European Agency Says Good 2017 Monsoon For India

MAY 11, 2017, THURSDAY

Just a few weeks ago the premier European weather and climate forecasting agency ECMWF had painted a gloomy picture for monsoon rains in India in 2017. In its latest April based data, it has changed its tune. It now predicts a normal monsoon  this year. 

The Indian Meteorological Department too has said in its latest bulletin something similar. A normal monsoon in 2017.

Coming back to the trusted ECMWF model, a look at the seasonal precipitation forecast map reveals no brown color during June-September. By brown I mean lower than normal rainfall. It is all white (normal rain) or different shades of green (excess, above average rainfall).

An interesting point of this forecast is that it predicts massive above average rainfall in the Indian west coast, mainly Konkan, Goa and Karnataka. An excess of an astonishing 60-70% above normal. That is almost twice the average yearly. Another region which is going to be very wet this year is Odisha and Chattisgarh with excess rains in all the four months.

The ECMWF supports the CFS model prediction of an overactive Arabian Sea in June-July. Very heavy flooding rains in coastal Karnataka, Goa. Mumbai and parts of Gujarat, Odisha, Andhra too will receive good rains.

The Arabian Sea will continue pummelling the Indian west coast. Meanwhile the Bay of Bengal too will into active mode with heavy rains in Odisha, Andhra and Telangana.

In its final burst the monsoon will drench Karnataka and parts of Odisha, Chattisgarh.

In October ordinary rains through out the country. But look at the southwest Arabian Sea in October! Something brewing out there!

Maharashtra, Telangana Wettest This Monsoon?

APRIL 30, 2017

This year the monsoon gods are going to smile broadly at Maharashtra and Telangana if latest data from the CFS (Coupled Forecast System) model is to be believed.

Looking at rainfall anamoly maps for the four monsoon months we see these two states will receive above average precipitation in each of them. 2-4 inches in excess of the monthly average.

The green colour in the maps denotes excess, above average rainfall. The brown color means deficient rainfall.

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In June the Arabian Sea is going to hit the turbo mode, churning out many rain systems. At least one of them is going to hit Oman. Good rains in coastal Pakistan, south Gujarat, Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh, northern Karnataka, Telangana, Kerala, Bihar and Jharkhand.

In July good rains in coastal Saurashtra, south Gujarat, Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, Telangana, southern Chattisgarh, eastern Uttar Pradesh and parts of Odisha and Bengal. The North Eastern states will face a dry spell in July. As will Karnataka, Kerala and Rayalseema.

In August the good times continue in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chattisgarh. Bengal and Bihar will receive good rains. Below average rains I am afraid in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Rayalseema.

September will see both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal turning active throwing out low pressure systems. As a result we will see good precipitation in almost entire India except for Rajasthan and northern India. Seeing the likelihood of good rains in September we may say the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will nullify any impact of a weak El Niño.

La Niña to kick in from July, monsoon may shed lethargy

JUNE 22, 2016

After all the hullabaloo about a bumper 2016 monsoon, June has been a disappointment. Speaking mildly. Most Mumbaikars learnt that monsoon had arrived in the city from IMD news reports in the media. So low key has been the premiere this year.

The story is the same throughout India. No flooding incessant rains. No waterlogged metros. Nothing. It leaves a sinking feeling in the heart. 

But despair not........

All right. All right. We have said this a couple of times before. But so constipated has been the monsoon that the expected revival either fizzles out or does not occur at all.

Perhaps El Niño's ghost still lurks around.

But by end June things will look up. La Niña will arrive in style and unleash the rain gods from July 1, 2016. The Bay of Bengal will spawn a low pressure area off the Andhra Pradesh coast on June 30. Even the Arabian Sea will join the party with heavy precipitation in coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan by then. It remains to be seen if the rain system reaches Mumbai or goes off tangentially into the sea.

Our present prediction is from July 1, monsoon will start using its heavy artillery.

JUNE 23 UPDATE

Later data from forecast models support the rejuvenation of the monsoons by June end. In fact it might happen earlier. On June 27, the Arabian Sea will wake from its slumber and spawn a low pressure area in the northern part. It will not intensify into a depression or cyclone but it will giving a boost to rainfall/thunderstorm activity in the subcontinent.

Flooding rains from June 28 in coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, coastal Karnataka, Goa, Konkan and perhaps even Mumbai.

Things are going to really rock by June end.

Arabian Sea Depression: Heavy Rains In Mumbai, Gujarat On June 10, 2016

JUNE 1, 2016

A deep depression is likely to form in the Arabian Sea around June 9, 2016, which will bring a deluge to coastal Maharashtra (including Mumbai) and Gujarat.

Monsoon will become very active on the Arabian Sea coast of India from June 6. Increased rainfall will be seen in Karnataka and southern Maharashtra from June 6.

Mumbai will receive very heavy rains on June 8-9.

This will culminate in the formation of a tropical depression on June 9 off the Mumbai coast south of Saurashtra.

This system is expected to move into Saurashtra and Kutch regions bringing flooding rains till June 12-13. Coastal Sindh too might receive considerable precipitation.

The system may then swing back into the Arabian Sea, weaken and drift towards Oman. Oman may receive isolated showers by June 16.

The vigorous monsoon activity in the coming fortnight may bring phenomenal amounts of rain on India 's west coast. The forecast map indicates these areas will get accumulated rains of 25 inches in the coming 15 days.

Weather Outlook For India, South Asia, Middle East In Early June 2016

I

MAY 31, 2016

The picture remains hazy with little agreement amongst major NWP models. But from what we gathered, two areas will be of interest in India, concerning monsoons. One is western India, Mumbai, Arabian Sea coastal areas and Gujarat. The second is Andhra Pradesh.

In both these regions there is a possibility of vigorous monsoon activity in early June.

WESTERN INDIA

The GFS still persists with an Arabian Sea trough bringing heavy precipitation to western India around June 10-13, 2016. Heavy pre-monsoon showers may occur in Mumbai on June 5-6. Drought hit Vidarbha will receive heavy rains on June 8-9.

Coastal Karnataka will get drenched on June 4 because of a rain-bearing trough in the Arabian Sea.

The monsoon onset in Mumbai will occur on June 12, 2016 with flooding rains. All because of the Arabian Sea trough which will form in a few days.

After Mumbai, the monsoons will hit Gujarat on June 14.

ANDHRA PRADESH 

The European model foresees an upper air cyclonic circulation over the Andhra coast near Visakhapatnam on June 6-7. It will bring good rains to Andhra Pradesh and Telangana from June 7 onwards. 

It might so happen that we might be staring at a depression on the Andhra Pradesh coast on June 7. Not a mere cyclonic circulation, but even may be tropical cyclone KYANT. Too early to say now.

We continuously analyse weather charts and will keep you informed of developments.

SOUTH CHINA SEA

Another interesting possible development could be the first typhoon in the Western Pacific Ocean in 2016. There is a strong likelihood of typhoon NEPARTAK forming in the South China Sea around June 10. It could strongly affect Taiwan and eastern coast of Japan.

Rainfall Forecast Till May 30, 2016, In South Asia

MAY 29, 2016

Below is the rainfall forecast map for India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Oman. It is valid till May 30, 2016, 1800 GMT. In other words, where will it rain in the next 48 hours?

Bangladesh will receive the heaviest falls. More than 5 inches in some parts. So will isolated parts in Sri Lanka.

Indian north eastern states too will record 1-2 inches. Especially in some parts of Assam and Tripura. More than 1 inch expected in Kerala. Karnataka and Telangana too will receive showers. 

Isolated showers in rest of the country except the northwest of India.