Rains Coming To Northern Oman?

JUNE 24, 2017, SATURDAY 

There is a good chance of rains arriving in northern Oman on June 30, 2017. The reason? A cyclonic circulation that is expected to form off the Saurashtra coast in India in the next 48-72 hours. Though there is also the possibility of the system forming around June 30, not June 27-28.

The track of the expected rainmaker system remains unclear at present. The European model ECMWF predicts it will move onto Sindh in southern Pakistan by June 30 bringing flooding rains to coastal areas of the country.

Other equally reliable models foretell that it will weaken a little and drift west towards northern Oman. If this happens expect showers to start in the arid country from June 30. There might be showers in Muscat too if the system sustains itself.

American agency Climate Prediction Center's rainfall forecast June 24-30.

It expects monsoon to cover most of India by July 7. Interestingly it also predicts very heavy rainfall in dry Kutch region in Gujarat and parts of Rajasthan in early July.

Weather Outlook For India, South Asia, Middle East In Early June 2016

I

MAY 31, 2016

The picture remains hazy with little agreement amongst major NWP models. But from what we gathered, two areas will be of interest in India, concerning monsoons. One is western India, Mumbai, Arabian Sea coastal areas and Gujarat. The second is Andhra Pradesh.

In both these regions there is a possibility of vigorous monsoon activity in early June.

WESTERN INDIA

The GFS still persists with an Arabian Sea trough bringing heavy precipitation to western India around June 10-13, 2016. Heavy pre-monsoon showers may occur in Mumbai on June 5-6. Drought hit Vidarbha will receive heavy rains on June 8-9.

Coastal Karnataka will get drenched on June 4 because of a rain-bearing trough in the Arabian Sea.

The monsoon onset in Mumbai will occur on June 12, 2016 with flooding rains. All because of the Arabian Sea trough which will form in a few days.

After Mumbai, the monsoons will hit Gujarat on June 14.

ANDHRA PRADESH 

The European model foresees an upper air cyclonic circulation over the Andhra coast near Visakhapatnam on June 6-7. It will bring good rains to Andhra Pradesh and Telangana from June 7 onwards. 

It might so happen that we might be staring at a depression on the Andhra Pradesh coast on June 7. Not a mere cyclonic circulation, but even may be tropical cyclone KYANT. Too early to say now.

We continuously analyse weather charts and will keep you informed of developments.

SOUTH CHINA SEA

Another interesting possible development could be the first typhoon in the Western Pacific Ocean in 2016. There is a strong likelihood of typhoon NEPARTAK forming in the South China Sea around June 10. It could strongly affect Taiwan and eastern coast of Japan.