NOAA has said that there is a 90% chance of El Nino staying late summer, 80% chance that this unwanted guest would linger on throughout 2015. We all know El Nino is a bad guy who adversely affects the Indian Monsoons.
Well that was the bad news.
The good news? EQUINOO. You might say what on earth is that?
The full form is Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation. The so-called Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). What is it?
It is a phenomenon that influences the Indian monsoon. It involves the Indian Ocean waters near the coast of Somalia and also near Indonesia. If the Somalian waters are warmer and stormier than the Indonesian waters then it is called a Positive IOD.
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| THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD) |
A positive IOD is good news for the Indian monsoons. And it is positive now. The coast near Somalia has been stormy for quite many days and it is likely to stay that way for many more days. (SEE FORECAST CHARTS BELOW)
So a bad El Nino might be nullified by a positive IOD and we will get a bumper monsoon.
Below are the Indian Ocean Dipole forecast charts for June, August and October 2015. They are expected to be most positive in October. Heavy rains then?
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