Heat Wave In India To Abate By May End

MAY 22, 2016

The maximum temperatures in many parts of India rose to frightening levels. It started with parts of eastern India. Odisha was badly affected. But cyclone ROANU has brought relief.

Gujarat had Ahmedabad touching 48 degrees centigrade on May 19, 2016. But the onset of monsoon winds from the Arabian Sea has cooled Gujarat.

But Rajasthan, Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh are still steaming. Churu and Ganganagar in Rajasthan registered 49.2 degrees yesterday.

But the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune has good news. It says.....

Day maximum & night minimum temperatures are likely to remain markedly above normal over entire northwest, west & central India during 17th – 26th May. They are likely to fall to their respective normal / below normal values during the period 27th May – 1st June.

What is the reason for this record high temperatures? Meteorologists and climate scientists will have a field day analysing. But ask the ordinary guy on the street. "Global warming", he/she replies promptly.

There, you got the answer.

What to do to beat the killer heat?

Avoid going out in the sun as much as possible. Use a white cap, handkerchief to cover your head. Wear white cotton clothes.

Drink lots of cool water. 22 glasses of water a day.

Bathing in cool water twice a day is a good idea.

Drink buttermilk, lemonade, fruit juices.

Eat watermelon.

Some say eating onions is a good way to beat the heat.

Eat light food. Avoid spicy, oily food.

Drinking glucose/Electral which has sodium, potassium to deal with dehydration.

Given below is the forecast till the end of the month. Heat wave conditions will ameliorate in most parts of India except Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Sadly heat will return to Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and parts of Andhra. The temporary healing effects of ROANU will wear off by then.

Interestingly along with western India temperature has dramatically dropped in Muscat too. It had been hovering in the upper 40s during the last few days. Today it dropped to 41 degrees centigrade. The temperature will not go to the highs of the past few days. It will hover around 40 degrees centigrade.

Heat wave warning issued by the Indian Met for today.

Extreme Weather, Monsoon, Cyclone Possibilities May (20-31) 2016 Updates

MAY 28, 2016

ITS RAINING IN KARNATAKA NOW, 1730 HRS IST

Satellite image reveals very heavy downpour in Karnataka, near Bangalore and Mysore. Also at Tiruppur. Showers also in coastal Andhra.

MAY 28, 2016

ITS RAINING CATS AND DOGS IN ANDHRA NOW

Highlight of today is the localised heavy rainfall in Visakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh since today morning. It has been raining heavily in the area for hours. This is because of an upper air cyclonic circulation over the area. This is going to hover around Telangana, Chattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh bringing localised thunderstorms.

Also the map below the satellite image shows where and how much (inches) will it rain till today, May 28, midnight IST 

MAY 27, 2016

MONSOON MAY BE FURTHER DELAYED IN JUNE

MONSOON MAY BE FURTHER DELAYED 

The IITM (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) suspects that the onset of monsoon along the Kerala coast may not happen even during June 5 to 10 despite some of the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle falling into place by then.

It remains to be seen if, as is being forecast by some models, a cyclonic circulation potentially taking shape off the Konkan coast and moving away generally towards Oman could prove the disruptor.

Other likely disruptive features include a cyclone (typhoon) each being forecast to erupt over the West Indian Ocean and the North-West Pacific during this week and the next.

From BUSINESSLINE (http://goo.gl/uBCfUA)

MAY 27, 2016

GLOBAL EFFECTS OF EL NINO, LA NIÑA 

El Niño died this May. It had been strong since two years. And India suffered as a result. It had two consecutive lousy monsoons in 2014, 2015.

The maps show the effects of the two phenomena. Hopefully with La Niña on the ascendancy, India will have a good monsoon in 2016.

MAY 27, 2016

BAD MAN EL NINO IS DEAD. MONSOONS WILL ENVIGORATE IN JULY 

Good riddance to El Niño. Most international climate agencies say it is dead. They also say La Niña, the fairy godmother for a good monsoon is making a comeback.

But the ill effects of ENSO, El Niño Southern Oscillation, will be felt on monsoon rains till June. Rainfall activity will be curbed as a result. We talked of the dismal CFS forecast till June 22 yesterday.

But once La Niña gets going there may be flooding rains from July till October in India, Pakistan and even the Middle East (Oman, UAE) as a monsoon spillover effect. Long live La Niña!

The CPC diagram shows the dead of El Niño and the rise of La Niña.

MAY 26, 2016

CFS HAS WORRYING NEWS ABOUT MONSOON RAINS TILL JUNE 22, 2016

Just a glance at the latest weekly rainfall forecast from May 25 to June 22, 2016 by the CFS model gives us reason to be gloomy. Most of India barring some areas is expected to receive below average rainfall.

Forecasts by western climate forecast agencies and the Indian Met. has led us to expect a bumper monsoon this year. Well, the start at least is going to be inauspicious if one looks at CFS data.

In the forecast maps for next four weeks the green color denotes above average rainfall. The ominous orange color shows below average rains. The white color denotes average precipitation at the place at this time of the year.

Looking at the maps we gather that barring Gujarat, Bihar, Uttarakhand, North Eastern states, some parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh there will be poor rainfall. The rain deficit is particularly high in western and southern India especially Kerala.

What is even gloomier is that both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal show vast stretches of orange. Meaning rainfall activity is poor even in the seas.

Hope we have bumper July rains. Or a drenching depression or two would be welcome (There is a possibility of a depression near the Andhra coast on June 4).

Rains in June are expected to be poor. They are expected to dramatically rise in July-August as the good effects of the unlamented demise of El Niño start kicking in.

MAY 26, 2016

GFS INDICATES TWO STORM POSSIBILITIES AROUND JUNE 10

The first is a depression affecting southern China on the Hong Kong-Hainan coast in the South China Sea. Later GFS data says it's going to be a full blown tropical cyclone (Typhoon NEPARTAK) that may smash through Taiwan on June 10-11, 2016.

The second is a ominous strengthening circulation in the central Arabian Sea at the same time. That is June 10.

Mind you these are just possibilities at present.

MAY 25, 2016

WHY ARE NO CYCLONES FORMING NOW?

We wonder. The time is ripe. Pre- monsoon period. There is an upper air circulation in central Arabian Sea. Why is it not transforming into a tropical cyclone? (Latest GFS data hints at a depression hitting Andhra Pradesh coast on June 7, 2016).

The answer is because of MJO, MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION. At the time of ROANU the MJO was passing through eastern Indian Ocean. Presently it is around Indonesia and withering away.

The MJO gives impetus to existing stormy conditions and favours cyclone formation.

MAY 25, 2016

RAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO INDIA 

Not with a bang engined by a tropical depression or cyclone but gradually. Kerala is already experiencing showers. By month end Mumbai and Gujarat will receive light rainfall. Kerala, Karnataka and southern Andhra will be the wettest in the near future.

For Kerala the IMD warns.....

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING: Heavy rainfall is most likely to occur at one or two places in Kerala from 27th May 2016 till the morning of 29th May 2016.

27th May:  Heavy rain is likely at isolated places over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.28th May : Heavy rain is likely at isolated places over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

MAY 24, 2016

RAINS COMING TO INDIAN WEST COAST

The monsoons are slowly building up in the Arabian Sea. There is a lot of instability which will spread in the coming days and bring rains to Kerala. By May 28 rainfall activity will increase in coastal Kerala and Karnataka as the Arabian Sea will push in precipitation.

Analysis of forecast data reveals both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea will remain very unstable. This always happens prior to the onset of monsoons. Numerous upper level circulations will develop.

Some models are hinting at cyclone KYANT developing in the Bay of Bengal around June 1. But it is too premature to take it seriously.

Anything is possible in the coming few weeks. We are closely observing and will keep you posted of significant developments.

Below is a map showing total precipitation (in inches) till May 28, 2016. 

MAY 23, 2016

IT ALL STARTS FROM HERE.....

Just look at the latest satellite image of central Arabian Sea below. There is an intense cluster of thunderstorms. An oasis in a rainless sea. This system over the next few days will move east to the Indian coast.

Rains in Kerala will start. Then consolidate. They will then spread to coastal Karnataka. The entire sea will be full of rain systems by end of May.

It is from these expanding area of thunderstorms that the GFS forecast model expects a depression or cyclone will be spawned in early June.

Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.

MAY 23, 2016

GFS SHOWS ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE ON JUNE 7. 2016

The Global Forecast System in its 1800 UTC yesterday's data is indicating a big cyclone just south of the Gujarat coast on June 7, 2016.

Let us see if this prediction sustains. It expects the storm to start off as a low pressure area on June 4 near Karnataka coast.

Latest GFS data shows only a low pressure area on May 8.

The prediction by the GFS will have to sustain itself if we are to take it with any seriousness. Moreover it should be supported by other models.

The European model hints at a low forming on the Odisha coast on May 29.

Confusing state of affairs.

We shall watch the situation.

MAY 22, 2016

CFS MODEL PREDICTS HEAVY RAINS ON COASTAL MAHARASHTRA, GUJARAT BY JUNE 5

Most forecast models are not predicting extreme weather events in the coming few days for South Asia and Middle East. But the CFS has some cheering news. It predicts a heavy rain system bringing precipitation to coasts of western India and Sindh between May 29 and June 6.

It predicts upto 6 inches of rain in some places of Maharashtra and Gujarat. And about an inch or two in Gujarat and coastal Sindh. See the forecast map below.

The CFS forecast is supported by the GFS ensemble forecast. See the map below.

The map has some disappointing news too. If we believe this forecast then the map shows very weak below normal monsoon activity elsewhere. See the rampant orange colour? It means below average rains. The IMD has already warned of delayed onset of monsoon this year.

MAY 22, 2016

MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY BY JUNE 7, 2017

In meteorology one way to know thunderstorm activity is CAPE, Convective Available Potential Energy. Higher the CAPE, greater the instability in the atmosphere. If the atmosphere is unstable, thunderstorms arise, rain happens.

Given below are CAPE maps of today and June 7, 2016. There is a dramatic increase in CAPE.

One sees great atmosphere instability (CAPE) not only in India, Pakistan but along the Oman coast , Gulf of Oman and Bay of Bengal. Only Indian southern states will have tranquil weather.

One can conclude that a lot is going to happen in the next 15 days.

The maps are based on GFS Ensemble model.

MAY 21, 2016

These clusters of thunderstorms in the Arabian Sea as shown in the latest IR satellite image need to be watched.

In the following days these will slowly move east and bring rains to the Indian west coast.

MAY 21, 2016

GFS SHOWS STORM FORMATION OFF MUMBAI JUNE 6

The latest GFS data shows a depression forming on June 6, 2016, in the Arabian Sea off the Mumbai coast. 15 days is a long long time in weather forecasting.

Let us see if the prediction sticks.

The BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System) model predicts a low forming in the Arabian Sea by May end, but we have our doubts about the veracity of this model.

MAY 21, 2016

HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ON INDIAN WEST COAST BY JUNE 4

Though NWP models do not foresee any significant storm developing in the Arabian Sea in the coming days, rainfall activity will increase substantially in the sea.

This will be because of the pre-monsoon activity. Call it whatever you will. The fact is rains are coming on India's west coast.

It will be particularly heavy in coastal Kerala and Karnataka. 30 inches of rain by June 4. The map below shows the total accumulated precipitation till June 4, 2016. The data is from NOAA's GFS forecast model. The yellow colour denotes heaviest rainfall.

The IMD sees a good chance of an Arabian Sea cyclone on May 27, 2016.

MAY 20, 2016

CFS MODEL PREDICTS RAINS ON INDIAN WEST COAST BY MAY END

One is not very sure of the reliability of this forecast by the Coupled Forecast System. But it foresees a heavy rain system moving north along the coast in the Arabian Sea and bringing rains to (coastal areas of) Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat by May 31, 2016.

MAY 20, 2016

The Indian Meteorological Department, IMD, thinks there is 30+% chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea in the coming week, especially on May 25, 2016. Off the Gujarat coast.

Latest GFS data indicate a growing clusters of intense thunderstorms in central Arabian Sea by May 25, 2016. But none of the forecast models are hinting at a storm presently.

BAY OF BENGAL DEPRESSION TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO TAMIL NADU: ROANU COMING?

MAY 15, 2016

The low pressure area which has formed off the southeastern coast of Sri Lanka (Termed 91B by NOAA) will intensify soon into a depression and move into Tamil Nadu soon.

Under it's effects the state will witness heavy widespread rainfall for the next 48 hours till Tuesday, May 18. The rains will be accompanied by winds of 50-60 km/h.

The system may then move into the Bay of Bengal and hit coastal areas of Myanmar and Bangladesh by May 21. The system will intensify further on moving into the sea into a deep depression or even a moderate tropical cyclone, ROANU, on May 22.

It is also possible that cyclone ROANU may hit Bangladesh proper on May 24 and not Myanmar. If this happens windy rainfall is possible on the Odisha, West Bengal coast on May 23, 2016.

Some numerical forecast models suggest the system will meander around Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh for the next 3-4 days drenching these states thoroughly.

The MPE satellite image taken at 0530 GMT shows heavy rainfall in Sri Lanka presently. These rains will move into Tamil Nadu by early tomorrow.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates

Depression/Tropical Storm possible in Arabian Sea soon

There is a good possibility that a storm system will develop in the Arabian Sea in the coming one week. It is likely to bring rains to western India, Pakistan or Oman. We mention Oman because Arabian Sea storms have had a tendency to veer off towards Oman in recent years.

Bay of Bengal Depression May Intensify Into A Cyclone By May 20

MAY 16, 2016

Though it is not certain but there is good chance that the present Bay of Bengal depression 91B may turn into a tropical cyclone on Friday, May 20, 2016.

Presently the low pressure area has left Sri Lanka and in the next 24 hours will move along the Tamil Nadu coast. Heavy rainfall has already stated in southern districts of the state. By tomorrow they will spread to Chennai and adjoining areas.

By May 18, the depression will slide by the Andhra coast. Since it is not expected to move inland, Telangana will receive comparatively less precipitation than the Andhra coast.

By Friday the system may intensify into a tropical cyclone (ROANU). It is not expected to be a very powerful storm. A moderate cyclone with winds of around 80-90 km/h.

Southern coastal Odisha and northern Andhra will face strong winds and heavy rainfall.

The cyclone will rapidly move to Myanmar on May 21-22, 2016.

This scenario is not certain. As some numerical forecast models say the depression may weaken and move to Myanmar.

Only the NAVGEM model predicts a massive cyclone hit on Bangladesh. But at present it seems unlikely.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates 

DEEP DEPRESSION/TROPICAL STORM ROANU TO HIT TAMIL NADU MAY 17, 2016

MAY 13, 2016

STORM WARNING FOR SRI LANKA, TAMIL NADU 

THE low pressure area that has formed southeast of Sri Lanka will intensify into deep depression or possibly tropical cyclone ROANU and hit the coast of Tamil Nadu on May 17, 2016.

This Bay of Bengal storm system is expected by numerical weather prediction models to have a central minimum pressure of 985 hPa by the time it reaches the Tamil coast south of Chennai. That means a moderate storm with sustained winds of 70-80 km/h.

Though US NAVY NAVGEM model foresees a stronger cyclone with a 982 hPa pressure.

Strong winds torrential rain will lash the state from Tuesday. Chennai will be badly affected.

The system is then expected to hug the Indian coast and move into coastal Andhra Pradesh. If this happens, very heavy rains are expected in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, coastal West Bengal and Bangladesh in the coming week.

Heavy showers may start in Tamil Nadu from Monday  itself.

Please note that extreme weather systems like this upcoming depression are very unpredictable by nature. What we have forecast is gleaned from data from global NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models. And all the models are not in unanimity about the track of this system.

Some models are foreseeing a vicious cyclone that will move past the Tamil Nadu then Andhra coast onto Bangladesh. Hence please keep in touch with our latest updates. The situation is mercurial at present.

Though the European forecast model ECMWF is more sanguine about the expected storm. It believes it will be a depression, not a tropical cyclone. It predicts a different track for the system than the GFS model. See maps below.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates

As regards the future route of the system, there is an alternative possibility. The GFS believes it will weaken into a low pressure area after it swings away from Tamil Nadu into the sea and make landfall into Myanmar later in the week.

Track forecast for Bay of Bengal depression May 2016 by ECMWF and GFS.

May 2016: Extreme Weather Forecast And Possibilities, Updates

WET MONTH FOR OMAN AHEAD?

May 5, 2016

Oman and perhaps the UAE are in for a stormy wet month if forecast models are to be believed. By the last week of May, a low pressure/depression is likely to move into central Oman bringing heavy rains. 

Then by June 10, 2016 a powerful tropical cyclone may hit northern Oman. This storm is likely to form around June 5, 2016 near the Kerala-Karnataka coast of India.

These predictions are based on the CFS (Climate Forecast System) model created by the US agency CPC (Climate Prediction Center) and thus are nothing to sneeze at.

Though one cannot say 100% that a cyclone will hit Oman, since the CFS forecast has been persistently foretelling a storm since the last 10 days, there is a good possibility of a tropical cyclone in early June developing in the Arabian Sea. Where it goes remains to be seen.

US AGENCY CPC SAYS NO CYCLONE TILL MAY 17

May 4, 2016

The CPC, the US agency says in it's latest forecast that though there will be increased rainfall in southern Arabian Sea, a cyclone is unlikely till May 17.

Please note that the CFS model has been developed by the CPC.

It says....

"During Week-2, the CFS and ECMWF models agree that above-median rainfall will continue across the Horn of Africa and western Indian Ocean. Above-median rainfall forecast across far southern India, Sri Lanka, and parts of the central Indian Ocean is related to the potential for a developing MJO by mid-May. 

Tropical cyclone development is unlikely across the global tropics during the next two weeks. This inactive period for tropical cyclone genesis is typical for early May."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/

STORMS BREWING IN ARABIAN SEA IN END MAY
May 4, 2016

Latest CFS weekly forecasts indicate intense thunderstorm activity in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Oman after May 15, 2016. It is to be seen if it throws out a cyclone.

MONSOON WILL PUSH IN AROUND MAY 15
May 4, 2016

Below is the GFS forecast for May 15, 2016. It shows the high altitude 150 hPa winds. The easterly jet stream has been pushed up and the monsoon winds are arriving in the Andamans and Nicobar Islands.

TROPICAL CYCLONE UNLIKELY TILL MAY 22

May 4, 2016

The chances of a tropical cyclone developing in either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal till May 22 seems remote. The CFS which had been hinting at a Arabian Sea storm by May end says today in its data that a cyclone is now likely in the Bay of Bengal in mid June. 

This has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Cyclones are inherently unpredictable. And May-June being storm seasons anything can happen anytime.

FORECAST TILL MAY 22

MAY 3, 2016

This is from IITM (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune)

The next 20 days forecast indicates that

➢Subsequent to the likely rain spell over major parts of India during the first pentad,  heat wave conditions are likely to re-develop over parts of east & central India (viz., Gangetic west Bengal, Odisha, Vidarbha and Telangana) during 7th – 11th May.  This is likely to intensify and spread over to cover major parts of central and adjoining peninsular India and northwest India, during the period, 12th – 21st May.

➢Cyclogenesis is un-likely over the north Indian ocean during 2nd – 21st May.

➢However, cross equatorial flow in the lower troposphere is likely to reach south bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea around 15th May.

➢Likely eastward propagation of  the convective phase of MJO across the Indian ocean may cause a pre-monsoon rainfall peak, with above normal rainfall activity over extreme south peninsula during 12th – 21st May.

➢Western Disturbances are likely to cause above normal precipitation over western Himalayan region during 2nd – 6th May and 12th – 16th May.

CYCLONE ROANU IMMINENT AT MONTHS END?

May 2

Is a tropical cyclone brewing in the Arabian Sea?

Yes, if the Climate Forecast System, run by an US agency is to believed. 

The CFS though a climate forecast model gives daily updates. And it's data has been suggesting a cyclone forming near the Kerala coast around May 23, 2016 for the last few days.

The tropical cyclone ROANU will be a massive one and it will traverse northward in the Arabian Sea for a week.

At one time it seems it will hit Oman but it will swerve and hit Pakistan on June 1, 2016.

At present it is a mere possibility.

Support from weather models like the GFS and ECMWF is awaited.

Though the GFS in today's forecast data says a low pressure is likely to develop near the Indian Kerala coast on May 18.