Tropical Storm To Hit Saurashtra Friday (June 10, 2011) Noon.

The present low pressure area in the Arabian Sea is likely to move north towards the Saurashtra coast and turn into a deep depression by the time it touches Diu at the southern tip of the peninsula. It will continue as a depression during the following two days as it moves along the coastal areas. By Sunday (June 12, 2011) it will  intensify rapidly into a cyclone. It will be leaving Gujarat waters by then. I guess it will be christened as "Keila" then. It will skim coastal Pakistan till Tuesday (June 14, 2011) when it will make landfall at Gwadar, near the Pakistan-southern Iran border. It will dissipate soon after.


WHAT THE JTWC SAYS (LATEST)

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 18.7N 69.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. 
LATEST ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL STORM FORECAST
The low pressure presently standing stationary west of Mumbai will slowly start moving north. By the time it touches the Saurashtra (India) coast Friday (June 10, 2011) morning it will have turned into a deep depression.
It will move along the Saurashtra coast for the next two days. By Sunday (June 12, 2011) when it leaves Indian waters near Dwarka, it will intensify rapidly into a cyclone.
This cyclone, which will be named "Keila", will skim along the Pakistani coast and only make landfall at Gwadar in Balochistan om June 14, Tuesday. After which it will dissipate on the Balochistan-southern Iran border.
All the coastal towns in India; Diu, Verval, Porbandar, Dwarka and Karachi in Pakistan will see high speed winds. 80+Kmph. 
Fishermen in both Gujarat and Sindh are warned not to venture into the sea from Friday (June 10, 2011) to Tuesday (June 14, 2011). The storm will mostly be moving in the sea so the winds there will be much more than the land areas. Wind speeds in the seas near the Gujarat and Sindh coast will be very high. 150+ Kmph.
PREDICTED PATH OF THE STORM

 Friday noon. Tropical depression touches the Saurashtra coast

 Saturday (June 11, 2011) morning. Depression weakens a little and moves along the coast

 Sunday (June 12, 2011) late night. Keila gains strength rapidly

 Tuesday (June 14, 2011) noon. Keila hits Gwadar

Wednesday night (June 15, 2011) The end of Keila.