There is disappointing news for cyclone enthusiasts. Latest forecasts indicate that the possibility of a storm developing in the Arabian Sea is receding.
We had earlier portended that cyclone Chapala was imminent in the Arabian Sea on September 20, 2015. Latest data from the GFS model rules out this possibility.
The European Model denies even a low pressure in the Arabian Sea.
But a low pressure in the Bay of Bengal is very much in the cards. This low will be born within a couple of days. The ECMWF model is bearish on this system. It might throw down a lot of rain in Andhra and Telangana but then it expects it to fizzle out.
The GFS model is much more bullish. We stand by our earlier forecast of the Bay of Bengal low moving across Andhra, Telangana, Maharashtra and then rejuvenating in the Arabian Sea on September 20, 2015.
So lots of rain on Konkan coast and Mumbai around then. The low in the Arabian Sea will then move to coastal Saurashtra around September 22, but the chances of this low developing into a cyclone seems remote for now.
But what we say now may change in the coming days, so taking today's forecast as gospel truth would be a mistake. We are just reporting the trends. Anything can happen on September 20, 2015.
We notice another low developing in the Arabian Sea around September 25. A cyclone perhaps? But more on that as the situation develops.
Now some good news and some bad news.
The bad news is bad boy El Nino is still very strong even in September. It screwed up the Indian monsoon rains in 2015.
The good news is Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is strongly positive presently. A positive IOD means good rains and storms in North Indian Ocean.
We had earlier portended that cyclone Chapala was imminent in the Arabian Sea on September 20, 2015. Latest data from the GFS model rules out this possibility.
The European Model denies even a low pressure in the Arabian Sea.
But a low pressure in the Bay of Bengal is very much in the cards. This low will be born within a couple of days. The ECMWF model is bearish on this system. It might throw down a lot of rain in Andhra and Telangana but then it expects it to fizzle out.
The GFS model is much more bullish. We stand by our earlier forecast of the Bay of Bengal low moving across Andhra, Telangana, Maharashtra and then rejuvenating in the Arabian Sea on September 20, 2015.
So lots of rain on Konkan coast and Mumbai around then. The low in the Arabian Sea will then move to coastal Saurashtra around September 22, but the chances of this low developing into a cyclone seems remote for now.
But what we say now may change in the coming days, so taking today's forecast as gospel truth would be a mistake. We are just reporting the trends. Anything can happen on September 20, 2015.
We notice another low developing in the Arabian Sea around September 25. A cyclone perhaps? But more on that as the situation develops.
Now some good news and some bad news.
The bad news is bad boy El Nino is still very strong even in September. It screwed up the Indian monsoon rains in 2015.
The good news is Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is strongly positive presently. A positive IOD means good rains and storms in North Indian Ocean.
 |
| Bad news. El Nino is still strong in September |
 |
| Good news! Indian Ocean Dipole very positive presently |
No comments:
Post a Comment