Monsoon Forecast By Another Indian Government Agency (CMMACS) Predicts A Brighter Monsoon 2015 Picture

In India, the Indian Meteorological Department is not the only government agency which gives monsoon forecasts. It is CMMACS (CSIR Centre For Mathematical Modelling And Simulation), now called CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute.

This agency has predicted that the monsoons will hit hit Kerala on May 25, 2015 (Quite near our prediction of May 23). The initial wave will be weak followed by a stronger wave on June 11, 2015.

Its forecasts are

Probabilities for excess, normal and deficit rainfall over different regions and months
June-August, 2015
Region Probability(%)
                          Excess Normal Drought
All India                   20      50      30
North-India              10      20      70
South India              30      60      10
Central India            20      70      10
North-east India       20      70      10
North-west India      10      70      20

So according to it all India there is 50% chance of a normal monsoon, 20% probability of a excess rainfall and only 30% chance of a drought in 2015. It also agrees with what we have said in an article today, that northern India will receive scanty rainfall this monsoon.