No Cyclone For Now In Arabian Sea

There is disappointing news for cyclone enthusiasts. Latest forecasts indicate that the possibility of a storm developing in the Arabian Sea is receding.

We had earlier portended that cyclone Chapala was imminent in the Arabian Sea on September 20, 2015. Latest data from the GFS model rules out this possibility.

The European Model denies even a low pressure in the Arabian Sea.

But a low pressure in the Bay of Bengal is very much in the cards. This low will be born within a couple of days. The ECMWF model is bearish on this system. It might throw down a lot of rain in Andhra and Telangana but then it expects it to fizzle out.

The GFS model is much more bullish. We stand by our earlier forecast of the Bay of Bengal low moving across Andhra, Telangana, Maharashtra and then rejuvenating in the Arabian Sea on September 20, 2015.

So lots of rain on Konkan coast and Mumbai around then. The low in the Arabian Sea will then move to coastal Saurashtra around September 22, but the chances of this low developing into a cyclone seems remote for now.

But what we say now may change in the coming days, so taking today's forecast as gospel truth would be a mistake. We are just reporting the trends. Anything can happen on September 20, 2015.

We notice another low developing in the Arabian Sea around September 25. A cyclone perhaps? But more on that as the situation develops.

Now some good news and some bad news.

The bad news is bad boy El Nino is still very strong even in September. It screwed up the Indian monsoon rains in 2015.

The good news is Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is strongly positive presently. A positive IOD means good rains and storms in North Indian Ocean.

Bad news. El Nino is still strong in September

Good news! Indian Ocean Dipole very positive presently

EQUINOO Will Bring A Good 2015 Monsoon For India?

NOAA has said that there is a 90% chance of El Nino staying late summer, 80% chance that this unwanted guest would linger on throughout 2015. We all know El Nino is a bad guy who adversely affects the Indian Monsoons.

Well that was the bad news.

The good news? EQUINOO. You might say what on earth is that?

The full form is Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation. The so-called Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). What is it?

It is a phenomenon that influences the Indian monsoon. It involves the Indian Ocean waters near the coast of Somalia and also near Indonesia. If the Somalian waters are warmer and stormier than the Indonesian waters then it is called a Positive IOD.

THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD)

A positive IOD is good news for the Indian monsoons. And it is positive now. The coast near Somalia has been stormy for quite many days and it is likely to stay that way for many more days. (SEE FORECAST CHARTS BELOW)

So a bad El Nino might be nullified by a positive IOD and we will get a bumper monsoon.

Below are the Indian Ocean Dipole forecast charts for June, August and October 2015. They are expected to be most positive in October. Heavy rains then?