Things have become clear now. Two computer models support that Cyclone Ashobaa will hit the Indian coast of Andhra Pradesh on November 13, 2014. The present much vaunted depression in the bay will fizzle out in 2-3 days.
It is certain now that the depression is just a trailer to the real thing. The Cyclone Ashobaa will hit the Andhra coast on November 13, The present depression will weaken into a low pressure area and dissipate. May be some showers on the Andhra-Odisha coast.
But the cyclone, the real thing will come in another week's time. Future cyclone Ashobaa is already a low pressure area in the South China Sea. On November 10 it will cross over into the Bay of Bengal and start strengthening. It may well turn into a cyclone by the time it moves over the Andaman Islands on November 11. [Or a deep depression]'
After that it will start intensifying rapidly and move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast and hit it ferociously on November 13, 2014. As to its intensity. The GFS model says it will be a big storm. The ECMWF model largely supports it. At least a deep depression. So lots of winds and heavy precipitation is likely in Andhra Pradesh on November 13-14.
This forecast is supported by two major reliable computer models. Hence we are largely certain that that is how things will pan out.
Look out, Andhra! Cyclone Ashobaa is coming.
The situation on Nov 10. The present depression dies out lamely near the Andhra coast. Meanwhile the robust system crosses over into the Bay from Gulf of Thailand. That is cyclone Ashobaa
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