Things clearer now. Cyclone Ashobaa will hit Andhra coast on November 13, 2014.
The present depression will weaken and touch Andhra on November 9, Sunday. The real cyclone [Ashobaa] will hit on November 13, 2014.
Andhra Pradesh is in for a lot of rains. No doubt about that. The present depression will move to the Andhra coast on November 9. Lot of rains then. if JTWC is to be believed the system will gain cyclone status. That is wind speeds of 62+ Kph. I wonder what the Indian Met calls it. A deep depression. Or a cyclone. If it calls it a cyclone then this system will be Ashobaa.
And the next cyclone will be called Komen. And that cyclone is coming soon. On November 13, 2014. Komen will be a much larger cyclone. A real humdinger. The birth of that storm has already taken place. In the South China Sea. As a low pressure area. On November 10, 2014 it will cross over into the Bay of Bengal and turn into a cyclone [Ashobaa or Komen?].
So the situation in a nutshell. If the IMD gives the present system, hovering in the Bay of Bengal, a name: Ashobaa, the November 13 cyclone will be cyclone Komen. So in that case two cyclones, one small, another bigger, will hit the Andhra coast in a span of five days.
The present conclusions we outline with some certainty. Both the GFS and ECMWF models support it.
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