Arabian Sea Deep Depression (Or Cyclone?) To Hit Kutch Early June 24, 2015

Weather update South Asia: June 22, 2015.

The low pressure area in the Arabian Sea has organised into a depression. At 0000 hours GMT it lay 275 kilometers WSW of Veraval, Gujarat. The southern quadrant of the system is throwing winds of 85 km/h. The Eumetsat MPE image was taken at 0400 hours GMT today. The red color denotes heavy rainfall. The system will now move towards the Gujarat coast. Rainfall activity will pick up from tomorrow itself in the region.

RAINFALL SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE ARABIAN SEA DEPRESSION 97A AT 0400 GMT TODAY, JUNE 22, 2015

Depression 97A is expected to enter the coast of Kutch at Lakhpat on the morning of June 24, 2015, Wednesday. The system is expected to intensify into a deep depression as it moves to the Gujarat coast.

Very heavy rainfall is expected in Kutch, Saurashtra and southern Sindh from late Tuesday evening. The rains will extend to north Gujarat and western Rajasthan by Friday.

Winds of 40-50 km/h, gusts up to 60 km/h, will lash the areas from Tuesday night (local time). In short, wind speeds just short of a tropical cyclone.

We have a suspicion that the system may intensify into a cyclone by landfall. The GFS forecast shows the expected central minimum pressure at landfall on early Wednesday morning to be 987 Mb. Now according to the Dvorak scale that equals a category 1 hurricane. That is wind speeds of 120 km/h. See the link for details .......https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

We expect that 97A may intensify into a tropical storm by tomorrow morning. That is Tuesday morning. June 23, 2015.

97A SEEMS TO BE A CYCLONE IN THE MAKING 

 Our estimate is the depression is 300 kilometers southwest of Veraval in Saurashtra-Kutch. The southern quadrant of the system is the windiest. 85 km/h. The other quadrants have winds ranging from 40-65 km/h. We think this is already a tropical cyclone. The rest is nitpicking on technicalities. Latest data by GFS rules out the possibility of a big tropical cyclone. Technically it may be called a deep depression but analysing the latest GFS forecast we see 70-80 km/h winds hitting Kutch on Wednesday. That is a cyclone by any definition.
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Latest update: June 22, 2015, 1600 hours GMT

DEEP DEPRESSION 97A TO HIT SAURASHTRA TUESDAY NIGHT

The present depression 97A in the Arabian Sea will hit the Saurashtra coast between Dwarka and Porbandar on late evening tomorrow that is on June 23, 2015, Tuesday.

It will move through Kutch and then move onto Rajasthan and then Delhi. 

Very heavy rainfall is expected in Saurashtra and Kutch in the next 72 hours starting tomorrow afternoon. There may be showers in Sindh on Wednesday.

The rains in Saurashtra and Kutch will be accompanied by strong winds of 50-60 km/h till Thursday.

This forecast is based on NCEP GFS latest data issued just now.
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Meanwhile the European forecast model  in its latest forecast  today June 22, 2015, 1200 hours GMT data, says 97A is already a tropical storm with a central pressure of 982 Mb. Quite a storm.

It predicts the storm will move straight east, touch southern Saurashtra at Diu in the next 24 hours and hit South Gujarat near Vapi-Valsad on Wednesday evening.

NOAA WATER VAPOR IMAGE OF ARABIAN SEA DEPRESSION 97A AT 0000 HRS GMT, JUNE 22, 2015

Gujarat Stares At Stormy Rain As Arabian Sea Deep Depression (Or Cyclone) Will Hit June 25, 2015

The present low pressure system in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Gujarat will intensify into a deep depression, perhaps even a tropical cyclone (Komen) and hit the state on June 25, 2015.

The system presently lies a few hundred kilometers south west of Veraval. In the coming 48 hours it will continue to drift away from the Gujarat coast. On Monday, June 21, 2015, it will start turning back towards Gujarat.

It is likely to enter Saurashtra-Kutch area of Gujarat on Thursday, June 25, 2015. It will hovers over the state till Saturday then dissipate. Under its influence very heavy rainfall accompanied with strong winds of 60-70 km/h are expected in Gujarat, especially in the Saurashtra-Kutch region from Wednesday itself.

The rains will continue from Wednesday till Saturday, that is from June 24-27, 2015. There may be flooding in some areas. The damage from the winds could be substantial.

The system will reach its peak intensity on June 21, 2015, reaching a minimum central pressure of 985 Mb. That is a tropical cyclone. It will be a borderline case between a deep depression and a tropical cyclone.

The official met agencies call 97A (the number given to it by NOAA- National Oceanography and Atmospheric Administration, an US agency) an upper air cyclonic circulation now. It is that presently. But it is organising itself into a well defined low pressure area. It will turn officially into a low by tomorrow morning. It will then intensify further possibly into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday, June 23, 2015. Or a deep depression. A borderline case. It will weaken into a low by the time it enters Gujarat by June 25, 2015. But it will bring a lot of stormy rainfall.

There is a possibility that the system may hit Gujarat earlier as one of the reliable forecast models is hinting at it. Please keep in touch. We will provide running updates as we get further information.

LATEST UPDATE June 21, 2015. 1030 GMT.

The system 97A will become organized into a deep depression or a tropical cyclone by Monday evening. From Tuesday, June 23, 2015, it will start coming back.

It will weaken a little before it enters the Saurashtra-Kutch western coast on Thursday, June 25.

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0430 HOURS GMT JUNE 21, 2015 OF THE ARABIAN SEA RAIN SYSTEM 97A

Arabian Sea Low Pressure Area To Form Today (June 20, 2015) Off Saurashtra Coast

LATEST FORECAST UPDATE FOR ARABIAN SEA LOW

It will form today off the coast of Saurashtra region. Where will it go?

Two scenarios.

FIRST: it will stay close to the Saurashtra coast and intensify into a possible depression on Monday, June 22, 2015. It will make landfall into the region on Tuesday, move through central Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and end up finally in West Bengal.

SECOND: it intensifies and move back into the Arabian Sea, goes quite near the coast of Oman, then turn back. It will make landfall into Kutch on June June 25, 2015 and move through western Rajasthan towards Delhi. Heavy rains likely in Kutch, Saurashtra, and Sindh from June 23rd onwards.

The upper air circulation (the low) extends up to 8 kilometers in the atmosphere.

The image below shows the current situation in Arabian Sea now (0300 UTC, June 20, 2015).

A Big Rain Maker Low To Form In Arabian Sea Soon

After the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea is going to spawn a deep depression in the next couple of days by June 21, 2015.

Perhaps this will be even a bigger system than the Bay of Bengal depression which is presently deluging Andhra Pradesh.

The low pressure area will form by Saturday near the coast of Saurashtra. After that there is some disagreements amongst the computer forecast models. So we draw out the two possible scenarios.

First scenario: The low forms tomorrow and then stays near the coast of Saurashtra region of Gujarat state for a couple of days and then makes landfall into the region on Monday.

The second scenario is the low develops near the coast of Saurashtra on Saturday, intensifies into a depression and then swing aways from the Saurashtra coast back into the sea. It takes a long walk. Goes quite near the Oman coast and then turns back and makes landfall into the Kutch-Sindh border areas on June 25, 2015.

Since the monsoons have set in the chance of the system turning into a tropical cyclone is low. But it may turn into a depression or deep depression, both of which are mean little siblings of a tropical cyclone.

So we can look forward to a lot of rain, perhaps windy, in Saurashtra, Kutch and perhaps Sindh in the coming days.

SATELLITE IMAGE (1000 HRS GMT JUNE 19, 2015) OF THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

Bay Of Bengal Depression To Push Monsoons Into North India: Heavy Rains In AP, Odisha, MP Expected

VERY HEAVY RAINS IN ANDHRA, ODISHA IN NEXT 3 DAYS

The current cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal is going to intensify into a deep depression and move north along the Indian coast in the next 36 hours.

It will make landfall into Odisha on Saturday, June 20, 2015. As a result very heavy rainfall is expected in Andhra and Telangana in the next 36 hours. After that the rains will move into Odisha, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.

Andhra and Odisha will experience winds of 40-50 km/h. Especially the coastal areas of the states.

After June 23 the system will swing into Uttar Pradesh. As a result the monsoons will move into north India in the next seven days.

A special note of caution. This system is big and will sustain itself for one week. There is a very strong possibility of flooding in the states it will pass through. The most vulnerable states are Andhra, Odisha and Madhya Pradesh.

SATELLITE IMAGE OF BAY OF BENGAL AT 1200 HOURS GMT, JUNE 18, 2015

Monsoon Update: Expected Arabian Sea Rain System May Hit Mumbai June 23, 2015

ARABIAN SEA LOW: MODELS GIVE COFUSING SIGNALS

The expected path of the upcoming Arabian Sea low has changed. Now it may go to Mumbai on June 23, 2015.

The low will start off as a circulation and organize iinto a low by Sunday near the Saurashtra coast off Dwarka.

Another model predicts it will remain a trough not a low pressure area.

Models presently agree it will move to the Indian west coast by June 23, 2015.

But one wonders. The forecast models are saying different things every day. Our guess is it could go anywhere. Sindh. Gujarat. Or Maharashtra.

But we can say two things with certainty.

One. The Arabian Sea is going to turn very stormy in the coming days.

Second. The expected system will be a big rain maker. Where ever it will go, we are looking at a deluge.

Monsoon is complex. Reputed sites like AccuWeather and Wunderground rarely predict right if it is going to rain in your city today or not.

Two Storm Systems To Propel Monsoons To Indian Hinterland In A Week

Two low pressure areas (Perhaps tropical depressions) likely to form one each in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea within the next three days will propel monsoons into the Indian interiors.

BAY OF BENGAL LOW TOMORROW, ARABIAN SEA SYSTEM TO FORM ON FRIDAY, JUNE 19, 2015.

The Bay of Bengal low will become well marked by tomorrow. In a couple of days it will turn into a deep depression and enter Andhra and Telangana. Very heavy rains have started in the coastal areas of Andhra which will increase as the system intensifies in the next 48 hours.

It is expected to move through Telangana, northern Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh and perhaps into Gujarat by June 23, 2015.

The low in the Arabian Sea will form on Friday, June 19, 2015. It will form just south of the Saurashtra Coast and just hover around in the same area for the next three days. There are chances this system may intensify into a depression. It will make landfall into Saurashtra on June 23, 2015, Tuesday and then move though North Gujarat into southeastern Rajasthan.

It will reach Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh by Friday.

For the uninitiated, please note that a low pressure area and depression are very akin to a tropical cyclone, only the winds are much less. But they are big rain makers.

So we see that within a week heavy rains will occur in Andhra, Telangana, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, western Uttar Pradesh in the coming seven days because of these two rainmaker systems.

Forecast models hint at another 'low' hitting West Bengal after a week. But that's for later.

THIS SATELLITE IMAGE (JUNE 17, 2015, 0630 GMT) SHOWS THE MONSOON BUILDUP PRESENTLY

Mumbai, South Gujarat Stare At A Deluge, Floods On June 23, 2015

Major reliable computer forecast models are predicting very heavy rains in Mumbai and South Gujarat on June 23, 2015.

The reasons lie in the expected resurgence of the monsoons in the next 48 hours. We have talked about this in an earlier article.

As we said earlier the monsoons are really going to rev up, shorn of the Ashobaa baggage, in the next two days.

A start has been made with the increased  monsoon activity off the Andhra coast in the Bay of Bengal. A cyclonic circulation has already formed in the sea which is going to intensify into a low pressure area or a depression by June 20, 2015.

And in the Arabian Sea too things are going to happen in the next two days. A low pressure trough is taking shape presently. In the next few days this trough will become well marked and drift towards the Indian coast. By June 20-21, it might turn into a low pressure area.

About the Bay of Bengal expected system there is some disagreement as to its track. One forecast says it will move into Telangana, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and then swing north towards Uttar Pradesh. Another forecast predicts it will move west and reach western Maharashtra and Mumbai on June 23, 2015.

If this happens this Bay of Bengal system will collide headlong into the Arabian Sea low hovering near the Mumbai coast. The result? A deluge. Flooding rains in Mumbai and south Gujarat on June 23 onwards.

Even if the Bay of Bengal system moves to north India, very heavy rains are likely in Mumbai on June 23, 2015, as a result of the Arabian Sea low pressure area.

Anyway one looks at it, the conclusion is inescapable. 

Very heavy rains in Mumbai On June 23, 2015.

THIS FORECAST MAP SHOWS THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS IN MUMBAI ON JUNE 23, 2015

Indian Monsoons To Intensify Soon: Depression Off Andhra Coast On June 20, 2015

The monsoons are going to intensify rapidly in the coming few days with the formation of a depression in the Bay Of Bengal on June 20, 2015.

The intensification will be two pronged. The depression in the Bay of Bengal on June 20. And the formation of a low/cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea soon.

Let us discuss in details.

DEEP DEPRESSION OFF ANDHRA COAST JUNE 20, 2015

The low pressure area near the Andhra coast has already formed. It will intensify into a depression (May be a deep depression) by June 20.

It will move through Andhra, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh in the following days.

Very to very heavy rainfall expected in these states after June 20, 2015.

The system will swing north into Rajasthan-western Uttar Pradesh on June 24, 2015.

HEAVY RAINS IN GUJARAT, SINDH LIKELY IN A WEEK

A low is expected to form in the Arabian Sea after June 20, 2015. It will start off as a trough off the Mumbai coast and then organize itself in  low around June 22.

This will further intensify into a depression and move through Gujarat and then enter Sindh in Pakistan.

Very heavy precipitation is expected in these area after June 22, 2015.

It is possible the system may not organize into a low but remain a upper air cyclonic circulation. But it will be a big rain maker.

Presently both major computer models are supporting heavy rains in western India after June 20. The GFS predicts a track of Saurashtra-Kutch-Sindh. The European model says it will move towards Mumbai-South Gujarat.

Image credit

MONSOONS TO REV UP FROM JUNE 16, 2015

Update June 13, 2015

A DEPRESSION LIKELY IN BAY OF BENGAL IN A FEW DAYS

After the Arabian Sea turned stormy and gave birth to tropical cyclone Ashobaa it is the turn of Bay of Bengal.

There is a distinct possibility that the bay may spawn a low in the next 72 hours which may turn into a deep depression within a day or two after that.

If this happens the monsoons will become active again. Ashobaa had drained away some of its enegy.

Heavy stormy rainfall seems to be coming Andhra's way as the depression is likely to form near its coast.

Hard to be certain as the monsoons are not giving clear indications where they will energize from.

We had talked about that yesterday.

Presently it appears the Andhra coast will be the next center of attraction.
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Indications are the south west monsoons will become active again from June 16 onwards. The reason being the formation of two low pressure areas, one each in tthe Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

One of the lows will materialize near the Andhra coast and then move along the coast to Odisha and then enter West Bengal.

The Arabian Sea low may form around June 18. It may move into south Gujarat in a day or two after that.

In fact another low is expected in the Bay of Bengal on June 22, 2015. But ten days is a long time.

Imminent Arabian Sea 'Low' Will Propel Monsoons

On the monsoon front the news are disheartening. Monsoon 2015 has left top meteorological agencies perplexed and professional weather forecasters have gone into a shell.

Things may change soon. Forecast models predict a low pressure area forming in the east central Arabian Sea on around June 5-6, 2015. This low pressure area or depression (Some models also say may be a cyclone) will rejuvenate the monsoon rains.

Increased rainfall is expected in Kerala and Karnataka from June 3, 2015, which will further intensify with the formation of the aforementioned low. If that low does occur, the rains may reach Maharashtra coast within days after that.

It all depends on where the low decides to go. If it sticks close to the Indian west coast, then the rains will reach Mumbai by June 10. Otherwise the rains will go to Gujarat or Sindh (Some say even Oman). SEE XWF-WEATHER INDICATIONS

Looks like we have very wet stormy weather ahead after June 5, 2015. It all depends on the Arabian Sea 'low'.

Read Arabian Sea Storm Possibilities And Latest Updates
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RAINFALL FORECAST FOR INDIA TILL JUNE 5, 2015

In the next three days the rains will be active mainly in Tamil Nadu. Very heavy rainfall is forecast for the entire state in the next 48 hours.

After June 3, 2015, the rains will gradually move westwards towards Karnataka coast. The formation of a low pressure area off the coast on June 5, 2015 will lead to heavy precipitation in coastal Karnataka from June 5, 2015. The rain will spread to southern Maharashtra coast and the entire west coast of Indian by June 6.

So we see a rejuvenation of monsoons from June 4.

THE MAP SHOWS TOTAL RAINFALL FROM JUNE 1 TO JUNE 6, 2015. THE MONSOONS WILL PICK UP IN A DAY OR TWO.

Dismal Monsoon Rainfall Expected Till June 22, 2015

IMD's grim picture for monsoon 2015 seems to be coming true. Looks like the villain El Nino is going to spoil the rains in the Indian sub-continent, at least for the next one month, till June 22, 2015.

The CFS Model, the long range climate forecast model designed by NOAA in its predictions for the coming four weeks paints a grim picture of deficient rainfall, in almost all parts of India.

Overall the rains till June 22 are going to be below average in almost all areas of India, except for some pockets of North East, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka.

Given below are rainfall forecast maps for the coming four weeks, starting from May 25, 2015.

Please note that the CFS forecasts are issued every day. What we say now is the basic trend that we have discerned after monitoring the data for the last one week. We shall keep you informed of future trends of the rainfall possibility as envisaged by the Climate Forecast Model.

Click here for CFS Monthly Forecasts (June to September 2015)

WEEK 1 (May 25 to June 1)

The worst affected will be coastal areas along the Arabian Sea. The rain deficiency will be as high as 4 inches in some areas.

MAY 25 TO JUNE 1: KERALA WILL HAVE RAINS 4-5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. ONLY PARTS OF ASSAM, NORTH BENGAL AND NORTHERN BANGLADESH WILL HAVE SURPLUS PRECIPITATION.

WEEK 2: JUNE 1 TO JUNE 8

JUNE 1 TO JUNE 8: THE RAIN DEFICIENCY ON INDIAN WEST COAST MAY BE AS HIGH AS 6-7 INCHES. EVEN THE NORTH EASTERN STATES WILL RECEIVE RAINS 5-6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

JUNE 8 TO JUNE 15, 2015

JUNE 8 TO JUNE 15: THE HORROR STORY CONTINUES INTO THE THIRD WEEK. RAINS IN KERALA AND INDIAN WEST COASTAL AREAS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE BY ALMOST 10 INCHES. ONLY CERTAIN POCKETS IN KARNATAKA WILL HAVE SURPLUS RAINS (ABOUT 2 INCHES)

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 22, 2015

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 22: A LOW PRESSURE IN THE ARABIAN SEA WILL DUMP PRECIOUS COPIOUS RAIN INTO THE SEA. RAINS DEFICIENT IN INDIAN WEST COAST, ODISHA, ANDHRA AND WEST BENGAL. ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS ONLY IN PARTS OF KARNATAKA, TAMIL NADU AND IN MANIPUR, TRIPURA, MEGHALAYA AND MIZORAM

Monsoon Forecast By Another Indian Government Agency (CMMACS) Predicts A Brighter Monsoon 2015 Picture

In India, the Indian Meteorological Department is not the only government agency which gives monsoon forecasts. It is CMMACS (CSIR Centre For Mathematical Modelling And Simulation), now called CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute.

This agency has predicted that the monsoons will hit hit Kerala on May 25, 2015 (Quite near our prediction of May 23). The initial wave will be weak followed by a stronger wave on June 11, 2015.

Its forecasts are

Probabilities for excess, normal and deficit rainfall over different regions and months
June-August, 2015
Region Probability(%)
                          Excess Normal Drought
All India                   20      50      30
North-India              10      20      70
South India              30      60      10
Central India            20      70      10
North-east India       20      70      10
North-west India      10      70      20

So according to it all India there is 50% chance of a normal monsoon, 20% probability of a excess rainfall and only 30% chance of a drought in 2015. It also agrees with what we have said in an article today, that northern India will receive scanty rainfall this monsoon.

Monsoon 2015 Update: Weak June, Good July Rainfall Expected

NOAAs CFS (Climate Forecast System) predicts poor monsoon rainfall in June in the Indian subcontinent. July and August will bring good rains.

The monsoons are knocking at Kerala's doors. But the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon is likely to remain weak in the coming days.

The IMD considers a certain amount of rainfall to declare the onset of monsoon. That is why it says it will come to Kerala around May 30. Because around that time considerable rainfall is forecasted for the state.

If we do not take the rains into account, monsoons have already reached the state. The monsoons winds reaching up to 14 kilometers in the atmosphere are already in place. They have already reached Kerala, Tamil Nadu, southern Andhra and Karnataka.

But the Arabian Sea monsoons will remain weak in the coming 10 days. It is not likely to move north in the coming days. In contrast the Bay of Bengal monsoon stream is vigorous and will move north into West Bengal and Bihar around June 4, 2015.

SCENARIO ON JUNE 4, 2015. THE MAP SHOWS  A VIGOROUS  BAY OF BENGAL MONSOON STREAM. THE ACTIVITY OVER ARABIAN SEA IS FEEBLE.

CFS MONTHLY MONSOON FORECAST

The American NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) forecasts poor monsoon rains in June for India. July and August are likely to be above average rain fall months.

Given below are rainfall forecast maps for June-September. Please note the maps show the anomaly (below average, above average) in inches for each month.

One fact stands out very clearly. Average or below average rainfall is expected in north Indian states (Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana) and Rajasthan this monsoon.

The CFS forecasts are seasonal long range forecasts. They give a good indication of the trends. We will keep you informed of any changes in the CFS forecast for monsoon 2015.

THE FORECAST FOR JUNE 2015 VERY POOR RAINS ON THE ARABIAN SEA COASTAL AREAS AND MANY OTHER STATES. ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS ARE LIKELY ONLY IN NORTH EASTERN INDIA, PARTS OF BANGLADESH, TAMIL NADU AND PARTS OF KERALA AND SOUTHERN ANDHRA.

JULY WILL BE BETTER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS IN GUJARAT, MADHYA PRADESH, MAHARASHRA, ANDHRA, ODISHA, WEST BENGAL, BANGLADESH AND PARTS OF BIHAR.

AUGUST WILL BRING GOOD RAINS TO SAURASHTRA, MAHARASHTRA, ODISHA, ANDHRA, JHARKHAND, WEST BENGAL.

SEPTEMBER WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS ONLY IN PARTS ODISHA, MADHYA PRADESH AND NORTH EAST INDIAN STATES

JMA (JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY) SEASONAL FORECAST PAINTS DISMAL MONSOON 2015 PICTURE

The JMA in its three month forecast issued in May predicts a very gloomy picture for Indian monsoons in 2015. It says in June-July-August rainfall is going to below normal in almost all of India, except for the states of Odisha, West Bengal and northern Andhra where there will be slightly above average rainfall. SEE FORECAST MAP BELOW

THREE MONTH RAINFALL FORECAST (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST)  MONSOON 2015. JMA PREDICTS BELOW AVERAGE RAINS IN ALMOST ALL OF INDIA

India Weather Update: May 21, 2015: Bay Of Bengal Monsoon Stream Expected Stronger Than Arabian Sea

The Bay of Bengal is now the powerhouse sustaining the monsoon winds. An upper air cyclonic circulation in central the Bay is bringing floods to Maynmar now.

The circulation will continue in the coming days and will shift westward bringing the monsoons to the Indian east coast by June 5, 2015. As a result central Bay of Bengal is going to see a deluge in the coming week which will drench the Andaman Islands.

By the first week of June, rainfall activity over the coastal states will increase. In Tamil Nadu, Andhra and Odisha.

The Arabian Sea branch of the monsoons has petered out after bringing heavy rains to Kerala and Karnataka. It is expected to strengthen by June 5 and rainfall activity will increase. Kerala and Karnataka will be covered by the monsoons by that time. But Mumbai will have to wait. The Arabian Sea branch will not be as vigorous as the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon in the coming 15 days.

By June 6, 2015, the monsoons will have covered Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, parts of Andhra, Indian North Eastern States, and Bangladesh.

EXPECTED PROGRESS OF MONSOON BY JUNE 6, 2015

EQUINOO Will Bring A Good 2015 Monsoon For India?

NOAA has said that there is a 90% chance of El Nino staying late summer, 80% chance that this unwanted guest would linger on throughout 2015. We all know El Nino is a bad guy who adversely affects the Indian Monsoons.

Well that was the bad news.

The good news? EQUINOO. You might say what on earth is that?

The full form is Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation. The so-called Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). What is it?

It is a phenomenon that influences the Indian monsoon. It involves the Indian Ocean waters near the coast of Somalia and also near Indonesia. If the Somalian waters are warmer and stormier than the Indonesian waters then it is called a Positive IOD.

THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD)

A positive IOD is good news for the Indian monsoons. And it is positive now. The coast near Somalia has been stormy for quite many days and it is likely to stay that way for many more days. (SEE FORECAST CHARTS BELOW)

So a bad El Nino might be nullified by a positive IOD and we will get a bumper monsoon.

Below are the Indian Ocean Dipole forecast charts for June, August and October 2015. They are expected to be most positive in October. Heavy rains then?

Galloping Indian Monsoon May Hit Kerala In Days

UPDATE: MAY 19, 2015

We stand by our earlier forecast of monsoons hitting Kerala by May 23-24. But after that the monsoon winds will suddenly lose steam. By June 1, 2015, they will have reached southern Maharashtra, after covering Kerala and Karnataka. Mumbai will have to wait.

On the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon, by June 1, the entire Indian north-eastern states, Bangladesh and parts of West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra will be covered.

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 The South West Monsoon this year seems to be galloping. Two days back it entered the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. And if forecasts are to be believed it will hit Kerala by May 23, 2015. It is already nudging southern Sri Lanka.

Please note that we are NOT taking into consideration the parameters that the Indian Meteorological Department uses. The IMD uses a subjective method described in this article. (Further information can be had in this article by Indian Institute Of Tropical Meteorology).We base our prediction on the upper air winds (above 12 kilometers). Monsoons is just not rains and dark clouds. The monsoon system extends high in the atmosphere. When the direction of these high air winds change on a long range basis, we can say with surety that monsoons are coming.

Seeing these high air winds, we see them reaching Kerala on around May 23, Mumbai by May 29 and the Indian north east and eastern Indian by the end of the month. Way before the normal onset of monsoons. We see the monsoons touching eastern Gujarat by June 2, 2015!

MONSOON TODAY NOW. REACHED ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS, TOUCHING SOUTHERN SRI LANKA

MAY 23, 2015. MONSOONS HIT KERALA

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Bay Of Bengal To Turn Very Stormy In End of May 2015

VERY STORMY BAY OF BENGAL IN THE COMING DAYS 

 As the stormy weather near the Kerala coast in the Arabian Sea gradually peters out, the Bay of Bengal is going to turn very stormy in the next ten days, starting from May 18, 2015. I guess the monsoons are gaining momentum in the Bay of Bengal. Just short of a tropical cyclone.

 Till May 26-27, the entire Bay of Bengal is going to turn very rough with 40-50 kph winds and waves. The Indian east coast will receive a lot of rainfall in the coming days, starting with Tamil Nadu, then coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh eventually. But the heaviest rains are going to occur in Myanmar. Expect flooding in the country around May 25, 2015.

 See the rain forecast map for the coming 15 days for South Asia below.

IMD's Weak 2015 Monsoon Prediction Not The Gospel Truth

The Indian Meteorological Department has expressed fears of El Nino causing a weak 2015 monsoon. But this is to be taken with a pinch of salt. The IMD's predictions in the past have often been wide off the mark.

We reproduce below what the Wall Street Journal has to say about this.

India’s weather department this week unveiled its annual early forecast of how much rain the monsoon will likely dump on the Subcontinent this year. A precise prediction is crucial for the hundreds of millions of farmers who depend on the annual rains but history shows that these early forecasts are usually wrong.

Last year the India Meteorological Department predicted a slightly weak monsoon, but India got a drought. The year before it forecast below-average rains, and the subcontinent got well above average. In 2009 when India had its worst drought in decades, the IMD had predicted a normal monsoon.

The government’s weather watchers use the average rainfall for the last 50 years to define what is normal. If the rainfall for the June-through-September rainy season falls between 96% and 104% of the average, then that is a normal or good monsoon.

Rainfall of less than 90% is considered a drought, rainfall of more than 110% of the average is considered an excess.

The department has been monitoring the moody monsoon for more than a century and over the years has had to repeatedly tweak its forecasting model and acquire new technology to better predict the rains. But its earliest predictions still leave a lot to be desired.

While the IMD allows for a wide margin of error of 5% above or below its April predictions, it still rarely gets it right.  Even within that 10 percentage point margin of error, its early prediction has been right in only six of the last 21 years.

Monsoons To Hit South Asia Early This Year (2015)

Yesterday we had predicted a powerful cyclone hitting western India (Gujarat) in the first week of June 2015, based on forecast based on NOAA's CFS (Climate Forecast Model).

Studying the model forecast further we noticed that the monsoons are likely to touch India much earlier than normal. The normal date of onset of monsoons in Kerala is June 1.

Much to our astonishment we discovered that the CFS Model predicts the monsoon system entering the Arabian Sea about 15 days earlier around May 15, 2015. Please see the CFS precipitation maps below. Each map spans the total rainfall in a 5 days period.

Please note that the CFS forecasts are not accurate.

MAY 7- MAY 11: THE MONSOONS ARE STRENGTHENING IN SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL

MAY 12- MAY 16: HEAVY MONSOON RAINS NEAR SOUTH SRI LANKA.

MAY 17- MAY 21: THE RAINS HAVE SPREAD TO SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AND MALDIVES.

MAY 22- MAY 26: THE MONSOONS MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. RAINS IN KERALA. THE BAY OF BENGAL BRANCH OF THE MONSOONS MOVE INTO INDIAN NORTH EAST, BANGLADESH AND NORTH BENGAL.

MAY 27- MAY 31: THE MONSOONS SPREAD OUT INTO SOUTHERN ARABIAN SEA. A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE KERALA COAST.

JUNE 1- JUNE 6: THE RAIN SYSTEM SPREADS TOWARDS OMAN. THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR KERALA PERSISTS.

JUNE 6- JUNE 10: HEAVY RAINS IN KERALA. THE MONSOONS MOVE NORTH THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO A CYCLONE AND HEADS TOWARDS GUJARAT.