The data is from NOAA's GFS forecast model. The yellow colour denotes heaviest rainfall.
The IMD sees a good chance of an Arabian Sea cyclone on May 27, 2016.
MAY 20, 2016
CFS MODEL PREDICTS RAINS ON INDIAN WEST COAST BY MAY END
One is not very sure of the reliability of this forecast by the Coupled Forecast System. But it foresees a heavy rain system moving north along the coast in the Arabian Sea and bringing rains to (coastal areas of) Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat by May 31, 2016.
MAY 20, 2016
The Indian Meteorological Department, IMD, thinks there is 30+% chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea in the coming week, especially on May 25, 2016. Off the Gujarat coast.
Latest GFS data indicate a growing clusters of intense thunderstorms in central Arabian Sea by May 25, 2016. But none of the forecast models are hinting at a storm presently.
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