VARDAH Effect: Chennai, Parts of AP, Tamil Nadu Stare At Floods Dec 12-13

DECEMBER 10, 2016, SATURDAY UPDATE

Our December 9 forecast regarding the track and intensity remains unchanged. Only Tamil Nadu is unlikely to benefit rain wise from this storm. Southern Andhra, parts of Rayalseema and Karnataka will receive most rainfall on December 12-13.

Nellore, Anantpur, Cuddapah and Chittoor districts in Andhra Pradesh. Chitradurga, Tumkur, Bangalore (N & S) districts in Karnataka.

DECEMBER 9, 2016, FRIDAY 

Latest forecasts by reliable forecast models say that owing to Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone VARDAH, southern parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, northern coastal Tamil Nadu, including Chennai may face flooding rains beginning December 12, 2016.

VARDAH is strengthening and moving away from the Andaman Nicobar islands. It is heading now in a west-north-westerly direction. Going by that one may think central Andhra coast will be the target of this storm. Both the American GFS model and US Navy's JTWC think so too.

But come December 11 and the cyclone will dip southward and make landfall bang on the Andhra-Tamil Nadu border coast on late evening of December 12. Hence the chance of a Chennai deluge. We think the storm will bring more rains to Tamil Nadu than to Rayalseema because of the last moment "dip".

At present it a 986 hPa storm. Sustained winds well over 100 km/h. But it will weaken before landfall. 

The districts in Tamil Nadu which may be most affected are Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram and Vellore. The Andhra districts of Nellore, Cuddapah and Chittoor will be worst hit.

As NADA Brings NE Monsoon To Tamil Nadu, Tropical Cyclone VARDAH May Hit Andhra Soon

DECEMBER 1, 2016, THURSDAY

The rain gods have awakened at last. The weak tropical storm NADA hovering off the Tamil Nadu coast  is pushing the north east monsoons into southern India. The storm is diffused. It's flails are bringing rainfall even to far flung Andhra Pradesh. 

The JTWC estimates the wind speeds of NADA is 75 km/h, gusts upto 90 km/h. Rains are continuing in coastal Tamil Nadu under its influence. Rains in the state will continue for the next 24-36 hours. Neighbouring Kerala may receive rainfall on December 3, especially Kochi.

Nada will make landfall today evening near Nagapattinam.

Nada is a little boy. Another cyclone in the Bay of Bengal is imminent soon. And it is going to be big, bad and very ugly. Cyclone VARDAH has already been born in the South China Sea. In a day or two it will slip into the Bay of Bengal. Forecast models hint at the possibility of the low pressure intensifying into 975 hPa roaring monster which hit Andhra Pradesh on December 10, 2016.

Monsoon To Intensify From June 18, 2016

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JUNE 13, 2016

Monsoon has been quite dormant after the push into Kerala, Karnataka and parts of Andhra Pradesh a few days back. Nothing dramatic is expected in the next 2-3 days except that it may move into Goa and some parts of North East India. Even the Goa part seems doubtful at present.

The Center of attraction is the Indian north east. Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland. It is going to rain cats and dogs here for at least the next three days. I guess it is monsoon entering in the area.

But from June 18, things are going to change elsewhere too. It will because of two circulations. One off Goa in the Arabian Sea. The second in the Bay of Bengal at the Andhra Pradesh coast.

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The monsoon will get very vigorous over Goa and northern Karnataka from June 18-19. Very heavy precipitation is expected in these regions. The rains will then move into the rest of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and parts of Maharashtra.

After that it is possible the monsoon may enter Mumbai, touch Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

There is a strong possibility of a low pressure area developing near the Goa coast on June 18-19. This system will have a lot of rain to throw. But present indications are that instead of moving north to Mumbai it will wander off in the sea. Where it goes is to be seen. Gujarat? Pakistan? Or head west towards Oman?

Heavy Rains Likely In Andhra, Telangana, Rayalseema In Coming Days

JUNE 3, 2016

As the monsoons are expected to hit Kerala in the next few days, the engine that will pull the rains into southern and eastern India is an upper air cyclonic circulation that will move over Andhra Pradesh on June 4, 2016.

The system will form over the state tomorrow, then  meander over Telangana, Rayalseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh till June 8-9. It will then move back over Visakhapatnam area and intensify.

It is expected to move back into the Bay of Bengal on June 11. It may slam into the Chittagong area of Bangladesh on June 12-13 after intensifying into a depression. Maybe even a tropical cyclone.

The south west monsoon will take awhile to reach western India. In the absence of any low/cyclonic circulations things will be relatively quieter on the western coast of India. Though rainfall activity will rise gradually. Indications are things will get hot, rather wet, around June 10 as a massive cluster of thunderstorms will form in the Arabian Sea off Konkan coast.

The satellite image shows the emerging circulation over Andhra Pradesh 

Bay of Bengal Depression May Intensify Into A Cyclone By May 20

MAY 16, 2016

Though it is not certain but there is good chance that the present Bay of Bengal depression 91B may turn into a tropical cyclone on Friday, May 20, 2016.

Presently the low pressure area has left Sri Lanka and in the next 24 hours will move along the Tamil Nadu coast. Heavy rainfall has already stated in southern districts of the state. By tomorrow they will spread to Chennai and adjoining areas.

By May 18, the depression will slide by the Andhra coast. Since it is not expected to move inland, Telangana will receive comparatively less precipitation than the Andhra coast.

By Friday the system may intensify into a tropical cyclone (ROANU). It is not expected to be a very powerful storm. A moderate cyclone with winds of around 80-90 km/h.

Southern coastal Odisha and northern Andhra will face strong winds and heavy rainfall.

The cyclone will rapidly move to Myanmar on May 21-22, 2016.

This scenario is not certain. As some numerical forecast models say the depression may weaken and move to Myanmar.

Only the NAVGEM model predicts a massive cyclone hit on Bangladesh. But at present it seems unlikely.

Bay of Bengal Storm Updates 

Bay of Bengal Storm Final Update: Nov 8, 2014: Cyclone Unlikely, Just A Depression On November 13. Heavy Rains Expected.

The expected November 13 storm in the Bay of Bengal that will move into Andhra will not be a cyclone but a depression with 40-50 Kph winds. 

In the last few days reliable forecast models had predicted a big cyclone would hit the Andhra coast on Nov 13. The forecast was the system would move into the Bay of Bengal from the Gulf of Thailand and turn into a cyclone.

But latest forecasts have downgraded the system to a mere depression. In short, no cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. The expected system will be at best a depression that would hit the Indian coast on November 13, 2014 with winds of about 40-50 Kph.

But it will bring very heavy rains to southern coastal Andhra, Puducherry and northern Tamil Nadu beginning from Wednesday night and will continue for another 48 hours after that. The system will move over into Karnataka and bring heavy rainfall there too on November 14, 2014. In fact all the Indian southern states will witness precipitation.

But no cyclone as we said earlier. We shall continue to monitor future forecasts by the various computer models and inform you whether there is any possibility of Cyclone Ashobaa. But the chance of the expected system intensifying into a big cyclone is low.

We will keep you updated.

Cyclone Ashobaa Update: A 120-155 Kph Storm: Will Hit Andhra Between Visakhapatnam And Puducherry November 12 Afternoon

Imminent cyclone Ashobaa in the Bay of Bengal will be a 120-155 Kph storm. It is expected to hit the Andhra coast between Visakhapatnam and Puducherry on November 12, 2014, afternoon [IST].

The present depression in the Bay of Bengal will weaken in a day or two and move to the Andhra coast on November 9 bringing it some rains. The wind speeds recorded in the system are about 50-55 Kph. Hardly cyclone standard. The IMD has rightly desisted from called it a cyclone [Contrary to what the JTWC says which calls it Tropical Cyclone 5B].

But the real thing; Cyclone Ashobaa, will come into the Bay of Bengal on November 9, 2014, from the Gulf of Thailand. It will then intensify into a 75-95 Kph cyclone just before it moves into the South Andaman Islands on the morning of November 10 [Sunday]. Our guess is the IMD will name it cyclone Ashobaa then.

Very strong winds and heavy rains are expected in the Andaman Islands on Sunday. it will then move in a WNW direction and when it will be some hundred kilometers from the Andhra Pradesh coast, it will further intensify into a 95-120 Kph cyclone.That will be on Tuesday night. [November 11, 2014].

It will further intensify and hit the Andhra coast between Visakhapatnam and Puducherry on the afternoon of Wednesday, November 12, 2014, with winds of 120 Kph gusting up to 155 Kph.

Ashobaa will be much weaker than Hudhud, but it will still be a powerful storm. One hopes that the Andhra government uses these five days to make adequate preparations so that what happened in Visakhpatnam during Hudhud does not happen again.

Bay of Bengal Update: Nov 6, 2014: Cyclone ASHOBAA Coming ON November 13 To Andhra: Present Depression Will Fizzle Out

Things have become clear now. Two computer models support that Cyclone Ashobaa will hit the Indian coast of Andhra Pradesh on November 13, 2014. The present much vaunted depression in the bay will fizzle out in 2-3 days.

It is certain now that the depression is just a trailer to the real thing. The Cyclone Ashobaa will hit the Andhra coast on November 13, The present depression will weaken into a low pressure area and dissipate. May be some showers on the Andhra-Odisha coast. 

But the cyclone, the real thing will come in another week's time. Future cyclone Ashobaa is already a low pressure area in the South China Sea. On November 10 it will cross over into the Bay of Bengal and start strengthening. It may well turn into a cyclone by the time it moves over the Andaman Islands on November 11. [Or a deep depression]'

After that it will start intensifying rapidly and move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast and hit it ferociously on November 13, 2014. As to its intensity. The GFS model says it will be a big storm. The ECMWF model largely supports it. At least a deep depression. So lots of winds and heavy precipitation is likely in Andhra Pradesh on November 13-14.

This forecast is supported by two major reliable computer models. Hence we are largely certain that that is how things will pan out.

Look out, Andhra! Cyclone Ashobaa is coming.

The situation on Nov 10. The present depression dies out lamely near the Andhra coast. Meanwhile the robust system crosses over into the Bay from Gulf of Thailand. That is cyclone Ashobaa

LATEST BAY OF BENGAL UPDATE: A BIG CYCLONE WILL HIT ANDHRA COAST NOVEMBER 13, 2014: 2 CYCLONES IN 5 DAYS?

Things clearer now. Cyclone Ashobaa will hit Andhra coast on November 13, 2014.

The present depression will weaken and touch Andhra on November 9, Sunday. The real cyclone [Ashobaa] will hit on November 13, 2014.

Andhra Pradesh is in for a lot of rains. No doubt about that. The present depression will move to the Andhra coast on November 9. Lot of rains then. if JTWC is to be believed the system will gain cyclone status. That is wind speeds of 62+ Kph. I wonder what the Indian Met calls it. A deep depression. Or a cyclone. If it calls it a cyclone then this system will be Ashobaa.

And the next cyclone will be called Komen. And that cyclone is coming soon. On November 13, 2014. Komen will be a much larger cyclone. A real humdinger. The birth of that storm has already taken place. In the South China Sea. As a low pressure area. On November 10, 2014 it will cross over into the Bay of Bengal and turn into a cyclone [Ashobaa or Komen?].

So the situation in a nutshell. If the IMD gives the present system, hovering in the Bay of Bengal, a name: Ashobaa, the November 13 cyclone will be cyclone Komen. So in that case two cyclones, one small, another bigger, will hit the Andhra coast in a span of five days.

The present conclusions we outline with some certainty. Both the GFS and ECMWF models support it.

Keep reading this site for the latest updates.

The JTWC Says Cyclone Ashobaa Has Already Formed: Will Hit Visakhapatnam In 3 Days

The forecast track of Cyclone Ashobaa according to the JTWC

The JTWC in its latest bulletin says Cyclone Ashobaa {Tropical Storm 5B] has already formed in the Bay of Bengal. It lies 1000 south of Kolkata. Its maximum winds at present are 65 Kph gusting up to 85 Kph. That qualifies it to be a cyclone. But we will have to wait for the IMD to christen it Ashobaa.

The cyclone will not be a very powerful storm. When it impacts Visakhapatnam on Saturday [November 9, 2014] winds will be about 65-85 Kph. But very heavy rainfall is expected in Andhra Pradesh then.

There is some confusion about Cyclone Ashobaa. The JTWC says it has already formed. The GFS forecast says it will form later on November 10, 2014, and hit the Andhra coast on November 12. The GFS forecast says the storm will be much bigger. We have already written about it in an earlier post. The GFS says the present depression in the Bay will fizzle out. The cyclone will come later. An intensification of a low pressure area from the South China Sea.

We will check the latest GFS forecast and confirm what the situation is.

Bay of Bengal Depression Will Turn Out Stronger: May be Cyclone ASHOBAA Is Coming To Andhra On November 12, 2014

We had spoken of the low pressure area from the Gulf of Thailand moving to the Indian coast on November 14, 2014. Latest forecasts say the system will intensify into something stronger. May be a cyclone. It is very possible that Cyclone Ashobaa is coming to the Indian coast after all. The target is the Andhra coast just south of Visakhapatnam. Landfall when? November 13, 2014.

A low pressure area is hovering around in the Bay of Bengal which is bringing heavy rains to Maynmar. This system is expected to move back weaken and bring some rains to India on the Odisha-Andhra coast on November [Saturday].

The system that will turn into cyclone Ashobaa is a low pressure that has already formed in the South China Sea. On Sunday it will cross over into the Bay of Bengal and turn into a cyclone Ashobaa. On November 10 [Monday] it will move over the Central and Southern Andaman Islands, drenching it.

It will then move NW towards the Andhra coast, intensifying all the time. It will hit the Andhra coast on the night of November 12, 2014, near Visakhapatnam.

Cyclone Ashobaa is not going to be as big and ferocious as Hudhud but it will throw out winds up to 120 Kph. The people of Andhra Pradesh have six days to prepare for approaching cyclone Ashobaa.

We shall keep a close watch on the system and giving you latest updates on its path and intensity.

There is confusion about the expected cyclone. 

The JTWC says the cyclone has already formed and will hit the Andhra coast on November 9, 2014. We will check the latest GFS forecasts and update the information. As things stand now the Indian Met Dept. too has confirmed the formation of a depression in the Bay of Bengal called 5B.

Cyclone Hudhud Update: 11/10/2014: Very Strong Winds To Lash Andhra, Odisha And Chattisgarh On Sunday

Cyclone Hudhud is now only a few hundred kilometers from Visakhapatnam. Rains are already lashing coastal districts of Odisha, Andhra and West Bengal.

Now the latest expected wind speed check. Just when the storm is near Vizag, the storm will throw up the strongest winds. 200-250 Kph. This will be early morning on Sunday (12/10/2014).  Come Sunday evening and winds of 165-200 Kph will be howling through the districts of Andhra ( Visakhapatnam, Sri Kakulam, Vijayanagaram and East Godavari), Odisha (Malkangiri, Koraput, Nabarangpur). Even Chattisgarh (Dantewada and Jagdalpur) will experience winds of 120-160 Kph.

And very heavy rain everywhere. Especially in Northern Andhra, southern Orissa and parts of Chattisgarh.

It is a misconception that the storm will weaken rapidly after making landfall. It is a powerful system that is going reach Uttar Pradesh and bring rainfall there.

Headlines Today

CYCLONE HUDHUD UPDATE: How And Where Will It Affect India: Winds, Rainfall And Wave Surge

Latest forecasts say that Cyclone Hudhud is going to make landfall near Visakhapatnam on late Saturday evening. Though the winds will slightly less than feared earlier, they will be very strong. At time of impact the winds be around 190 Kph, gusting up to 230 Kph.

Another feature of this storm is that even after moving into India the winds will not subside suddenly. Even some districts of Chattisgarh will face winds of 60-80 Kph. Not to mention that heavy downpours.

Cyclone Hudhud is going to bring heavy rainfall to many parts of India. Odisha, Seemandhra, West Bengal, Chattisgarh, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.

The worst affected (Wind, rainfall) districts will be as follows,

ANDHRA: East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram, Srikakulam, Khammam
CHATTISGARH: Sukma, Dantewada, Bijapur, Bastar, Narayanpur.
ODISHA: Malkangiri, Koraput, Gajapati, Rayagada, Kalahandi, Nabarangpur

Waves Will Cause Sea To Enter Land For Kilometers

It happened during the 1999 super cyclone. It happened during Phailin. And it will happen within the next few days courtesy Cyclone Hudhud. Sea entering the coastal areas. Hudhud is going to whip up waves up to 12 meters along the coast at time of impact. So sea water will rush in inland, especially into low lying areas along the coast. Worst affected will be Visakhapatnam.

That is why the disaster authorities are evacuating people who live close to the coast.

Rainfall Forecast Map: Cyclone Hudhud is going to bring a lot rain to India (Map shows total precipitation till 17/10/2014)

Cyclone HUDHUD UPDATE: Vital Misconceptions In Media: It is going to be Northern Andhra (Vizag) NOT Odisha

WE would like to point out some dangerous misconceptions that the media is spreading. Not only Indian media but the international media too. About Cyclone Hudhud.

FIRST: Many media sites are saying (including BBC) that cyclone Hudhud is going to strike the  Odisha coast at Gopal-at-Sea on October 12, 2014. This is wrong. The JTWC (Their forecasts are always accurate) says the storm is going to hit the Andhra coast near Visakhapatnam AND NOT Odisha. The distance between Gopal-at-Sea and Visakhapatnam is about 300 Kilometers. In disaster planning and preparedness this can make a hell of a difference.


SECOND: The BBC says winds, when the storm makes landfall, will be about 175 Kph. The JTWC in contrast (We agree with them) in its latest bulletin says the winds when Hudhud makes landfall on Saturday evening is going to be 220 Kph , GUSTING UP TO 260 kph. BBC bases its forecasts on Met Office (UK). Now the JTWC predictions are any day more trustworthy than that of the Met Office.

THIRD: Most media, including the BBC and IMD say that the cyclone is going to make landfall on Sunday (October 12, 2014) morning. The JTWC says the storm will hit the Andhra coast on Saturday evening. Just 50 hours left.

We think the confusion should be cleared at the earliest. The Andhra and Chattisgarh (It is going to see very heavy rains) governments should spring into action at the earliest (Just as the Odisha government is at maximum alert).

The danger is to Northern Andhra and Chattisgarh is as much as it is to Odisha (if not more).

People, please wake up. There are just 48 hours left.

Latest Cyclone Hudhud Update: TARGET VISAKHAPATNAM, SUNDAY MORNING, OCTOBER 12, 2014. WINDS 150 KPH PLUS

Satellite Image of Cyclone Hudhud taken at 2:30 PM (IST), Today (8/10/2014)

The target of intensifying Cyclone Hudhud has changed slightly. It was earlier the Andhra-Odisha border at Dharmavaram. Now latest forecasts say the cyclone is going to hit Visakhapatnam head-on on October 12, 2014, Sunday morning. The winds then will be a howling 150 KPH, gusting up to a massive 185 KPH.

The effects will be felt in Pondicherry in the south and Bhubaneshwar in  the north. But Vizag will face the brunt of the storm as the center of the storm is going to pass through it.

#CycloneHudhud is going to be a big storm. Just when it will be a few hundred kilometers from the coast (On Saturday, October 11, 2014) it will whip up winds of 175-225 Kph.But at the time of impact on Vizag, mercifully, the winds will have reduced to a 150-185 Kph.

The Americans would say it is a Category 2 tropical storm. Nothing to sneeze at.

Satellite image of the area around Visakhapatnam. The storm is coming.

UPDATE: LATEST FORECAST SAYS CYCLONE HUDHUD WILL HIT ANDHRA COAST

Earlier we had said that upcoming cyclone Hudhud would make landfall at Orissa on October 11, 2014.

But latest forecasts say Hudhud's target has changed. Instead of Orissa, it is going to be the Andhra coast where the cyclone will strike on October 11, 2014.

Initially the system will remain depression but intensify into a cyclone as it approaches the Andhra coast.

We guess, IMD is not going to honor the storm with a name for a few more days.

Keep in touch for the latest updates.

Here is the latest forecasted path of HUDHUD

Read More

• 
  
• Cyclone HUDHUD Might Turn Out To Be Quite A Big Storm
• #CycloneHudhud Will Rapidly Intensify in 24 Hours After It Crosses Andaman Islands
• Cyclone Hudhud Has Formed in The Bay of Bengal: Will Hit Orissa Coast on October 11, 2014
• Is Cyclone HUDHUD Coming Soon To Bay of Bengal?

Heavy Rains Likely In Orissa-Andhra Coastal Areas On May 26, 2014.

Heavy rains will lash Orissa-Andhra coast on May 26, 2014

El-Nino withstanding, the monsoons will be moving towards the Indian sub-continent soon. Satellite images show the Bay of Bengal is laden with moisture. The real action will start on the 18th of May when a large mass of rain clouds will form in the Andaman Sea off the Phuket coast.

This mass of clouds will move gradually north and drench the coastal areas of Myanmar for the next two days. EXPECT FLOODING IN COASTAL MYANMAR ON MAY 22-23.

These rain clouds will then drift towards the Indian coast. One can expect rains in West Bengal coast from May 24, 2014. But the brunt of the deluge will happen on the Orissa-Andhra coast on May 26. The areas affected will be the stretch between Visakhapatnam and Cuttack.

Cyclone NILAM Will Bring Heavy Rains To Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Orissa And West Bengal

Projected path of NILAM according to JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Satellite image of Cyclone NILAM at 1130 Hrs, today

We have said before that the present deep depression in the Bay of Bengal is going to start gaining in ferocity and turn into Cyclone NILAM. Well it has strengthened into a cyclone and it has been christened NILAM by the IMD. The cyclone will hit the Tamil Nadu coast south of Chennai tomorrow (Oct. 31, 2012) evening. Coastal areas of both Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh will face strong gale excess of 80 Kmph.

And the rains. Tamil Nadu and the entire Andhra Pradesh will receive very heavy rains tomorrow and on November 1, 2012. The rains will reach Orissa, Chattisgarh and West Bengal by the 3rd of November, 2012. Chennai is in for  severe drenching in the next two days.

Increasing wind speed

Predicted Track of Cyclone NILAM from oct. 30 (6 PM IST) to Oct. 31 (9 PM IST)

Increasing rainfall

Rainfall prediction map owing to NILAM. Oct. 31, 2012 to Nov 3, 2012

Indian Southern States In For Rains Till Nov 8, 2011

The Arabian Sea this November has been very disturbed. First it threw up a low pressure which went to the coast of Oman and turned into cyclone Keila. Now forecasts say another low pressure area is expected to build in this sea on Sunday (Nov 6, 2011). Owing to this the four southern states of India are in for rains. Especially affected will be Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and southern Andhra Pradesh. The wet spell is expected to last till Nov 8, 2011. It will dry up once the low pressure system moves away northward.

Rain Forecast Maps

 Rainfall Nov 4, 2011

 Predicted rainfall Nov 5, 2011

 Rainfall Nov 6, 2011

 Rainfall expected Nov 7, 2011. Notice the low pressure area in the Arabian Sea moving northwards

Nov 8, 2011. Kerala gets downpours. The rest of the states are dry. The menacing storm system now approaches the coasts of Oman, Gujarat and Pakistan

Bay Of Bengal Depression To Bring Heavy Rains To Tamil Nadu, Andhra November 13, 14 2011

A low pressure system is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal on November 10, 2011 west of Andaman islands. It will then gain strength and turn into a deep depression and move westward in the next three days. It will make landfall on November 13, 2011 at the coast of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rainfall is likely in these two states on November 13, 14.

Rain Forecast Map

Heavy rains likely on Nov 13, 14 in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh

Wind Speed Map Nov 13

November 13, 2011. The deep depression will make landfall. Quite strong winds