We are talking of flooding rains here. And they will occur between June 11-14 in north Konkan and Mumbai. So monsoon will arrive in the mega city with a Big Bang after all.
And somewhat worrying is the day and night assault by incessant rains in this region for 72 hours. Recipe for floods. This will happen because of a cyclonic circulation that is going to hover around the Mumbai coast briefly for a couple of days.
The Arabian Sea monsoon stream is going to wake up on June 10-11 with increasing precipitation off the Goa coast. This wave will slowly shift north to Konkan, Mumbai and then bang! A deluge.
There will be a respite for Mumbai during June 14-16. From June 17 more heavy rains likely in the city as a fresh monsoon rain system comes up. Gujarat will be left holding an empty bag during the Mumbai deluge. The state may expect monsoon to arrive, perhaps after June 17.
Meanwhile what of the eastern front? The Bay of Bengal. Top Indian meteorologists have pinned their hopes on the upcoming low pressure system. That it would push monsoon into many states of eastern and central India. I fear this system may turn out to be a dud. A very weak little thing that will be able to push rains only upto north Bengal and Bihar before fizzling out.
Another Bay of Bengal low is expected to form on June 16-17. One hopes it turns out stronger.
Meanwhile, the Arabian Sea monsoon too is expected to rejuvenate itself on June 16.
One hopes for the best.
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