Let me tell you how cyclones are born. They start off as a low pressure area. Then they get stronger and develop in a depression. Then intensify into a deep depression. If it gains further strength, a cyclone is born. It are also called a hurricane, typhoon or a severe tropical storm.
Keila has taken birth. It is a low pressure area now. It lies now at 18.7N 69.8E . It is 180 miles west of Mumbai. She is expected to grow bigger and stronger into a depression and start moving north towards the Saurashtra coast. By the time it reaches Diu (Friday June 10 morning) on the southern tip of the Saurashtra peninsula it will have turned into a cyclone. Albeit a small cyclone. Windspeeds of 80 Kmph. Keila will then move along the Saurashtra coast till Saturday (June 11, 2011) evening. It is when it leaves Saurashtra (Saturday morning) that the storm will rapidly gather strength. Turn bigger with wind speeds of 120+ Kmph. Keila's periphery will touch Karachi and she will move into Baluchistan (Gwadar) Tuesday June 14 morning. Gwadar will face the most fury of the cyclone.
Keila has taken birth. It is a low pressure area now. It lies now at 18.7N 69.8E . It is 180 miles west of Mumbai. She is expected to grow bigger and stronger into a depression and start moving north towards the Saurashtra coast. By the time it reaches Diu (Friday June 10 morning) on the southern tip of the Saurashtra peninsula it will have turned into a cyclone. Albeit a small cyclone. Windspeeds of 80 Kmph. Keila will then move along the Saurashtra coast till Saturday (June 11, 2011) evening. It is when it leaves Saurashtra (Saturday morning) that the storm will rapidly gather strength. Turn bigger with wind speeds of 120+ Kmph. Keila's periphery will touch Karachi and she will move into Baluchistan (Gwadar) Tuesday June 14 morning. Gwadar will face the most fury of the cyclone.
June 9, 2011 Thursday 06.15 AM (GMT,UTC)
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 69.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 69.8E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.DUE TO DECREASING PRESSURES, PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL STORM LATEST FORECAST
- Keila (If I may call the lady so now) is going to intensify today and start moving north. It will touch the Saurashtra coast by Friday (June 10, 2011) morning. She will weaken a little as she meets Saurashtra.
- She will move along the Saurashtra coast till Sunday (June 12, 2011) morning. Then as leaves Indian waters it will rapidly gain strength and turn into a big cyclone. Keila's edges will touch Karachi (Deadly touch!).
- Keila will hit Baluchistan, especially Gwadar, Tuesday, June 14, 2011, morning. And hit it really hard. Wind speeds in excess of 150+ Kmph.
- It will dissipate by Wednesday (June 15, 2011) evening over southern Iran
- In India the Saurashtra towns of Diu, Veraval, Porbandar, Dwarka will see the most of Keila. Dwarka especially will be severely hit. All of Saurashtra - Kutch will have winds of 70-80 Kmph.
- Saurashtra - Kutch will receive continuous rains (heavy falls) till Monday. Especially the coastal areas.
- Southern Sind and Baluchistan will get lots of rain from Sunday (June 12, 2011) to Wednesday (June 15, 2011) evening. By rain I mean downpour. We are talking of 5, 10, 15 inches here. Lots of rain.
Lots of rain in the next one week in the coastal areas of Gujarat, Sind, and Balochistan
THE LATEST PREDICTED PATH OF KEILA
FRIDAY (JUNE10, 2011) KEILA SAYS HELLO TO SAURASHTRA. ESPECIALLY DIU.
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENED KEILA POTTERS AROUND THE SAURASHTRA COAST
SUNDAY MORNING. JUNE 12, 2011. KEILA GATHERS STRENGTH AS SHE LEAVES THE GUJARAT COAST
MONDAY (JUNE 13, 2011) EVENING (PAKISTAN TIME) KEILA ABOUT TO ENTER PAKISTAN
TUESDAY EVENING. KEILA MAKES LANDFALL INTO BALOCHISTAN
WEDNESDAY (JUNE 15, 2011) MORNING. END OF THE STORM IN SOUTHERN IRAN
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