Rains Will Move Into Kutch By Thursday

UPDATE, JULY 25, 1600 HOURS IST

The low pressure system has moved from south Rajasthan to central Rajasthan.

The European model expected this. It believes it will weaken and swing back to south Rajasthan by tomorrow then move though Kutch.

The GFS and the Indian Met. believes it will not. It will mean rapid clearing up of weather over Gujarat by Friday-Saturday (maybe even earlier) and no rainfall at all in Sindh. Just a shower in Kutch.

In short, the two are predicting diametrically opposite things.

Who will be right? 

At stake are the reputations of the mighty ECMWF with the biggest weather supercomputers in the world on one side and the much vaunted weather analysis skills of the American NOAA on the other side.

What do you think?

,JULY 25, 2017, TUESDAY 

The low pressure area over east Rajasthan will weaken into an upper air cyclonic circulation as it begins to move towards the Kutch-Sindh border areas. It is expected to dissipate by Friday evening.

What will be it's precipitation effects?

The next 36 hours will see heavy rains in the same areas of north Gujarat that have seen incessant rainfall in the previous 3 days. Banaskantha, Mahesana, Patan, Ahmedabad, Aravalli districts.

The action will shift to Kutch by late Wednesday night. Kutch may see heavy downpours on Thursday. There will a slight respite for Kutch on Friday, but more showers likely on Saturday under the influence of the other low pressure area presently over Jharkhand right now. Yes. That system, weakened into a cyclonic circulation will reach east Rajasthan by Friday. It will bring more showers to Kutch on Saturday.

In Saurashtra, Morbi, Surendranagar districts may receive heavy falls by Friday morning. Rajkot, Jamnagar upto 3 inches of rainfall.

Weather over entire Gujarat will clear up only on Sunday.

Rajasthan will receive rains under the influence of the two systems in the coming 5-6 days. But it will not be as extreme as in Gujarat. Far from it.

Entire Sindh province in Pakistan will see some showers on July 29-30.


TOTAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN GUJARAT FROM JULY 25-AUGUST 1, 2017


TOTAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN SINDH PROVINCE, PAKISTAN, IN PERIOD JULY 25-AUGUST 1.

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Heavy Rains In Gujarat Till July 27

JULY 24, 2017, MONDAY

The low pressure area presently over south Rajasthan will still cause very heavy rainfall in north and northeast Gujarat in the next 48 hours. The districts affected will be Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Mahesana, Patan, Aravalli, Ahmedabad, Dahod, Mahisagar, Kheda, Anand.

The rains will begin to move to Kutch by Wednesday afternoon and may continue into Thursday, July 27. The system is expected to weaken and dissipate over northern Kutch-Sindh border regions by Friday.

Other possibilities are it moves north into Rajasthan (GFS) OR it moves into the Arabian Sea via Saurashtra on Thursday. (German model). This possibility says the system will retain its strength and will move towards northern Oman.

Only the German model predicts that the system will intensify into a deep depression as it enters the Arabian Sea off Kutch-Karachi coast.

The Indian Meteorological Department seems to think the system will move north into Rajasthan. In the latest morning bulletin today it predicts decreasing rains in Gujarat from Tuesday evening and heavy rains in Rajasthan.

As to the other low pressure system over India, in West Bengal..... It will move through Bihar, Jharkhand, northern Chattisgarh onto Madhya Pradesh in the coming days. It is at present expected to dissipate over northwest Madhya Pradesh by July 28.

West Bengal, Jharkhand, parts of Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh will receive the most precipitation from this system.


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Low Pressure To Affect Gujarat Till July 29?

JULY 23, 2017, SUNDAY

There is a strong possibility that the current low pressure system over southeast Rajasthan is not going to dissipate in the next 2-3 days as widely expected but will briefly intensify and move over Kutch region of Gujarat again by Wednesday.

The Indian Meteorological Department believes presently that the system will affect north Gujarat for another 2-3 days and then the rainfall in decreasing amounts will shift to Rajasthan.

There is another possibility. The low pressure area instead of moving northeasterly and dissipating over northeast Rajasthan, INTENSIFIES BRIEFLY AND COMES BACK TO GUJARAT, OVER KUTCH BY WEDNESDAY. Then it dissipates by Thursday/Friday when over Kutch.

If that happens then what?

Heavy rains continue in northeast Gujarat till Wednesday and then come back to crisis spots Banaskantha, Kutch, Morbi, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Surendranagar  districts. Heavy rains expected in these areas on Wednesday, July 26 and Thursday, July 29.

Ahmedabad may receive almost 4 inches of rain daily Sunday to Tuesday, possibly Wednesday. Worst affected will be Ahmedabad, Patan, Banaskantha, possibly northern parts of Surendranagar district.

Sindh will not benefit much even if this possibility does become reality.

Meanwhile the Indian Meteorological Department has issued the highest red alert rainfall warning for entire Gujarat state on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.


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Low Pressure System Forming Over West Bengal

JULY 23, 2017, SUNDAY 

The Bay of Bengal is in ferment. A low pressure area will crystallise over West Bengal by Sunday evening. That is today evening.

Very heavy rainfall will occur in Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha in the next 36 hours. The system will move through Jharkhand, northern chatt, northern Madhya Pradesh onto northern Rajasthan and dissipate by Thursday-Friday.

Most of heavy precipitation will occur in West Bengal, Jharkhand, northern Madhya Pradesh by Thursday.




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Flooding Rains Expected In North Gujarat Till Monday Eve

UPDATE, JULY 22, 2:00 PM IST 

FORECAST FLASH.......

The low pressure system over Madhya Pradesh has begun to towards north Gujarat. It will reach by Saturday late night and will intensify. It will remain over north Gujarat-south Rajasthan border till Tuesday.

As the system is intensifying, THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VERY VIGOROUS OVER GUJARAT IN NEXT 48-72.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN ISOLATED AREAS OF THE STATE. HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINS IN OTHER AREAS.

THE SITUATION WILL REMAIN GRAVE TILL MONDAY.........SEVERE FLOODING IS A REAL POSSIBILITY......

In next 24 hours, till Sunday evening, 10 inches of rainfall expected in Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar city, 12 inches in Himmatnagar, 8 inches in Palanpur.

Heaviest rain expected in Sabarkantha, Mahesana, Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad, Kheda, Surendranagar districts.

JULY 22, 2017, SATURDAY 

Even as the low pressure area moves over north Gujarat-South Rajasthan, very heavy rainfall is expected in parts of the state in the next 72 hours.

Though all the regions of the state will receive rains in lesser or more amounts, the deluge is expected in north Gujarat and parts of Saurashtra till July 24 evening.

The following districts will receive more than 10 inches of rainfall.....

SABARKANTHA, BANASKANTHA, PATAN, MAHESANA, ARAVALLI, GANDHINAGAR, AHMEDABAD, ANAND, PARTS OF SURENDRANAGAR.

The cyclonic circulation will move over to Rajasthan on Monday but it's southwest quadrant having all the rain clouds, so rainfall will continue in Gujarat till July 27 intermittently.

In Rajasthan, the southern parts will receive very heavy rains in the coming 96 hours. Rains will also spill over to parts of Sindh province of Pakistan by Monday. Dabhri, Thatta, Mirpurkhas, Hyderabad may receive heavy showers in the coming days.


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