MAY 11, 2017, THURSDAY
Just a few weeks ago the premier European weather and climate forecasting agency ECMWF had painted a gloomy picture for monsoon rains in India in 2017. In its latest April based data, it has changed its tune. It now predicts a normal monsoon this year.
The Indian Meteorological Department too has said in its latest bulletin something similar. A normal monsoon in 2017.
Coming back to the trusted ECMWF model, a look at the seasonal precipitation forecast map reveals no brown color during June-September. By brown I mean lower than normal rainfall. It is all white (normal rain) or different shades of green (excess, above average rainfall).
An interesting point of this forecast is that it predicts massive above average rainfall in the Indian west coast, mainly Konkan, Goa and Karnataka. An excess of an astonishing 60-70% above normal. That is almost twice the average yearly. Another region which is going to be very wet this year is Odisha and Chattisgarh with excess rains in all the four months.
The ECMWF supports the CFS model prediction of an overactive Arabian Sea in June-July. Very heavy flooding rains in coastal Karnataka, Goa. Mumbai and parts of Gujarat, Odisha, Andhra too will receive good rains.
The Arabian Sea will continue pummelling the Indian west coast. Meanwhile the Bay of Bengal too will into active mode with heavy rains in Odisha, Andhra and Telangana.
In its final burst the monsoon will drench Karnataka and parts of Odisha, Chattisgarh.
In October ordinary rains through out the country. But look at the southwest Arabian Sea in October! Something brewing out there!
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