JULY 14, 2016
The unpredictability of monsoons was glaringly evident once again as all forecast models had predicted that the upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh-eastern Rajasthan would move westerly or southwesterly and drench the rain starved Saurashtra, Kutch and Sindh.
But instead the system moved away into Rajasthan-Madhya Pradesh leaving Gujarat and Sindh mostly high and dry.
The focus of this rainy season now shifts to northern India. Good, at times, flooding precipitation is expected in Chattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, eastern and northern Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Uttarakhand till July 18.
After that spell peters out a fresh system will drench Odisha and West Bengal on July 19-20, 2016. By July 22 a low pressure area may form off the Andhra Pradesh coast which will bring heavy rains to Andhra Pradesh and Telangana till July 24.
Though the monsoon rains have been on the whole satisfactory, it is proving most climate model forecasts wrong. Most of these, especially the Canadian CANSIPS model and the American NMME model had predicted good rains in Gujarat and poor rains in eastern India in July.
That is not happening. Gujarat has barely received 15% of the season's rainfall. And half of July is gone.
One expects August, September and even October (if forecast models are to be believed) will turn out better for rain starved Gujarat and Pakistan. And prove the climate forecast models right.
Meanwhile the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says there will be a decrease in monsoon activity in South Asia till the end of July.
Strangely a low pressure area has formed in the Southern Indian Ocean (called 90S by NOAA) which which will move towards Mauritius/Madagascar in the coming days. It may even intensify into a tropical storm. After a week another similar storm system is likely to develop. Very strange as storms/cyclones occur in the Southern Indian Ocean during December-March.
GFS forecast shows total accumulated rainfall (in inches) till July 30, 2016. There are to be good rains everywhere in India except in Saurashtra, Kutch, northern Karnataka, western Rajasthan and southern Tamil Nadu.
10 comments:
Sir saurashtra ma kyare varshad aavse
Normal varshad aave che
plz. Help. ..
Good rains are expected in Saurashtra-Kutch in August-October.
Thanks you sir July ma varsad nay aave k su
Any chance of rain in karachi or lower sindh. Tharparker or badin? Please update.
Talking of Kutch-Saurashtra and Sindh, though there might be occasional showers no major rain system is expected in these regions in the next 10 days. But one must be patient. As La Niña picks up good rains will occur in August, September and October.
Sir some parts of balochistan r receiving more rain compare to sind wether these rains r due to western disturbance or from South West moon soon
God is great.
We can't predict it's actions. Even one day ahead forecast is failed.
Sir Why do not post on Facebook
Sir Hal ma somachu dhari ne ketla % varsad padyo che.
Any Think From Oman Please!
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