Bay Of Bengal 'Low' To Push Monsoon Into Eastern, Central India

JUNE 6, 2017, TUESDAY

The expected Bay of Bengal low pressure area is going to act as an engine that will pull monsoon along with it into eastern and central India by June 15, 2015. In fact, this 'low' will be more of a depression which will dump huge amounts of rain wherever it goes.

This 'low' will start off as an innocuous cyclonic circulation off the Andhra coast on June 9. It will move close to the Visakhapatnam coast and move along the coastline, intensifying all the time. On June 12 it will move into Gangetic West Bengal, then Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh. Then jerk off southward into north-western Madhya Pradesh by June 15.

So this little guy is going to travel a long way in a week and push monsoon into the Indian heartland! Hardworking fellow!

In contrast the Arabian Sea will be lazier. No big low pressure systems. But the rains will reach Goa by June 9. After that the next target will be Konkan. Lots of rain in the belt from June 10.

Things will warm up with an upper air cyclonic circulation forming off the Saurashtra coast on June 10-11. This will be small compared to the much stronger Bay of Bengal 'low' hovering near the Bengal-Odisha coast then.

But it will perk things up. It may push rains into Mumbai by June 12 and may be into parts of Saurashtra, South Gujarat by June 13. It is difficult to say now for sure. It all depends on how the circulation moves. Since it is going to rain heavily and continuously in Konkan, Mumbai after June 10-11 an earlier declaration of monsoon in the mega city is possible.

Early Arabian Sea Monsoon Rains May Drift To Oman

MAY 9, 2017, TUESDAY

Hopes of an early arrival of southwest monsoon this year may be belied. Latest forecast by the sensitive CFS model says it will hit Kerala in early June. Earlier expectations that it may come by May end are dissipating as atmospheric conditions have changed in the last fortnight.

But some predictions remain. The Arabian Sea will go into turbo mode as soon as June sets in. But the scene of action, the ground zero so to speak has changed from the coast near Kerala to south western part of the sea, nearer to Oman.

As May ends the beginning of June will see that portion of the sea turn tumultuous. It will churn out many clusters of powerful thunderstorms powered by the approaching monsoon. From that area of turmoil will emerge one or two tropical depressions/cyclones. These are likely to move to either Oman or Balochistan.

Since this initial burst of monsoon energy will be diverted towards Oman by June 10-12, 2017, the onset of rains on Indian west coast will be delayed. Monsoon may reach Mumbai by June 15-20. The onset over Gujarat may have to wait till June 25.

Though there will be very heavy precipitation in Kerala and Karnataka in early June.

We have wait and see if the expected Arabian Sea storm in early June does go to Oman, or will it change course and steer to Sindh/Gujarat.

It will all start here after May 23-24, 2017. The monsoon will slowly build up off the Somalia coast in the form of violent thunderstorms and torrential downpour in the sea. This will slowly move towards the Indian coast in the next 10 days after that, culminating in a Arabian Sea storm around June 10.

Unlike in 2016, the Bay of Bengal stream of monsoon will come to life almost 10 days after the Arabian Sea springs into action, after June 10, 2017.

July 31: Indian Monsoon 2016 Forecast Update

JULY 31, 2016

The Bay of Bengal low pressure area is being born off Bangladesh-Myanmar coast. It will intensify into a depression and cross Odisha coast on August 3. It will move generally west reaching Gujarat on August 9-10. It will bring heavy rainfall to Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat as it moves through these states.

A upper air cyclonic circulation will move over Gujarat August 3-6. It will bring heavy precipitation in the entire state and possibly Sindh.

Heavy rains are expected in Telangana, Konkan, Goa, western Madhya Pradesh and south Gujarat in next 48 hours.

Heavy rains in South Gujarat-August 1, Mumbai, South Gujarat-August 2, Central, North Gujarat-August 3, Kutch, Saurashtra, Karachi-August 3-4.

July 30, 2016, Saturday, Monsoon Forecast Update

A Bay of Bengal depression will form off Andhra Pradesh coast on August 5, 2016. This system will move through Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and reach Gujarat on August 9-10, 2016. Very heavy rains possible in these areas.

Very heavy rains likely over south-east Rajasthan, Udaipur region, as the cyclonic circulation will intensify over the state till August 1. 

The cyclonic circulation will then shift to Gujarat by August 3. Very heavy rains possible in western Madhya Pradesh, (August 1-2), central Gujarat (August 2-3), Saurashtra-Kutch(August 3-4), Sindh (August 3-4).

Heavy rains will continue in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand till July 31.

Andhra Low Pressure System Will Boost Rains In Western India From July 24

JULY 18, 2016

As predicted monsoon has brought flooding rains to northern India in the last few days. Another smaller system will bring good precipitation to Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal on July 20-21.

But the forthcoming low pressure area which will develop off the Andhra Pradesh coast on July 23, 2016 is the one to watch for. Though the low will weaken into an upper air cyclonic circulation as it moves inland, it will increase rainfall activity dramatically off the Indian west coast from July 24. It will bring good rains to Andhra, Rayalseema and Telangana.

Good rains are expected in Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, Mumbai and western India, including Gujarat.

How much precipitation actually occurs remains to be seen. Wait for updates.

JULY 19, 2016 UPDATE

Though the cyclonic circulation that will form over Andhra coast will cross over to northern Karnataka, Goa coast on July 24 it will move away west into the Arabian Sea. Under its influence heavy rains may occur in Konkan, Goa, Mumbai on July 24 and in Gujarat on July 25.

There is disagreement as to course of the upcoming Bay of Bengal cyclonic circulation. The GFS model believes it will bring rains to Andhra, Telangana, eastern Maharashtra, western Madhya and Rajasthan. It thinks Gujarat will be left high and dry.

LATEST ON LA NIÑA 

Not very good news for South Asia, I am afraid. Latest prediction by CPC, the US climate agency, says  at present conditions are ENSO neutral. That is La Niña has not developed yet. The chances of ENSO neutral conditions remains more than the possibility of La Niña developing till November 2016. In short the chances of La Niña this monsoon are receding.

The forecast map below shows that only in September-October are the chances of La Niña more than the chances of El Niño neutral conditions. If La Niña does develop in September-October we could see good rains in the dying  stages of monsoon 2016 in South Asia.

Disappointment For Gujarat, Sindh As Heavy Rains Stay Away

JULY 14, 2016

The unpredictability of monsoons was glaringly evident once again as all forecast models had predicted that the upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh-eastern Rajasthan would move westerly or southwesterly and drench the rain starved Saurashtra, Kutch and Sindh.

But instead the system moved away into Rajasthan-Madhya Pradesh leaving Gujarat and Sindh mostly high and dry.

The focus of this rainy season now shifts to northern India. Good, at times, flooding precipitation is expected in Chattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, eastern and northern Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Uttarakhand till July 18.

Kutch still waits for rains

Image credit: Scroll.in

After that spell peters out a fresh system will drench Odisha and West Bengal on July 19-20, 2016. By July 22 a low pressure area may form off the Andhra Pradesh coast which will bring heavy rains to Andhra Pradesh and Telangana till July 24.

Though the monsoon rains have been on the whole satisfactory, it is proving most climate model forecasts wrong. Most of these, especially the Canadian CANSIPS model and the American NMME model had predicted good rains in Gujarat and poor rains in eastern India in July. 

That is not happening. Gujarat has barely received 15% of the season's rainfall. And half of July is gone.

One expects August, September and even October (if forecast models are to be believed) will turn out better for rain starved Gujarat and Pakistan. And prove the climate forecast models right.

Meanwhile the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says there will be a decrease  in monsoon activity in South Asia till the end of July.

Strangely a low pressure area has formed in the Southern Indian Ocean (called 90S by NOAA) which which will move towards Mauritius/Madagascar in the coming days. It may even intensify into a tropical storm. After a week another similar storm system is likely to develop. Very strange as storms/cyclones occur in the Southern Indian Ocean during December-March.

GFS forecast shows total accumulated rainfall (in inches) till July 30, 2016. There are to be good rains everywhere in India except in Saurashtra, Kutch, northern Karnataka, western Rajasthan and southern Tamil Nadu.

Major monsoon revival on June 23-24, 2016

JUNE 18, 2016

A major rejuvenation of the monsoon in India will occur only on June 23-24. That is when it will push into Mumbai properly. Though heavy showers will occur in Konkan in the next 48 hours, they will not reach Mumbai before June 24.

Showers are likely in south Gujarat and Saurashtra on June 20 but heavy rains will elude the state till the end of the month.

The Bay of Bengal stream of the monsoon is bringing heavy rains to Andhra Pradesh presently. It will push into Jharkhand, Bihar, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Maharashtra in the next 3-4 days.

We will have to wait a week for the Arabian Sea monsoon to revive. The Bay of Bengal stream can do little on its own without a little support from the former.

Monsoon has been overall weak in June. One waits for NOAA's forecast of heavy rains July-October to fructify.

The good news is that NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in its latest assessment foresees very heavy rainfall on Indian west coast (mainly northern coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan) and in Chattisgarh, eastern Madhya Pradesh during the June 22-28 period. It also says Madden Julian Oscillation, MJO might strengthen over the Indian Ocean soon.

Arabian Sea Depression: Heavy Rains In Mumbai, Gujarat On June 10, 2016

JUNE 1, 2016

A deep depression is likely to form in the Arabian Sea around June 9, 2016, which will bring a deluge to coastal Maharashtra (including Mumbai) and Gujarat.

Monsoon will become very active on the Arabian Sea coast of India from June 6. Increased rainfall will be seen in Karnataka and southern Maharashtra from June 6.

Mumbai will receive very heavy rains on June 8-9.

This will culminate in the formation of a tropical depression on June 9 off the Mumbai coast south of Saurashtra.

This system is expected to move into Saurashtra and Kutch regions bringing flooding rains till June 12-13. Coastal Sindh too might receive considerable precipitation.

The system may then swing back into the Arabian Sea, weaken and drift towards Oman. Oman may receive isolated showers by June 16.

The vigorous monsoon activity in the coming fortnight may bring phenomenal amounts of rain on India 's west coast. The forecast map indicates these areas will get accumulated rains of 25 inches in the coming 15 days.

Heavy Rains Possible In Mumbai, Gujarat On June 10, 2016

MAY 29, 2016

XTREME WEATHER POSSIBILITY 

It is quite possible that heavy to very heavy rains may lash Mumbai and parts of Gujarat around June 10-12, 2016. Forecast models hint at flooding rains something in the range of 5-6 inches.

This will be possible because of increasing stormy monsoon activity in the West Indian Ocean near the Somalia coast which all numerical weather prediction models say will happen in early June.

This stormy system will throw out  a trough that will gradually migrate to the Indian west coast by June 10.

It is possible the circulation may linger over the Mumbai-Gujarat area for 4-5 days hence flooding could occur in many places.

There are still more than 10 days to go, but it is a real possibility. We shall track the forecasts and keep you updated. At the earliest.

Monsoon To Hit Mumbai On June 10, 2016

Indian Monsoon 2016 To Rev Up In Early June

MAY 28, 2016

Mumbai will receive upto 4-5 inches of rain by June 12, 2016. Hardly a sign of a delayed weak monsoon. Though the Indian Meteorological Department has warned that the onset over Kerala might be delayed, global forecast models say though monsoon activity may be subdued in the last days of May, things will begin to change by June 5.

Monsoon will gather momentum as it will clamber up the Indian west coast. Mumbai will receive its first heavy showers around June 10, 2016.

By that time rainfall will intensify over the states of Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, southern Maharashtra and Telangana. 

Gujarat will start receiving increased pre-monsoon showers. As will Madhya Pradesh. In fact looking at the rain forecast map below only Rajasthan will remain dry by June 13, 2016.

One can say that rainfall activity is going to accelerate in the second week of June.

The rain forecast map above shows the total precipitation from now till June 13, 2016. The figures are in inches.

Above map shows the average monsoon rainfall received by different regions of India.

Above map shows the progress of monsoon 2016 till May 27.

XWF Prediction: Bumper Indian Monsoon 2016 Rains Predicts US ClimateForecast Agency

April 19, 2016

South Asia and India are in for record monsoon rains in 2016 if the United States NOAA's ( National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency) NMME forecast model is to be believed.

Roughly put it predicts rains in excess of 10% above normal. Western India will receive the most rains, though the trend will be seen all over the country, except the states of Odisha and West Bengal.

And surprisingly the deluge is expected to continue till November.

Parts of western India including Gujarat will receive rains about 2-4 inches above normal.

Given below are forecast maps for June-November by the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble). It shows the anomalies , that is excess or deficient rains than the average. The blue denotes an excess of more than 100 mm. The green denotes excess from 1-100 mm. The orange colour denotes deficient rainfall. Darker orange means scantier rains.

According to this forecasts even Pakistan and Oman will get above average precipitation in the coming months.

Another surprise from this prediction is that the usually wet Myanmar (Burma) will receive deficient rains this year.

Canadian Forecast Monsoon 2016

El Niño Waning, Indian Monsoon Will Be Good

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction

June 2016: Good rains in the four southern states, Bihar and Saurashtra 

July 2016: Rainfall all over India except Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha.

August 2016: Very good rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Himachal.

September 2016: Deluge in Saurashtra, Uttarakhand and Konkan.

October 2016: Good rains in Odisha, Malabar and coastal Karnataka.

November 2016: Surprisingly rains in November all over India except western Rajasthan and Kutch