Weather update South Asia: June 22, 2015.
Depression 97A is expected to enter the coast of Kutch at Lakhpat on the morning of June 24, 2015, Wednesday. The system is expected to intensify into a deep depression as it moves to the Gujarat coast.
Very heavy rainfall is expected in Kutch, Saurashtra and southern Sindh from late Tuesday evening. The rains will extend to north Gujarat and western Rajasthan by Friday.
Winds of 40-50 km/h, gusts up to 60 km/h, will lash the areas from Tuesday night (local time). In short, wind speeds just short of a tropical cyclone.
We have a suspicion that the system may intensify into a cyclone by landfall. The GFS forecast shows the expected central minimum pressure at landfall on early Wednesday morning to be 987 Mb. Now according to the Dvorak scale that equals a category 1 hurricane. That is wind speeds of 120 km/h. See the link for details .......https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique
We expect that 97A may intensify into a tropical storm by tomorrow morning. That is Tuesday morning. June 23, 2015.
97A SEEMS TO BE A CYCLONE IN THE MAKING
Our estimate is the depression is 300 kilometers southwest of Veraval in Saurashtra-Kutch. The southern quadrant of the system is the windiest. 85 km/h. The other quadrants have winds ranging from 40-65 km/h. We think this is already a tropical cyclone. The rest is nitpicking on technicalities. Latest data by GFS rules out the possibility of a big tropical cyclone. Technically it may be called a deep depression but analysing the latest GFS forecast we see 70-80 km/h winds hitting Kutch on Wednesday. That is a cyclone by any definition.
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Latest update: June 22, 2015, 1600 hours GMT
DEEP DEPRESSION 97A TO HIT SAURASHTRA TUESDAY NIGHT
The present depression 97A in the Arabian Sea will hit the Saurashtra coast between Dwarka and Porbandar on late evening tomorrow that is on June 23, 2015, Tuesday.
It will move through Kutch and then move onto Rajasthan and then Delhi.
Very heavy rainfall is expected in Saurashtra and Kutch in the next 72 hours starting tomorrow afternoon. There may be showers in Sindh on Wednesday.
The rains in Saurashtra and Kutch will be accompanied by strong winds of 50-60 km/h till Thursday.
This forecast is based on NCEP GFS latest data issued just now.
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Meanwhile the European forecast model in its latest forecast today June 22, 2015, 1200 hours GMT data, says 97A is already a tropical storm with a central pressure of 982 Mb. Quite a storm.
It predicts the storm will move straight east, touch southern Saurashtra at Diu in the next 24 hours and hit South Gujarat near Vapi-Valsad on Wednesday evening.
The low pressure area in the Arabian Sea has organised into a depression. At 0000 hours GMT it lay 275 kilometers WSW of Veraval, Gujarat. The southern quadrant of the system is throwing winds of 85 km/h. The Eumetsat MPE image was taken at 0400 hours GMT today. The red color denotes heavy rainfall. The system will now move towards the Gujarat coast. Rainfall activity will pick up from tomorrow itself in the region.
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| RAINFALL SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE ARABIAN SEA DEPRESSION 97A AT 0400 GMT TODAY, JUNE 22, 2015 |
Depression 97A is expected to enter the coast of Kutch at Lakhpat on the morning of June 24, 2015, Wednesday. The system is expected to intensify into a deep depression as it moves to the Gujarat coast.
Very heavy rainfall is expected in Kutch, Saurashtra and southern Sindh from late Tuesday evening. The rains will extend to north Gujarat and western Rajasthan by Friday.
Winds of 40-50 km/h, gusts up to 60 km/h, will lash the areas from Tuesday night (local time). In short, wind speeds just short of a tropical cyclone.
We have a suspicion that the system may intensify into a cyclone by landfall. The GFS forecast shows the expected central minimum pressure at landfall on early Wednesday morning to be 987 Mb. Now according to the Dvorak scale that equals a category 1 hurricane. That is wind speeds of 120 km/h. See the link for details .......https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique
We expect that 97A may intensify into a tropical storm by tomorrow morning. That is Tuesday morning. June 23, 2015.
97A SEEMS TO BE A CYCLONE IN THE MAKING
Our estimate is the depression is 300 kilometers southwest of Veraval in Saurashtra-Kutch. The southern quadrant of the system is the windiest. 85 km/h. The other quadrants have winds ranging from 40-65 km/h. We think this is already a tropical cyclone. The rest is nitpicking on technicalities. Latest data by GFS rules out the possibility of a big tropical cyclone. Technically it may be called a deep depression but analysing the latest GFS forecast we see 70-80 km/h winds hitting Kutch on Wednesday. That is a cyclone by any definition.
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Latest update: June 22, 2015, 1600 hours GMT
DEEP DEPRESSION 97A TO HIT SAURASHTRA TUESDAY NIGHT
The present depression 97A in the Arabian Sea will hit the Saurashtra coast between Dwarka and Porbandar on late evening tomorrow that is on June 23, 2015, Tuesday.
It will move through Kutch and then move onto Rajasthan and then Delhi.
Very heavy rainfall is expected in Saurashtra and Kutch in the next 72 hours starting tomorrow afternoon. There may be showers in Sindh on Wednesday.
The rains in Saurashtra and Kutch will be accompanied by strong winds of 50-60 km/h till Thursday.
This forecast is based on NCEP GFS latest data issued just now.
------
Meanwhile the European forecast model in its latest forecast today June 22, 2015, 1200 hours GMT data, says 97A is already a tropical storm with a central pressure of 982 Mb. Quite a storm.
It predicts the storm will move straight east, touch southern Saurashtra at Diu in the next 24 hours and hit South Gujarat near Vapi-Valsad on Wednesday evening.
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| NOAA WATER VAPOR IMAGE OF ARABIAN SEA DEPRESSION 97A AT 0000 HRS GMT, JUNE 22, 2015 |
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