tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-58756221575504750462024-03-14T05:42:50.314+05:30XTREME WEATHER FORECAST (XWF) For LaymenEarliest Accurate Storm Prediction. Monsoon Prediction. Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger672125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-88726482583237521012017-08-09T12:01:00.001+05:302017-08-09T16:50:58.552+05:30Franklin Intensifying To Hurricane A Day Before Veracruz Landfall<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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AUGUST 9, 2017, WEDNESDAY </div>
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Tropical storm Franklin which weakened to 35 knots winds as it crossed the Yucatan is intensifying again.<br>
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<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Franklin?src=hash">#Franklin</a> landfall in 36 hours, August 10 early hours near Papalanta de Olarte, Alamo. Question is a little storm or a category 1 hurricane? <a href="https://t.co/MVQ8ntuElv">pic.twitter.com/MVQ8ntuElv</a></div>
— XWF WEATHER (@WeatherXwf) <a href="https://twitter.com/WeatherXwf/status/895115484005244928">August 9, 2017</a></blockquote>
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A National Hurricane Center bulletin issued at 1 AM EDT, 6 AM UTC says Franklin is throwing winds of 50 knots and strengthening.<br>
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NHC expects <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Franklin?src=hash">#Franklin</a> to turn into a hurricane. HMON model predicts rapid intensification to 975 mb, 75 knots winds at Veracruz impact <a href="https://t.co/hpFsduztR9">pic.twitter.com/hpFsduztR9</a></div>
— XWF WEATHER (@WeatherXwf) <a href="https://twitter.com/WeatherXwf/status/895155082693672961">August 9, 2017</a></blockquote>
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A cause for worry for the Mexican government, as the hurricane is likely to hit Veracruz state shortly after midnight in the early hours of Thursday, local time.</div>
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Some forecast models are predicting a 975 mb storm at impact with winds 75-80 knots. That is sustained winds of 130km/h, gusts upto 160 km/h.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-37226656126761640812017-08-08T11:46:00.001+05:302017-08-08T12:19:59.292+05:30Franklin Will Intensify To A Cat 1 Hurricane Before Aug 10 Mexico
Landfall<div><br></div><div><br></div><div>Tropical storm Franklin is weakening as it hits landmass while traversing the Yucatan peninsula in its first landfall into Mexico.</div><div><br></div><div>It will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning CDT. And then as it moves west will gradually strengthen in the warm waters. Landfall will occur near Poza Rica De Hidalgo in Veracruz state at about 8 AM CDT on August 10, Thursday.</div><div><br></div><div>The most of the intensification of Franklin will occur 12 hours before the Veracruz hit. It will see it transforming into a respectable category 1 hurricane with sustained 10 minute winds of 120 km/h, gusting upto 160 km/h.</div><div><br></div><div>In the meantime expect a near 36 hours drenching of the 3 Mexican states in the Yucatan, Belize and Guatemala.</div><div><br></div><div>VIDEO: Franklin approaches Cancun</div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/weatherxwf/status/894779466236305408">https://twitter.com/weatherxwf/status/894779466236305408</a></div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-hrcUSuHN6Os/WYlaQ8GYZ0I/AAAAAAAAT_w/HDSQmBXKwwU7qLvlzHw9zsU9m0cIfCUbQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-2110278104.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-hrcUSuHN6Os/WYlaQ8GYZ0I/AAAAAAAAT_w/HDSQmBXKwwU7qLvlzHw9zsU9m0cIfCUbQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-2110278104.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>SATELLITE IMAGE OF FRANKLIN AT 5:45 UTC, 00:45 CDT.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-kCEp3qjZS7E/WYlaMMgAl7I/AAAAAAAAT_o/j6GDZn3sQP8oU5kkPQytRKz9XWMJzOJxgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-2103146110.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-kCEp3qjZS7E/WYlaMMgAl7I/AAAAAAAAT_o/j6GDZn3sQP8oU5kkPQytRKz9XWMJzOJxgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-2103146110.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>MINIMUM PRESSURE OF HURRICANE FRANKLIN BEFORE EXPECTED LANDFALL AT VERACRUZ STATE ON AUGUST 10 MORNING CDT </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-IbeijJSmLmg/WYlaJm5QoNI/AAAAAAAAT_k/e0vvAnJThMY766ApmOKXVNC7z5kOtgf_ACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--380102615.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-IbeijJSmLmg/WYlaJm5QoNI/AAAAAAAAT_k/e0vvAnJThMY766ApmOKXVNC7z5kOtgf_ACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--380102615.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>EXPECTED WIND GUSTS BEFORE THURSDAY LANDFALL</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-OgFbcRsl4cM/WYlaOVmurFI/AAAAAAAAT_s/NQWsSla2EBMnMrUjRlv6iqT9zlY3aOP9wCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1347889077.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-OgFbcRsl4cM/WYlaOVmurFI/AAAAAAAAT_s/NQWsSla2EBMnMrUjRlv6iqT9zlY3aOP9wCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1347889077.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>TRACK FORECASTS OF HURRICANE FRANKLIN </b></div></div></div><br></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-29055047696549358942017-08-05T11:32:00.001+05:302017-08-05T11:52:29.875+05:30Typhoon NORU Will Affect Southern Japan For 48 Hours<div>AUGUST 5, 2017, SATURDAY </div><div><br></div><div>The storm is intensifying. Typhoon NORU is feeding hungrily off the 30 degrees Celsius warm waters off the southern Japan coast. It is turning into a category 2 hurricane with winds, sustained, of 150 kmph, gusting upto 200 kmph.</div><div><br></div><div>It is roughly 125 kilometres south of Ibusuki, a little town on the southern tip of Kyushu island. NORU will take about 18 hours to travel that distance for landfall into mainland Japan, tomorrow morning at 9 AM local time (about 0100 UTC, Sunday).</div><div><br></div><div>The storm will slam head on into Ibusuki as a category 2 storm.</div><div><br></div><div>As said earlier, it is a slow moving storm at present. So Kyushu will bear for a long time the torrential rains and strong gusts as NORU takes its own sweet time walking by.</div><div><br></div><div>After slicing through the eastern coast of Kyushu, the storm will pass through western Shikoku, onto southwest Honshu before entering the Sea of Japan as a weakening tropical storm on Tuesday, August 8, 2017.</div><div><br></div><div>So a large swathe of southern Japan is in a thorough drenching, landslides, flooding, and wind-caused damage for almost 48 hours, Sunday morning to early Tuesday morning.</div><div><br></div><div>We have relied on the track forecast as laid down by the European model, ECMWF. The JTWC largely agrees. But the HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting) model has serious difference of opinion with the JTWC and ECMWF. It believes NORU will nudge along the eastern coast of Japan before swinging back into the Pacific Ocean off Tokyo albeit greatly weakened.</div><div><br></div><div>SEE HWRF TRACK.....</div><div><br></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/weatherxwf/status/893371528187793408">https://twitter.com/weatherxwf/status/893371528187793408</a></div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-oSbj5PCQplo/WYVhwHKdl-I/AAAAAAAAT_A/Pzqk9sjoTrMcYnekQWRFi8blNkKyus03ACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1187039078.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-oSbj5PCQplo/WYVhwHKdl-I/AAAAAAAAT_A/Pzqk9sjoTrMcYnekQWRFi8blNkKyus03ACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1187039078.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xgf_9Y0wLZ8/WYVhydeOVbI/AAAAAAAAT_E/oeY_DYA0wPwX0mG9MjVUSiQHay1DLOAHACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-242160026.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xgf_9Y0wLZ8/WYVhydeOVbI/AAAAAAAAT_E/oeY_DYA0wPwX0mG9MjVUSiQHay1DLOAHACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-242160026.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-a9umtRrUiRU/WYVhtbgRT1I/AAAAAAAAT-8/cs2HK607IFEvEZzwxthS3kYHC1toLfnkwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--679068650.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-a9umtRrUiRU/WYVhtbgRT1I/AAAAAAAAT-8/cs2HK607IFEvEZzwxthS3kYHC1toLfnkwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--679068650.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-30125191115946754382017-08-04T09:42:00.001+05:302017-08-04T09:55:45.427+05:30Typhoon NORU To Move Through Kyushu, SW HonshuAUGUST 4, 2017, FRIDAY <div><br></div><div>Typhoon NORU may have weakened to a category 1 hurricane but in the coming hours it will intensify again (winds of 160 kmph, gusts upto 200 kmph) as it batters the islands of Japanese archipelago.</div><div><br></div><div>Hardened storm chasers may belittle NORU for falling from a super typhoon to a mere category 1 storm but it still packs a punch. When it slices through the densely populated Kyushu island it will have winds of 140 kmph, gusts upto 185 kmph.</div><div><br></div><div>For people in cities like Nagasaki, Hiroshima it means trouble. More problematic will be the accompanying rainfall.</div><div><br></div><div>NORU is a slow moving storm. It will take almost 48-72 hours to move through the northern Ryukyu islands into Kyushu. Only after it moves through mainland Japan will it gain speed as it ploughs through Kyushu and southwestern Honshu into the Sea of Japan.</div><div><br></div><div>NORU will enter Kyushu only in the early hours of August 6, local time. Till then the flails of the storm will keep lashing southern Kyushu.</div><div><br></div><div>Slow moving storm means prolonged agony for the areas affected.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-dM9xX19btHQ/WYP3CqWtHMI/AAAAAAAAT-c/eJNOsSHng_YauBPI02mxD3U5VV1KO8BWgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1958267819.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-dM9xX19btHQ/WYP3CqWtHMI/AAAAAAAAT-c/eJNOsSHng_YauBPI02mxD3U5VV1KO8BWgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1958267819.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-lNf0GFN4Kbw/WYP3HcEI14I/AAAAAAAAT-k/si0CzbNYjTIQBZ0PCLVYF19Q-D8sgQmhgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-78366689.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-lNf0GFN4Kbw/WYP3HcEI14I/AAAAAAAAT-k/si0CzbNYjTIQBZ0PCLVYF19Q-D8sgQmhgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-78366689.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-bLzu8XBYgkY/WYP3E7eR4fI/AAAAAAAAT-g/sxdUTqpdX7QxBSlH5FD5u6lkWTDgb48AQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-970232094.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-bLzu8XBYgkY/WYP3E7eR4fI/AAAAAAAAT-g/sxdUTqpdX7QxBSlH5FD5u6lkWTDgb48AQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-970232094.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-81617692310639806762017-08-02T10:48:00.001+05:302017-08-02T12:37:42.303+05:30Southern Japan, South Korea In Trouble As Intensifying Typhoon NORU
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AUGUST 2, 2017, WEDNESDAY<br>
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Though no longer a super typhoon, NORU is causing shivers in Japan and South Korea. It is moving in a northwesterly direction and will begin to affect Japanese territory only after 2-3 days. But the sea surface temperature near the coast of Japan being warm at 31 degrees centigrade, this will prove like a booster dose of vitamins to the storm.</div>
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It is likely to pass by the island of Amami Oshima as a category 4 hurricane with winds in excess of 200 km/h, gusts upto 250 km/h.</div>
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Most forecast models, including the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, agree that NORU will slice through the numerous Japanese islands, between Kyushu and Okinawa. Then it will curve and move between the Japanese island of Kyushu and the southeastern coast of South Korea into the Sea of Japan.</div>
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The problem is it is going to take 2-3 days starting August 5 to do so. So in these 3 days it is going to affect southern Japan badly. Worst hit will be Kyushu island.</div>
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Many cities on the South Korean coast too will be affected, including Busan. </div>
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NORU is going to cause destruction with its strong winds, torrential rainfall and the rough high waves which the typhoon will whip up.</div>
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For folks in the Indian subcontinent, as long the west Pacific Ocean is hurling massive typhoons one after another, the Indian Ocean, especially the northern part, will remain subdued. So expect low monsoon activity in South Asia in the next few days. We have observed over the years that the west Pacific Ocean and northern Indian Ocean play a see-saw between them. When one is active, the other turns mild.</div>
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It is the western Pacific which is in active mode presently, with tropical cyclones NESAT, HAITANG and NORU (NORU ate up on other nearby storm called KULAP recently in the <b><a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Fujiwhara Effect</a></b>). Another one called NALGAE is brewing already and will sail past northern Japan in a few days. Indian monsoon is in a subdued mode as a result.</div>
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<b>Satellite image of typhoon NORU taken at 4:30 AM UTC, August 2, 2017.</b></div>
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<b>The expected track of typhoon NORU according to the Japanese Meteorological Agency, JMA.</b></div>
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<b>Track and intensity forecast of typhoon NORU by the JTWC.</b></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-43224828666203175942017-08-01T09:41:00.001+05:302017-08-02T10:32:56.597+05:30Typhoon NORU Threatens Japan<div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">AUGUST 1, 2017, TUESDAY </span></div><div><br></div><div>Typhoon NORU lay about 1100 kilometres SSE of the southern coast of Japan in north west Pacific Ocean.</div><div><br></div><div>It is a category 3 hurricane presently. It intensified to a super typhoon yesterday but weakened a little as it has a patch of drier air. But as it nears the moist air near the Japanese coast an intensification is imminent again.</div><div><br></div><div>Most forecast models predict a hit on southern Japan on August 6-7.</div><div><br></div><div>The GFS model envisages a storm with a central minimum pressure of below 900 hPa before impact. With wind speed in excess of 220 km/h, gusts upto 260 km/h.</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Qjw_x_oPGH0/WYAAWeeW-GI/AAAAAAAAT8g/ID2NcICO_n0t6DCDRIrwfW4itTEk9beCACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1137786625.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Qjw_x_oPGH0/WYAAWeeW-GI/AAAAAAAAT8g/ID2NcICO_n0t6DCDRIrwfW4itTEk9beCACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1137786625.jpg"></a></div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-85993647413344058532017-07-30T11:12:00.001+05:302017-07-30T11:50:26.442+05:30Taiwan's Agony: NESAT Yesterday, Tropical Storm HAITANG TodayJULY 30, 2017, SUNDAY<div><br></div><div>Storms seem to be acting like wolves nowadays. They hunt in packs. Take poor Taiwan for instance. Yesterday it was hammered by category 1 typhoon NESAT which after slicing horizontally through the country is now in Fujian province of mainland China. Today another tropical storm HAITANG has crept on Taiwan from the south and about to hit the southern coast.</div><div><br></div><div>HAITANG is a smaller storm, with sustained winds of 75 km/h, but gusting upto 120 km/h. Moreover it has a big rain throwing capacity. Taiwan already sustained a deluge yesterday. It cannot tolerate another deluge this man HAITANG is going to bring about.</div><div><br></div><div>This storm will traverse almost vertically through the country, exiting from northwest part of Taiwan after 9 long hours at about 3:00 PM UTC. It will cross the Taiwan strait and hit mainland China.</div><div><br></div><div>Worrying for Taiwan is that the heavy downpours will continue even HAITANG moves past. Our estimate is an astounding 400 mm of precipitation will occur in the next 24 hours in the southern half of Taiwan. Also this tropical storm will bring about wind gusts upto 140 km/h over the landmass of Taiwan. Especially the eastern half of the island country, thus increasing the possibility of devastation by wind too, besides the flooding rains.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-prbS7oQ85Uc/WX16clI-VdI/AAAAAAAAT8I/MeL9nCCo1iMLgDo7znfXEwA2X8rPMZwigCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--931682230.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-prbS7oQ85Uc/WX16clI-VdI/AAAAAAAAT8I/MeL9nCCo1iMLgDo7znfXEwA2X8rPMZwigCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--931682230.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-wAa_MgQcsNU/WX16XZSafsI/AAAAAAAAT8A/Zacb0_7_ZFQjAT-X07Qel72dsverCs5MgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1199057947.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-wAa_MgQcsNU/WX16XZSafsI/AAAAAAAAT8A/Zacb0_7_ZFQjAT-X07Qel72dsverCs5MgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1199057947.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-YP9pYKOr4j4/WX16aMepfWI/AAAAAAAAT8E/wj4aH8V1FtUVqY7-_4xbwI4YymsJpiNPwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1015418764.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-YP9pYKOr4j4/WX16aMepfWI/AAAAAAAAT8E/wj4aH8V1FtUVqY7-_4xbwI4YymsJpiNPwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1015418764.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>HAITANG WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS UPTO 130 KM/H IN TAIWAN </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-s-Q-ZaclN80/WX16faLsDVI/AAAAAAAAT8M/TwfAjfeRcEM0hAfVDmGl42pTqx_XrIfeQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1381621734.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-s-Q-ZaclN80/WX16faLsDVI/AAAAAAAAT8M/TwfAjfeRcEM0hAfVDmGl42pTqx_XrIfeQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1381621734.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>HEAVY RAINS, UPTO 400 MM, IS EXPECTED ON SOUTHERN TAIWAN OWING TO TROPICAL STORM HAITANG </b></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-91434955128303656032017-07-29T12:20:00.001+05:302017-07-29T12:35:12.585+05:30Typhoon NESAT Hammering Taiwan With 150 Kmph Sustained WindsJULY 29, 2017, SATURDAY <div><br></div><div>Powerful category 1 typhoon NESAT has already started battering the island nation of Taiwan with sustained wind speed of 150 km/h. Gusts are reaching an astounding 230 km/h.</div><div><br></div><div>The storm is expected to cut through the island in three hours by 12 noon UTC today. Landfall will be between Hualien and Yilan cities. On entering the Taiwan Strait it will intensify again and hit mainland China in Fujian province.</div><div><br></div><div>Almost all the parts of Taiwan will receive very heavy rainfall accompanied by powerful winds.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-nMboMCJ4cBQ/WXww345YvDI/AAAAAAAAT7Y/KMli0OUrZWIPHRMVWb-k8I1uCOn_ejE3wCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1387036258.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-nMboMCJ4cBQ/WXww345YvDI/AAAAAAAAT7Y/KMli0OUrZWIPHRMVWb-k8I1uCOn_ejE3wCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1387036258.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-NhCRcOZ8iJA/WXww6GqSmkI/AAAAAAAAT7c/wZ5FVzI08bo5yymaUkT4ux08A-nXQ6_OwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--2057391437.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-NhCRcOZ8iJA/WXww6GqSmkI/AAAAAAAAT7c/wZ5FVzI08bo5yymaUkT4ux08A-nXQ6_OwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--2057391437.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The central minimum pressure of the storm is 958 hPa.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-SsQK836SZHU/WXww1UvJTbI/AAAAAAAAT7U/YX5PL6qozG0oF7K7QluklP3VtgvxU0bfACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-62867208.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-SsQK836SZHU/WXww1UvJTbI/AAAAAAAAT7U/YX5PL6qozG0oF7K7QluklP3VtgvxU0bfACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-62867208.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Wind gusts are expected to reach 240 km/h before impact.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-kZBGwuP2ZaE/WXwzcKCNHVI/AAAAAAAAT7k/v_uDtFxDmDYK12ubCUMPPbn7Rkggx6GVgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1967543668.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-kZBGwuP2ZaE/WXwzcKCNHVI/AAAAAAAAT7k/v_uDtFxDmDYK12ubCUMPPbn7Rkggx6GVgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1967543668.jpg"></a></div><br></b></div><br></div><br></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-24506365306873489402017-07-29T10:49:00.001+05:302017-07-29T11:50:04.011+05:30Deluge In West Rajasthan Till July 30<div>UPDATE, JULY 29, 12 NOON IST</div><div><br></div><div>The low pressure system system over Rajasthan is rapidly weakening at a rate much faster than earlier expected. As a result the state will receive only heavy rains, not the very heavy rains earlier expected. Upto 3-4 inches expected in Jhalor, Jodhpur. Jaisalmer may only receive an inch or two.</div><div><br></div><div>Weather in Rajasthan will begin clearing rapidly from tomorrow itself.</div><div><br></div>JULY 29, 2017, SATURDAY <div><br></div><div>The low pressure area which today morning lies over east Rajasthan will weaken and move to northwest Rajasthan by late tonight. It will cease to be a significant system after that. But it is going to bring very heavy rains to many parts of west Rajasthan in the next 24 hours. Notably Jaisalmer.</div><div><br></div><div>Even parts of southeast Rajasthan, around Udaipur, will receive heavy falls till today evening.</div><div><br></div><div>After dissipating over NW Rajasthan it will bring moderate to heavy rains to Punjab province of Pakistan. It's effect on Sindh province will be nominal. Areas immediately bordering western Rajasthan will receive heavy falls. But rest of Sindh will benefit little. Badin, Hyderabad may receive upto 2-3 inches. Karachi just light showers.</div><div><br></div><div>Interestingly, Kutch may receive moderate rainfall on Sunday as a side effect.</div><div><br></div><div>The monsoon will become active over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal, Jammu in the coming few days. Northern parts of Punjab province in Pakistan will see increased rainfall activity too.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-T8mjwsW4xbc/WXwbkEW2GgI/AAAAAAAAT68/LRtdp52Bvfk_HcjIkATThOPvVCS2ZHhgwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--802557969.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-T8mjwsW4xbc/WXwbkEW2GgI/AAAAAAAAT68/LRtdp52Bvfk_HcjIkATThOPvVCS2ZHhgwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--802557969.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-l9ewgJs5LnU/WXwbm5dqKFI/AAAAAAAAT7A/f4CWhdbHE_cLKeKltBFZdljvgf-QcgviwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-234191341.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-l9ewgJs5LnU/WXwbm5dqKFI/AAAAAAAAT7A/f4CWhdbHE_cLKeKltBFZdljvgf-QcgviwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-234191341.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-88473329192653285162017-07-28T10:18:00.001+05:302017-07-28T11:52:43.433+05:30Rajasthan In For Heavy Rains Till Sunday<div><div>LATEST UPDATE ON RAJASTHAN CIRCULATION.....</div><div><br></div><div>Largest forecast data reveals that the weakened cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan, after bringing heavy rains to parts of Rajasthan will dissipate over northwest region of the state. No appreciable amount of rainfall is now expected in any part of Sindh province as predicted earlier.</div></div><div><br></div>JULY 28, 2017, FRIDAY<div><br></div><div>The low pressure area from eastern Madhya Pradesh now lies over western parts of the state. A cyclonic circulation is already present in central Rajasthan. On top of it another cyclonic circulation lies over Gujarat region.</div><div><br></div><div>What it means is very heavy rainfall is likely in many parts of Rajasthan in the next 48 hours. Jhalor, Pali, Jodhpur will receive the heaviest falls. After Monday the Madhya Pradesh low pressure system will wander off into north Rajasthan, Haryana. But with little rain effects accompanying it.</div><div><br></div><div>The rains will move into Sindh, Pakistan for the next two days. That is on Saturday, Sunday. 1-5 inches are expected in many places in the province.</div><div><br></div><div>The presence of three cyclonic circulations in the region has made the IMD apprehensive. It expects the situation may result in more heavy rains Gujarat. But we think, barring some districts in north Gujarat, the rain threat in Gujarat has receded.</div><div><br></div><div>Interestingly, the Rajasthan circulation after travelling through Sindh may still visit western Kutch on Sunday evening before dissipating.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-dZV6AMvUFgw/WXrEbEBeBBI/AAAAAAAAT6Y/mYOwna7WBYwDf71fBPAZJ2jMUjoHV16-gCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1957694107.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-dZV6AMvUFgw/WXrEbEBeBBI/AAAAAAAAT6Y/mYOwna7WBYwDf71fBPAZJ2jMUjoHV16-gCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1957694107.jpg"></a></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-86908912202804982122017-07-27T08:28:00.001+05:302017-07-27T12:34:21.320+05:30Rains In Gujarat Will Ease From Friday, Will Pour In Rajasthan For Next
3-4 Days<div><br></div><div>UPDATE, JULY 27, THURSDAY, 9:30 AM IST </div><div><br></div><div>Frankly, the present cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan has everybody confused. When it first arrived over Rajasthan and under its influence the deluge over Gujarat, Rajasthan began, none had expected it would sustain for so many days.</div><div><br></div><div>The present situation has left weathermen scratching their heads. It was expected that the system would weaken and move over to Kutch. It has not. Today morning it still hovers over central Rajasthan. With little sign of dissipating.</div><div><br></div><div>On top of that, the other depression presently over eastern Uttar Pradesh, is expected to arrive at Rajasthan in the next 48 hours. What if system 1 does not dissipate by the time system 2 arrives? </div><div><br></div><div>The possibility is mind boggling. A clash. The result? Another deluge over north Gujarat. More likely over Rajasthan. Many parts of Rajasthan are in for very heavy rainfall in the next 3-4 days.</div><div><br></div><div>Rains in ease in Gujarat by Saturday, possibly Friday. Barring an occasional shower heavy downpours are unlikely in the state from tomorrow.</div><div><br></div><div>Parts of Rajasthan may receive heavy rains in the next 3 days.</div><div><br></div><div>After that monsoon will take a break for at least 15 days.</div><div><br></div>JULY 27, 2017, THURSDAY <div><br></div><div><div>The present deluge in Ahmedabad is the dying gasps of the cyclonic circulation over north Gujarat.</div><div><br></div><div>It is spreading south into Surendranagar. Almost into Bhavnagar, Amreli. In the north the clouds stretch to Mahesana, Palanpur, Banaskantha. A big cluster of thunderstorms.</div><div><br></div><div>I have a feeling many places in Saurashtra, Rajkot included, is for heavy thunderstorms today afternoon.</div><div><br></div><div>It will bring rains to Kutch, parts of Saurashtra, north Gujarat for another 24 hours.</div><div><br></div><div>The system will dissipate tonight over Kutch.</div><div><br></div><div>But rains in north Gujarat will continue for another 2-3 days under the influence of the weakened cyclonic circulation which will arrive over Rajasthan. Mind you, this system is the second low pressure area, currently over Madhya Pradesh.</div><div><br></div><div>No significant rainfall is expected in Sindh or Karachi in the near future.</div></div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-M0IDjl5GhMQ/WXlYe34Y7hI/AAAAAAAAT6A/EQvg7Xt2E4ka9LfpPP24eh1PO65WCzt9gCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1638011856.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-M0IDjl5GhMQ/WXlYe34Y7hI/AAAAAAAAT6A/EQvg7Xt2E4ka9LfpPP24eh1PO65WCzt9gCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1638011856.jpg"></a></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-32363493693859156122017-07-25T10:28:00.001+05:302017-07-25T16:11:46.872+05:30Rains Will Move Into Kutch By Thursday<div>UPDATE, JULY 25, 1600 HOURS IST</div><div><br></div><div><div>The low pressure system has moved from south Rajasthan to central Rajasthan.</div><div><br></div><div>The European model expected this. It believes it will weaken and swing back to south Rajasthan by tomorrow then move though Kutch.</div><div><br></div><div>The GFS and the Indian Met. believes it will not. It will mean rapid clearing up of weather over Gujarat by Friday-Saturday (maybe even earlier) and no rainfall at all in Sindh. Just a shower in Kutch.</div><div><br></div><div>In short, the two are predicting diametrically opposite things.</div><div><br></div><div>Who will be right? </div><div><br></div><div>At stake are the reputations of the mighty ECMWF with the biggest weather supercomputers in the world on one side and the much vaunted weather analysis skills of the American NOAA on the other side.</div><div><br></div><div>What do you think?</div></div><div><br></div>,JULY 25, 2017, TUESDAY <div><br></div><div>The low pressure area over east Rajasthan will weaken into an upper air cyclonic circulation as it begins to move towards the Kutch-Sindh border areas. It is expected to dissipate by Friday evening.</div><div><br></div><div>What will be it's precipitation effects?</div><div><br></div><div>The next 36 hours will see heavy rains in the same areas of north Gujarat that have seen incessant rainfall in the previous 3 days. Banaskantha, Mahesana, Patan, Ahmedabad, Aravalli districts.</div><div><br></div><div>The action will shift to Kutch by late Wednesday night. Kutch may see heavy downpours on Thursday. There will a slight respite for Kutch on Friday, but more showers likely on Saturday under the influence of the other low pressure area presently over Jharkhand right now. Yes. That system, weakened into a cyclonic circulation will reach east Rajasthan by Friday. It will bring more showers to Kutch on Saturday.</div><div><br></div><div>In Saurashtra, Morbi, Surendranagar districts may receive heavy falls by Friday morning. Rajkot, Jamnagar upto 3 inches of rainfall.</div><div><br></div><div>Weather over entire Gujarat will clear up only on Sunday.</div><div><br></div><div>Rajasthan will receive rains under the influence of the two systems in the coming 5-6 days. But it will not be as extreme as in Gujarat. Far from it.</div><div><br></div><div>Entire Sindh province in Pakistan will see some showers on July 29-30.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-AbWu6LtkcIc/WXbRCIKNLbI/AAAAAAAAT5U/LTdeqFr6sGU1j_H4k-4yfsgGX1t6NbUbQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1430811838.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-AbWu6LtkcIc/WXbRCIKNLbI/AAAAAAAAT5U/LTdeqFr6sGU1j_H4k-4yfsgGX1t6NbUbQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1430811838.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-KdZCoST_rOk/WXbeAntYMAI/AAAAAAAAT5o/AQfc6NZqX-8NOTayTIiPOFJQ7XxMMxVwgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1387079928.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-KdZCoST_rOk/WXbeAntYMAI/AAAAAAAAT5o/AQfc6NZqX-8NOTayTIiPOFJQ7XxMMxVwgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1387079928.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>TOTAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN GUJARAT FROM JULY 25-AUGUST 1, 2017</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ZHUc9SXu0J0/WXbd8-i0sUI/AAAAAAAAT5k/nfkc-xzJpD0jkVEAf7oDq21Gs4PpTDGcQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-723223033.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ZHUc9SXu0J0/WXbd8-i0sUI/AAAAAAAAT5k/nfkc-xzJpD0jkVEAf7oDq21Gs4PpTDGcQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-723223033.jpg"></a></div><br></div><b>TOTAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN SINDH PROVINCE, PAKISTAN, IN PERIOD JULY 25-AUGUST 1.</b></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-2232442782131505642017-07-24T14:33:00.001+05:302017-07-24T14:45:27.383+05:30Heavy Rains In Gujarat Till July 27JULY 24, 2017, MONDAY<div><br></div><div>The low pressure area presently over south Rajasthan will still cause very heavy rainfall in north and northeast Gujarat in the next 48 hours. The districts affected will be Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Mahesana, Patan, Aravalli, Ahmedabad, Dahod, Mahisagar, Kheda, Anand.</div><div><br></div><div>The rains will begin to move to Kutch by Wednesday afternoon and may continue into Thursday, July 27. The system is expected to weaken and dissipate over northern Kutch-Sindh border regions by Friday.</div><div><br></div><div><div><i>Other possibilities are it moves north into Rajasthan (GFS) OR it moves into the Arabian Sea via Saurashtra on Thursday. (German model). This possibility says the system will retain its strength and will move towards northern Oman.</i></div><div><i><br></i></div><div><i>Only the German model predicts that the system will intensify into a deep depression as it enters the Arabian Sea off Kutch-Karachi coast.</i></div><div><i><br></i></div><div><i>The Indian Meteorological Department seems to think the system will move north into Rajasthan. In the latest morning bulletin today it predicts decreasing rains in Gujarat from Tuesday evening and heavy rains in Rajasthan.</i></div></div><div><br></div><div>As to the other low pressure system over India, in West Bengal..... It will move through Bihar, Jharkhand, northern Chattisgarh onto Madhya Pradesh in the coming days. It is at present expected to dissipate over northwest Madhya Pradesh by July 28.</div><div><br></div><div>West Bengal, Jharkhand, parts of Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh will receive the most precipitation from this system.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-zkLOjF9Rbio/WXW5Vcn5rjI/AAAAAAAAT44/rbd-OryIadgau5gdC3mH9_vsFq1e_UEngCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1898585251.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-zkLOjF9Rbio/WXW5Vcn5rjI/AAAAAAAAT44/rbd-OryIadgau5gdC3mH9_vsFq1e_UEngCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1898585251.jpg"></a></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-81194717058559239822017-07-23T12:05:00.001+05:302017-07-23T15:01:04.540+05:30Low Pressure To Affect Gujarat Till July 29?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
JULY 23, 2017, SUNDAY<br>
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There is a strong possibility that the current low pressure system over southeast Rajasthan is not going to dissipate in the next 2-3 days as widely expected but will briefly intensify and move over Kutch region of Gujarat again by Wednesday.</div>
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The Indian Meteorological Department believes presently that the system will affect north Gujarat for another 2-3 days and then the rainfall in decreasing amounts will shift to Rajasthan.</div>
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There is another possibility. The low pressure area instead of moving northeasterly and dissipating over northeast Rajasthan, INTENSIFIES BRIEFLY AND COMES BACK TO GUJARAT, OVER KUTCH BY WEDNESDAY. Then it dissipates by Thursday/Friday when over Kutch.</div>
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If that happens then what?</div>
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<b><i>Heavy rains continue in northeast Gujarat till Wednesday and then come back to crisis spots Banaskantha, Kutch, Morbi, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Surendranagar districts. Heavy rains expected in these areas on Wednesday, July 26 and Thursday, July 29.</i></b></div>
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<b><i>Ahmedabad may receive almost 4 inches of rain daily Sunday to Tuesday, possibly Wednesday. Worst affected will be Ahmedabad, Patan, Banaskantha, possibly northern parts of Surendranagar district.</i></b></div>
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Sindh will not benefit much even if this possibility does become reality.</div>
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<b><span style="color: red;">Meanwhile the Indian Meteorological Department has issued the highest red alert rainfall warning for entire Gujarat state on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.</span></b></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-19100327141465380632017-07-23T10:45:00.001+05:302017-07-23T10:50:29.475+05:30Low Pressure System Forming Over West BengalJULY 23, 2017, SUNDAY <div><br></div><div>The Bay of Bengal is in ferment. A low pressure area will crystallise over West Bengal by Sunday evening. That is today evening.</div><div><br></div><div>Very heavy rainfall will occur in Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha in the next 36 hours. The system will move through Jharkhand, northern chatt, northern Madhya Pradesh onto northern Rajasthan and dissipate by Thursday-Friday.</div><div><br></div><div>Most of heavy precipitation will occur in West Bengal, Jharkhand, northern Madhya Pradesh by Thursday.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-UjNfmCCJMd4/WXQyG-VKSBI/AAAAAAAAT4Q/rbyM4R43-vUAkiyf_mr5Xco9AZcX1DhXgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-528180276.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-UjNfmCCJMd4/WXQyG-VKSBI/AAAAAAAAT4Q/rbyM4R43-vUAkiyf_mr5Xco9AZcX1DhXgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-528180276.jpg"></a></div><br></div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-R4n0GJG_bt4/WXQxagYJBvI/AAAAAAAAT4I/J-uMC4R453sDBhkgoI6wrQ2YBmK6nyARgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--277059580.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-R4n0GJG_bt4/WXQxagYJBvI/AAAAAAAAT4I/J-uMC4R453sDBhkgoI6wrQ2YBmK6nyARgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--277059580.jpg"></a></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-82313879349505018332017-07-22T10:21:00.001+05:302017-07-22T14:44:43.719+05:30Flooding Rains Expected In North Gujarat Till Monday Eve<div>UPDATE, JULY 22, 2:00 PM IST </div><div><br></div><div><div>FORECAST FLASH.......</div><div><br></div><div>The low pressure system over Madhya Pradesh has begun to towards north Gujarat. It will reach by Saturday late night and will intensify. It will remain over north Gujarat-south Rajasthan border till Tuesday.</div><div><br></div><div>As the system is intensifying, THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VERY VIGOROUS OVER GUJARAT IN NEXT 48-72.</div><div><br></div><div>TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN ISOLATED AREAS OF THE STATE. HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINS IN OTHER AREAS.</div><div><br></div><div>THE SITUATION WILL REMAIN GRAVE TILL MONDAY.........SEVERE FLOODING IS A REAL POSSIBILITY......</div><div><br></div><div>In next 24 hours, till Sunday evening, 10 inches of rainfall expected in Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar city, 12 inches in Himmatnagar, 8 inches in Palanpur.</div></div><div><br></div><div>Heaviest rain expected in <b>Sabarkantha, Mahesana, Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad, Kheda, Surendranagar districts.</b></div><div><br></div>JULY 22, 2017, SATURDAY <div><br></div><div>Even as the low pressure area moves over north Gujarat-South Rajasthan, very heavy rainfall is expected in parts of the state in the next 72 hours.</div><div><br></div><div>Though all the regions of the state will receive rains in lesser or more amounts, the deluge is expected in north Gujarat and parts of Saurashtra till July 24 evening.</div><div><br></div><div>The following districts will receive more than 10 inches of rainfall.....</div><div><br></div><div>SABARKANTHA, BANASKANTHA, PATAN, MAHESANA, ARAVALLI, GANDHINAGAR, AHMEDABAD, ANAND, PARTS OF SURENDRANAGAR.</div><div><br></div><div>The cyclonic circulation will move over to Rajasthan on Monday but it's southwest quadrant having all the rain clouds, so rainfall will continue in Gujarat till July 27 intermittently.</div><div><br></div><div>In Rajasthan, the southern parts will receive very heavy rains in the coming 96 hours. Rains will also spill over to parts of Sindh province of Pakistan by Monday. Dabhri, Thatta, Mirpurkhas, Hyderabad may receive heavy showers in the coming days.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-dEWFx-fb8Pk/WXLZwemE9jI/AAAAAAAAT3w/B4_jjdKMw28SVj7V5OiMUwvr06AQlDTbACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-2038579821.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-dEWFx-fb8Pk/WXLZwemE9jI/AAAAAAAAT3w/B4_jjdKMw28SVj7V5OiMUwvr06AQlDTbACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-2038579821.jpg"></a></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-45083416986484972782017-07-21T09:39:00.001+05:302017-07-21T12:33:21.626+05:30Gujarat In For A Wet Spell Till July 25: FLOODING AWAITS BANASKANTHA,
PATAN.JULY 21, 2017, FRIDAY <div><br></div><div>The low pressure system from the Bay of Bengal is hovering over western Madhya Pradesh presently. In the coming 1-2 days it is expected to move over southern Rajasthan-North Gujarat region. On Monday it will wander north over to Rajasthan and dissipate by Wednesday.</div><div><br></div><div>Affecting the weather in Gujarat is another low pressure system presently hovering over Gujarat. But it is expected to dissolve in a day or two.</div><div><br></div><div>Under these influences intermittent showers are likely in Gujarat in the next 2-3 days. Some regions of the state will receive heavy to very heavy rainfall.</div><div><br></div><div>The rains will move to Rajasthan from Sunday. It will continue till Wednesday. But barring areas adjoining Gujarat the rains will not be very heavy.</div><div><br></div><div>Meanwhile another low pressure system will form over Bangladesh/West Bengal on Monday, July 24. Its track is at present not clear.</div><div><br></div><div>EXPECTED RAINFALL TILL TUESDAY MORNING </div><div><br></div><div><b>More than 6 inches. Some regions may receive upto 20-25 inches: </b>BANASKANTHA, SABARKANTHA, PATAN, MAHESANA, VADODARA, VALSAD, PARTS OF CENTRAL, SOUTH GUJARAT, PARTS OF AMRELI, JUNAGADH, KUTCH DISTRICTS.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Upto 6 inches: </b>RAJKOT, JUNAGADH, AHMEDABAD, SURENDRANAGAR, MORBI, PARTS OF CENTRAL, SOUTH GUJARAT.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Banaskantha, Mahesana, Patan, Sabarkantha, Aravalli districts are in for a deluge. THEY WILL RECEIVE CONTINUOUS RAINS ON SATURDAY, SUNDAY, MONDAY. TOTAL OF MORE THAN 30 INCHES IN 3 DAYS. ESPECIALLY BANASKANTHA, PATAN DISTRICTS.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>There is a good chance of very heavy rains in Morbi. Parts of Kutch and Surendranagar districts receiving 8-15 inches of rain by Monday morning.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-lpyjOFvT0E8/WXGDaQO4cFI/AAAAAAAAT3I/P9xcmmVIerIeruhhM9QYlFyaiwAD0EIigCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1900414420.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-lpyjOFvT0E8/WXGDaQO4cFI/AAAAAAAAT3I/P9xcmmVIerIeruhhM9QYlFyaiwAD0EIigCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1900414420.jpg"></a></div><br></b></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-82903258404376988002017-07-20T10:20:00.001+05:302017-07-20T18:19:10.753+05:30Fate of Bay Of Bengal Low Uncertain: Will Drench Rajasthan Or Gujarat?<div><b>UPDATE, JULY 20, 6:00PM IST </b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>The low pressure system presently over central Madhya Pradesh will move over north Gujarat by Saturday morning. It will remain stationary for 48 hours there and then weaken on Tuesday and move into Rajasthan and fade into insignificance.</b></div><b><div><b><br></b></div>July 20, 2017, Thursday </b><div><b><br></b></div><div>There is uncertainty as to which state will benefit more from the Bay of Bengal low pressure system hovering presently over Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan or Gujarat?</div><div><br></div><div>There is disagreement amongst leading forecast models as to what will happen. Let us outline the two alternate scenarios....</div><div><br></div><div>POSSIBILITY ONE: A much weaker system. It moves over to Rajasthan and then dissipates in next 3-4 days. Southeast Rajasthan gets the most rainfall. Udaipur region receives a deluge in the coming 48-72 hours. Entire Rajasthan gets moderate, heavy or very heavy rainfall till July 25.</div><div><br></div><div>Gujarat. North Gujarat receives heavy to very heavy rains. Aravalli, Mahesana, Banaskantha, Sabarkantha and perhaps Ahmedabad gets heavy rains. Amreli, Junagadh, Porbandar, Kutch districts receive heavy rains. Moderate to light rainfall in rest of Saurashtra.</div><div><br></div><div>POSSIBILITY TWO: Flooding. Flooding. The system strengthens over Gujarat. It moves to Gujarat and then to Rajasthan. <b>It hovers dangerously over Kutch for 48 hours, on Sunday, Monday.</b> In that case entire north, central, south Gujarat receive heavy rains. Parts of northern Saurashtra, Kutch receive very heavy rains. Parts of Sindh receives heavy rains on July 24-25. Heavy rains in southern Rajasthan. <i>We are talking here of possible flooding.</i></div><div><br></div><div>The coming 24 hours will give indications as to which of two scenario becomes reality. Rarely have models disagreed so violently. Moderate to heavy rains on one side. To heavy to very heavy flooding rainfall on the other side. </div><div><br></div><div>For instance the GFS gives Rajkot barely 2 inches on Friday. That is it. The ECMWF gives Rajkot 2 inches tomorrow, 6 inches on Saturday. Similarly GFS gives Ahmedabad 1 inch on Friday, 2 inches on Saturday. The ECMWF gives Ahmedabad 12 inches on Saturday. This shows the extreme difference of perception between the American and European models.</div><div><br></div><div><b><i>Gujarat faces a 50% chance of calamitous, flooding rainfall in the coming 3-4 days till July 25 morning. THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF MOST AREAS OF NORTH GUJARAT RECEIVING A TOTAL OF 25 INCHES OF RAINFALL TILL MORNING OF JULY 26. THE DISTRICTS ARE SABARKANTHA, BANASKANTHA, PATAN, MAHESANA, ARAVALLI, AHMEDABAD, ANAND.</i></b></div><div><br></div><div><b>We are tracking developments closely and will give regular updates. Keep in touch.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>WARNING FLASH, JULY 20, 3:30 PM.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><div>THE INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT HAS ISSUED THE HIGHEST LEVEL RED ALERT RAINFALL WARNING FOR GUJARAT, RAJASTHAN FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.</div><div><br></div><div>July 20: Konkan Goa, Madhya Maharashtra.</div><div>July 21: Gujarat Region, Saurashtra Kutch, East Rajasthan.</div><div>July 22: Gujarat Region, Saurashtra Kutch, East Rajasthan.</div><div>July 23: East Rajasthan, West Rajasthan.</div><div>July 24: West Rajasthan.</div></div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-uTd1IWgDd6M/WXCIpsx2eOI/AAAAAAAAT28/Fl9KxqhV73Up8TeoRqJ8ak0L1QIwnFFggCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-657911385.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-uTd1IWgDd6M/WXCIpsx2eOI/AAAAAAAAT28/Fl9KxqhV73Up8TeoRqJ8ak0L1QIwnFFggCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-657911385.jpg"></a></div><br></div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-kLTQk1kAVl8/WXA2gPrjJHI/AAAAAAAAT2w/H_6udBL4jy8dso_S_4ThXhOVnURSYAsRwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1024970237.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-kLTQk1kAVl8/WXA2gPrjJHI/AAAAAAAAT2w/H_6udBL4jy8dso_S_4ThXhOVnURSYAsRwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1024970237.jpg"></a></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-15368491802660295392017-07-18T10:35:00.001+05:302017-07-18T12:36:17.206+05:30FLOODING RAINS IN GUJARAT, MADHYA PRADESH IMMINENT: Bay Of Bengal
System: What Do The Models Predict? (July 18-25)LJULY 18, 2017, TUESDAY <div><br></div><div>The Bay of Bengal low pressure area has intensified into a depression and is expected to cross the Odisha coast tonight. That is the night of July 18-19. Where will it go? Which states of India will receive the most rainfall as the system moves through the country?</div><div><br></div><div>Let us see what leading global numerical weather prediction models have to say about it. All agree that it is going to rain heavily in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. After that there is some difference of opinion. Some say Gujarat will get the drenching. Some say southern Rajasthan. One of them says it will rain the heaviest in Sindh, Pakistan.</div><div><br></div><div><b>After analysing data from reliable models we arrive at the following conclusions.....</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>ANOTHER DELUGE OF 15-25 INCHES PARTS OF GUJARAT, SAURASHTRA BY JULY 24.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>MOST PARTS OF GUJARAT TO RECEIVE ATLEAST 4-5 INCHES.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>SOME PARTS OF MADHYA PRADESH, BHOPAL, INDORE IN FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS IN NEXT 3-4 DAYS.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>HEAVY RAINS IN MOST OF MADHYA PRADESH, SOUTHERN CHATTISGARH, SOUTHEAST RAJASTHAN. UDAIPUR AREA.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>FLOODS LIKELY IN MADHYA PRADESH, GUJARAT IN COMING 5-6 DAYS.</b></div><div><br></div><div>Let us start the analysis.....The forecast maps show the expected accumulated rainfall in the period July 18-25, 2017.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-3-DsFy7XohA/WW2ZjuORmFI/AAAAAAAAT2Q/CuEoCtZ3k-ARTQO9kaH1c5RbZkUjUTseACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--344757612.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-3-DsFy7XohA/WW2ZjuORmFI/AAAAAAAAT2Q/CuEoCtZ3k-ARTQO9kaH1c5RbZkUjUTseACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--344757612.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The Australian forecast model gives a deluge in southeast Rajasthan and northeast Gujarat. Besides, of course, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh before that.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-KvR4f97Ugwk/WW2ZXMRA2kI/AAAAAAAAT2E/qWRNajutN2odr6589ayCpNoRvqmoSY1VACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--890745367.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-KvR4f97Ugwk/WW2ZXMRA2kI/AAAAAAAAT2E/qWRNajutN2odr6589ayCpNoRvqmoSY1VACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--890745367.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The American GFS model gives most rains in central and western Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and northeast Gujarat. Almost identical to the Australian forecast.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ZbsqTXkuzsU/WW2ZcFkYwpI/AAAAAAAAT2I/wcWe2M42Nmsc_GjQ0mim5c4hv1YT7ULZwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-859910846.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ZbsqTXkuzsU/WW2ZcFkYwpI/AAAAAAAAT2I/wcWe2M42Nmsc_GjQ0mim5c4hv1YT7ULZwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-859910846.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The very reliable European model ECMWF gives entire Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch a deluge. 20-25 inches. Heavy rains in parts of Madhya Pradesh, southern Chattisgarh and Vidarbha in Maharashtra.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Rpb48xaM_OA/WW2ZgfDouEI/AAAAAAAAT2M/hJNkqXjkpC0FBFUrjXkBMIaHON9GdQiKQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-303872197.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Rpb48xaM_OA/WW2ZgfDouEI/AAAAAAAAT2M/hJNkqXjkpC0FBFUrjXkBMIaHON9GdQiKQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-303872197.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The German forecast model gives the most rainfall to Sindh, Pakistan. And also parts of Andhra, Telangana and Chattisgarh. Heavy rains also in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan. Gujarat gets little compared to the neighboring states. </b></div></div></div></div></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-71731535437452179402017-07-17T10:25:00.001+05:302017-07-17T18:42:47.251+05:30Two Low Pressure Systems May Hammer Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat By July End.<b>July 17, 2017, Monday </b><div><b><br></b></div><div>The monsoon God seems to have developed a soft corner for Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. After the massive rain thrower that hit the state dumping 18 inches of rain in Rajkot city in Gujarat, forecast models hint at two more rain systems hitting the states in the coming fortnight, one after another.</div><div><br></div><div>SYSTEM ONE: The low has already formed in northeastern Bay of Bengal. By Friday it will cross over the Odisha/Andhra coast. By Friday it will be hitting Madhya Pradesh hard. It will move west towards southern Rajasthan, then suddenly curve towards Gujarat by July 24, 2017. Models differ as to its track slightly but there is a chance of another deluge in Gujarat with some areas of Saurashtra/Kutch receiving upto a mammoth 25 inches of rain by Monday, July 24.</div><div><br></div><div><b>As the system moves west in coming days many areas in the following states may receive very heavy rainfall. That is above 5 inches. The states are </b>ODISHA, CHATTISGARH, MADHYA PRADESH, SOUTHERN RAJASTHAN, NORTH GUJARAT, and possibly SAURASHTRA, KUTCH regions of GUJARAT.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Gujarat may receive the heaviest falls as the system is going to intensify when it arrives over the state on July 22. Also it is going to hover over Gujarat for the following two days after that. Add these factors and it adds upto big trouble for the state. Some areas in north Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch may receive 15-30 inches of rainfall in the period July 22-24, 2017.</b></div><div><br></div><div>SYSTEM TWO: Likely to form over Bangladesh/West Bengal on July 25/26, this powerful low may move through Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh onto Rajasthan by July end. Even this system according to US agency NOAA is going to bring a deluge to Gujarat.</div><div>------------</div><div><i>FLASH FORECAST FOR <b>MUMBAI......</b>HEAVY RAINS LIKELY </i></div><div><i><b><br></b></i></div><div><i>It is going to rain heavily on the Indian west coast, especially in Konkan and the metropolis of Mumbai. The city is in for incessant heavy rains in the coming 7-8 days. Some estimates say the total rainfall in coming days could add up to 16-25 inches by July 25.</i></div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-kUlG-2_j0J0/WWxHXmVMUfI/AAAAAAAAT1o/EndiOvEKHiYB3uE-OUSlHoGvVgo7SxRxgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1860272043.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-kUlG-2_j0J0/WWxHXmVMUfI/AAAAAAAAT1o/EndiOvEKHiYB3uE-OUSlHoGvVgo7SxRxgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1860272043.jpg"></a></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-56142798386737599692017-07-17T08:27:00.001+05:302017-07-17T09:16:31.161+05:30July 17, 8:20 AM, IST: Powerful Thunderstorms In Gujarat, Bay of BengalThe latest lightning and thunderstorms detector satellite image taken at 8:10 AM, IST today, Monday shows a cluster of powerful thunderstorms developing in Jamnagar district of Gujarat. <div><br></div><div>Notice the low pressure system developing in the Bay of Bengal. The system is expected to move through Odisha, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and onto Gujarat by July 23.</div><div><br></div><div>Rainfall activity is strong also in central Uttar Pradesh, southern Chattisgarh, Haryana.</div><div><br></div><div>HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING FOR 24 HOURS ENDING JULY 18, 8:30 AM</div><div><br></div><div><b>Kutch, Jamnagar districts of GUJARAT, parts of SOUTH GUJARAT, KONKAN, NORTHERN ANDHRA PRADESH, TELANGANA. SOUTHERN ODISHA, CHATTISGARH, EASTERN MADHYA PRADESH, VIDARBHA.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>Heavy to very heavy rainfall possible in Kutch district of Gujarat and in parts of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh.</b></div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-emnIkpf3oZE/WWwoO8svNsI/AAAAAAAAT1Y/xMQSz7k9W94Ls9WznNvLCQBBo3Bvq42ggCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--765588205.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-emnIkpf3oZE/WWwoO8svNsI/AAAAAAAAT1Y/xMQSz7k9W94Ls9WznNvLCQBBo3Bvq42ggCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--765588205.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-2cCN7AO1zxo/WWwoRZAEbjI/AAAAAAAAT1c/sQwEe6kdFskbOP-YEQDa3bXbghQiQ69GgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-327394852.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-2cCN7AO1zxo/WWwoRZAEbjI/AAAAAAAAT1c/sQwEe6kdFskbOP-YEQDa3bXbghQiQ69GgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-327394852.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-34224700866418453602017-07-15T07:46:00.001+05:302017-07-15T10:58:27.907+05:30Jamnagar, Rajkot, Coastal Kutch To Face Deluge Till MondayJULY 15, 2017, SATURDAY <div><br></div><div>The low pressure system now over north Gujarat is hammering parts of Saurashtra the most. Notably Rajkot district. It has received 12 inches of rain till today morning. <b><i>The rains in the area will continue for another 12-24 hours. Our guess is Rajkot city rainfall in two days should touch 20 inches. </i></b></div><div><b><i><br></i></b></div><div>FLASH...... THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM MADHYA PRADESH IS OVER NORTH GUJARAT NOW....AT 0330 GMT.....IT WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE COMING 6 HOURS INTO A DEPRESSION. AND REMAIN SO TILL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER WHICH IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. ...... VERY HEAVY RAINS ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS IS LIKELY IN JAMNAGAR DISTRICT TILL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.....TORRENTIAL RAINS POSSIBLE IN THIS DISTRICT IN NEXT 24 HOURS </div><div><br></div><div>In the coming 48 hours, till July 17 morning, Monday morning, the following areas will face continuing heavy rains. JAMNAGAR, DWARKA, KUTCH, PATAN, SABARKANTHA DISTRICTS.</div><div><br></div><div>The rest of the state will receive rains in the coming 48 hours but it will not be so heavy. SEE RAIN FORECAST MAP BELOW....</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Ro1jdUqWchU/WWl7D9A-IzI/AAAAAAAAT0s/69lIKzh47goKqhnXOgtzbwdQuLVRzXnwwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1240971918.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Ro1jdUqWchU/WWl7D9A-IzI/AAAAAAAAT0s/69lIKzh47goKqhnXOgtzbwdQuLVRzXnwwCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1240971918.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>The satellite image at 7 AM, Saturday, shows heavy rain clouds over Rajkot, Surendranagar, Morbi, Junagadh districts.</b></div><br></div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-3mBWFlrIUNs/WWl7BTNQNlI/AAAAAAAAT0o/TKPEVoM16rgTn4g5qjCdKaXv0MPFWyBIgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1368001980.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-3mBWFlrIUNs/WWl7BTNQNlI/AAAAAAAAT0o/TKPEVoM16rgTn4g5qjCdKaXv0MPFWyBIgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-1368001980.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>RAIN FORECAST TILL MONDAY EVENING: The map shows flood hazards in Jamnagar districts till Monday evening. This district may receive upto 20 inches of rain.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><br></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-WM44UgAIZ2Y/WWmQwSlTT3I/AAAAAAAAT08/O6aGG-Ftx9AsYuQa2W6IaX8BapAO5gkzgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1880519522.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-WM44UgAIZ2Y/WWmQwSlTT3I/AAAAAAAAT08/O6aGG-Ftx9AsYuQa2W6IaX8BapAO5gkzgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--1880519522.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This lightning/thunderstorms detector satellite image at 9:05 AM, July 15, IST, shows powerful thunderstorms hitting Jamnagar district as predicted.</div><br></b></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-36496867095049863702017-07-14T15:21:00.001+05:302017-07-14T17:13:28.609+05:30GFS PREDICTS FLOODING RAIN IN SAURASHTRA, KUTCH IN NEXT 72
HOURS:Opinions Differ On The Upcoming Gujarat Rain SystemJULY 14, 2017, FRIDAY <div><br></div><div><div>FORECAST FLASH......</div><div><br></div><div>Most models including the European model say the cyclonic circulation over Madhya Pradesh will not intensify much but pass through north Gujarat, Kutch and weaken, maybe dissipate after that by Monday.</div><div><br></div><div>Only the GFS model ( as does the Indian Meteorological Department) predicts that it will strengthen into a powerful depression tomorrow when over north Gujarat. And that it will remain a depression even on Sunday. It will abruptly weaken on Monday on entering Sindh.</div><div><br></div><div>IF THE EUROPEAN MODEL+ ARE RIGHT...</div><div><br></div><div>It means heavy rains mostly in Banaskantha, Patan, Kutch districts in the next 72 hours. Moderate rains, not heavy, in Ahmedabad, Rajkot and in other parts of Saurashtra.</div><div><br></div><div>IF THE GFS IS RIGHT.....</div><div><br></div><div>It will mean very heavy rains in Saurashtra, north Gujarat, parts of Kutch, Ahmedabad, Rajkot. In short the forecast we have made till now.....</div><div><br></div><div>The next 72 hours will tell who is proved right.</div></div><div><br></div><div><b>Latest GFS data issued at 0600 hours UTC July 14, still confirms that the low pressure system due in Gujarat on Saturday will intensify into a powerful depression on Saturday, Sunday. That means many areas in Kutch, Saurashtra, north Gujarat are in for very heavy rains till Monday. SEE FORECAST MAP BELOW.....</b><i>The figures in the map are in mm of rainfall.</i></div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-TEqxjojME_8/WWiqhDgoRpI/AAAAAAAAT0U/EGmXBQHRAhk1Fw0chF5W1FJvixEC92poACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-32533310.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-TEqxjojME_8/WWiqhDgoRpI/AAAAAAAAT0U/EGmXBQHRAhk1Fw0chF5W1FJvixEC92poACHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-32533310.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>Latest GFS forecast predicts heaviest rains in Saurashtra till Monday night. Districts of Rajkot, Jamnagar, Surendranagar, Morbi, Porbandar, Kutch.</b></div><br></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-34642952407258209872017-07-14T10:12:00.001+05:302017-07-14T12:31:42.575+05:30Parts of Saurashtra, Kutch, N. Gujarat To Receive Deluge By July 17JULY 14, 2017, FRIDAY <div><br></div><div>The low pressure system presently over western Madhya Pradesh is likely to arrive over north Gujarat by tomorrow. The Indian Meteorological Department has issued a red alert warning of very heavy rainfall for the entire state of Gujarat on July 15, 2017.</div><div><br></div><div>The question is will it rain heavily in the entire state in the next 2-3 days? The answer is no. It will rain very heavily only in pockets of the state, while rest will receive medium rainfall.</div><div><br></div><div>But heavy rains where?</div><div><br></div><div>This is a difficult question to answer as low pressure systems are difficult to predict. The track. More importantly which quadrant of the system will throw down the maximum rains. Because this means a difference of 2 inches and 20 inches.</div><div><br></div><div>Most models feel the system will move through north Gujarat and Kutch (some pockets of northern Saurashtra) and then abruptly weaken on July 16, after a sudden but brief intensification tomorrow.</div><div><br></div><div>There is instead a strong possibility that the system may move slightly diagonally from Palanpur (where it is raining heaviest presently) to Dwarka. Thus the areas between these two towns will receive the most deluge, that is 20-25 inches in the next 3 days.</div><div><br></div><div>We maybe proved wrong but our forecast is the following areas will receive the heaviest rains. PATAN, SABARKANTHA, MORBI, GANDHIDHAM, MANDVI, JAMNAGAR, DWARKA. All more than 20 inches.</div><div><br></div><div>According to these estimates Ahmedabad will receive 4-5 inches, Rajkot 4-5 inches, Vadodara 4-5 inches, Junagadh 3-4 inches, Surendranagar 5-6 inches, Anand 5-6 inches, Bhuj 3-4 inches.</div><div><br></div><div>GIVEN BELOW IS THE ESTIMATED RAINFALL IN SOME CITIES OF GUJARAT BY THE GFS MODEL</div><div><br></div><div><b>6 inches in Ahmedabad likely by Saturday morning.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>5-6 inches of rain in Rajkot on Saturday.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>4 inches of rain in Bhuj by Monday.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>10 inches in Morbi on Saturday.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>10 inches in Jamnagar by Monday morning.</b></div><div><br></div><div><b>4 inches in Surat by Monday morning.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>6 inches in Vadodara, Anand by Saturday morning.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>10 inches in Junagadh by Monday morning.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>6-8 inches in Amreli by Monday morning.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>4 inches in Bhavnagar by Monday morning.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><b>9 inches in Surendranagar by Monday morning.</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-D7pKZ413pqw/WWhOX9459GI/AAAAAAAATz4/RDVMATdDvgItSir05SV6rpHnKNvfLWQ9QCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-810726335.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-D7pKZ413pqw/WWhOX9459GI/AAAAAAAATz4/RDVMATdDvgItSir05SV6rpHnKNvfLWQ9QCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image-810726335.jpg"></a></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5875622157550475046.post-67329084746035773032017-07-13T18:29:00.001+05:302017-07-13T18:45:00.883+05:30Gujarat Stares At Floods As Big Rain System To Affect Friday To SundayJULY 13, 2017, THURSDAY <div><br></div><div>This is a weather system that authorities the world over fear and hate. The powerful well marked low pressure area with its phenomenal amounts of rainfall it brings with it.</div><div><br></div><div>One such system is presently hovering over western Madhya Pradesh. And it is preparing to assault Gujarat from midnight or early hours of Friday, July 14.</div><div><br></div><div>It will enter from Dahod-Godhra region of central Gujarat. By Friday morning, Vadodara and Anand will be hit by a deluge lasting for hours. By noon Ahmedabad, by night Surendranagar. Rajkot, Morbi will wake up on Saturday morning to see the monster is on it. By Saturday evening, it will be knocking on the doors of Kutch districts.</div><div><br></div><div>Some forecast models predict that the low pressure system will mover over Kutch very slowly. For 24 hours. Till Sunday late night. Hence heaviest of the rains will fall in that district. Bhuj, Gandhidham, Mandvi, Naliya, Nakhatrana. All can expect more than 10 inches of rain till July 17 morning.</div><div><br></div><div>Our estimate is the areas that will receive the heaviest rainfall are, Central Gujarat ( Vadodara, Anand), North Gujarat (All districts, Ahmedabad included). Rajkot, Surendranagar, Morbi districts of Saurashtra and of course Kutch district.</div><div><br></div><div>The European model includes Jamnagar, Junagadh, Porbandar, Dwarka, Somnath districts in the heavy rainfall list.</div><div><br></div><div>All these areas will receive at least 10 inches of rainfall till Monday, July 17, 2017.</div><div><br></div><div>Estimates by different forecast models differ radically for rainfall expected in major cities of Gujarat in the period July 14-16.</div><div><br></div><div>RAJKOT: 4-19 inches</div><div>AHMEDABAD: 2-12 inches.</div><div>VADODARA: 4-18 inches.</div><div>BHUJ: 3-12 inches.</div><div>JUNAGADH: 3-12 inches.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-3C_Cdv_05gg/WWdyR5TDL7I/AAAAAAAATzk/sQF0nGWfT-IUTVQaAdDuOF6uPZ6RKvxqgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--263650573.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-3C_Cdv_05gg/WWdyR5TDL7I/AAAAAAAATzk/sQF0nGWfT-IUTVQaAdDuOF6uPZ6RKvxqgCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--263650573.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-9gZP_MC0ZAM/WWdyUVDKv2I/AAAAAAAATzo/laEpafQn5A4C9Cb6dolsmgeAfPgdB1OQQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--191522347.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-9gZP_MC0ZAM/WWdyUVDKv2I/AAAAAAAATzo/laEpafQn5A4C9Cb6dolsmgeAfPgdB1OQQCHMYCw/s640/blogger-image--191522347.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0