Arabian Sea Depression: Heavy Rains In Mumbai, Gujarat On June 10, 2016

JUNE 1, 2016

A deep depression is likely to form in the Arabian Sea around June 9, 2016, which will bring a deluge to coastal Maharashtra (including Mumbai) and Gujarat.

Monsoon will become very active on the Arabian Sea coast of India from June 6. Increased rainfall will be seen in Karnataka and southern Maharashtra from June 6.

Mumbai will receive very heavy rains on June 8-9.

This will culminate in the formation of a tropical depression on June 9 off the Mumbai coast south of Saurashtra.

This system is expected to move into Saurashtra and Kutch regions bringing flooding rains till June 12-13. Coastal Sindh too might receive considerable precipitation.

The system may then swing back into the Arabian Sea, weaken and drift towards Oman. Oman may receive isolated showers by June 16.

The vigorous monsoon activity in the coming fortnight may bring phenomenal amounts of rain on India 's west coast. The forecast map indicates these areas will get accumulated rains of 25 inches in the coming 15 days.

Weather Outlook For India, South Asia, Middle East In Early June 2016

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MAY 31, 2016

The picture remains hazy with little agreement amongst major NWP models. But from what we gathered, two areas will be of interest in India, concerning monsoons. One is western India, Mumbai, Arabian Sea coastal areas and Gujarat. The second is Andhra Pradesh.

In both these regions there is a possibility of vigorous monsoon activity in early June.

WESTERN INDIA

The GFS still persists with an Arabian Sea trough bringing heavy precipitation to western India around June 10-13, 2016. Heavy pre-monsoon showers may occur in Mumbai on June 5-6. Drought hit Vidarbha will receive heavy rains on June 8-9.

Coastal Karnataka will get drenched on June 4 because of a rain-bearing trough in the Arabian Sea.

The monsoon onset in Mumbai will occur on June 12, 2016 with flooding rains. All because of the Arabian Sea trough which will form in a few days.

After Mumbai, the monsoons will hit Gujarat on June 14.

ANDHRA PRADESH 

The European model foresees an upper air cyclonic circulation over the Andhra coast near Visakhapatnam on June 6-7. It will bring good rains to Andhra Pradesh and Telangana from June 7 onwards. 

It might so happen that we might be staring at a depression on the Andhra Pradesh coast on June 7. Not a mere cyclonic circulation, but even may be tropical cyclone KYANT. Too early to say now.

We continuously analyse weather charts and will keep you informed of developments.

SOUTH CHINA SEA

Another interesting possible development could be the first typhoon in the Western Pacific Ocean in 2016. There is a strong likelihood of typhoon NEPARTAK forming in the South China Sea around June 10. It could strongly affect Taiwan and eastern coast of Japan.

Heavy Rains Possible In Mumbai, Gujarat On June 10, 2016

MAY 29, 2016

XTREME WEATHER POSSIBILITY 

It is quite possible that heavy to very heavy rains may lash Mumbai and parts of Gujarat around June 10-12, 2016. Forecast models hint at flooding rains something in the range of 5-6 inches.

This will be possible because of increasing stormy monsoon activity in the West Indian Ocean near the Somalia coast which all numerical weather prediction models say will happen in early June.

This stormy system will throw out  a trough that will gradually migrate to the Indian west coast by June 10.

It is possible the circulation may linger over the Mumbai-Gujarat area for 4-5 days hence flooding could occur in many places.

There are still more than 10 days to go, but it is a real possibility. We shall track the forecasts and keep you updated. At the earliest.

Monsoon To Hit Mumbai On June 10, 2016