No Cyclone For Now In Arabian Sea

There is disappointing news for cyclone enthusiasts. Latest forecasts indicate that the possibility of a storm developing in the Arabian Sea is receding.

We had earlier portended that cyclone Chapala was imminent in the Arabian Sea on September 20, 2015. Latest data from the GFS model rules out this possibility.

The European Model denies even a low pressure in the Arabian Sea.

But a low pressure in the Bay of Bengal is very much in the cards. This low will be born within a couple of days. The ECMWF model is bearish on this system. It might throw down a lot of rain in Andhra and Telangana but then it expects it to fizzle out.

The GFS model is much more bullish. We stand by our earlier forecast of the Bay of Bengal low moving across Andhra, Telangana, Maharashtra and then rejuvenating in the Arabian Sea on September 20, 2015.

So lots of rain on Konkan coast and Mumbai around then. The low in the Arabian Sea will then move to coastal Saurashtra around September 22, but the chances of this low developing into a cyclone seems remote for now.

But what we say now may change in the coming days, so taking today's forecast as gospel truth would be a mistake. We are just reporting the trends. Anything can happen on September 20, 2015.

We notice another low developing in the Arabian Sea around September 25. A cyclone perhaps? But more on that as the situation develops.

Now some good news and some bad news.

The bad news is bad boy El Nino is still very strong even in September. It screwed up the Indian monsoon rains in 2015.

The good news is Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is strongly positive presently. A positive IOD means good rains and storms in North Indian Ocean.

Bad news. El Nino is still strong in September

Good news! Indian Ocean Dipole very positive presently

Two Storm Systems To Propel Monsoons To Indian Hinterland In A Week

Two low pressure areas (Perhaps tropical depressions) likely to form one each in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea within the next three days will propel monsoons into the Indian interiors.

BAY OF BENGAL LOW TOMORROW, ARABIAN SEA SYSTEM TO FORM ON FRIDAY, JUNE 19, 2015.

The Bay of Bengal low will become well marked by tomorrow. In a couple of days it will turn into a deep depression and enter Andhra and Telangana. Very heavy rains have started in the coastal areas of Andhra which will increase as the system intensifies in the next 48 hours.

It is expected to move through Telangana, northern Maharashtra, western Madhya Pradesh and perhaps into Gujarat by June 23, 2015.

The low in the Arabian Sea will form on Friday, June 19, 2015. It will form just south of the Saurashtra Coast and just hover around in the same area for the next three days. There are chances this system may intensify into a depression. It will make landfall into Saurashtra on June 23, 2015, Tuesday and then move though North Gujarat into southeastern Rajasthan.

It will reach Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh by Friday.

For the uninitiated, please note that a low pressure area and depression are very akin to a tropical cyclone, only the winds are much less. But they are big rain makers.

So we see that within a week heavy rains will occur in Andhra, Telangana, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi, western Uttar Pradesh in the coming seven days because of these two rainmaker systems.

Forecast models hint at another 'low' hitting West Bengal after a week. But that's for later.

THIS SATELLITE IMAGE (JUNE 17, 2015, 0630 GMT) SHOWS THE MONSOON BUILDUP PRESENTLY

Indian Monsoons To Intensify Soon: Depression Off Andhra Coast On June 20, 2015

The monsoons are going to intensify rapidly in the coming few days with the formation of a depression in the Bay Of Bengal on June 20, 2015.

The intensification will be two pronged. The depression in the Bay of Bengal on June 20. And the formation of a low/cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea soon.

Let us discuss in details.

DEEP DEPRESSION OFF ANDHRA COAST JUNE 20, 2015

The low pressure area near the Andhra coast has already formed. It will intensify into a depression (May be a deep depression) by June 20.

It will move through Andhra, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh in the following days.

Very to very heavy rainfall expected in these states after June 20, 2015.

The system will swing north into Rajasthan-western Uttar Pradesh on June 24, 2015.

HEAVY RAINS IN GUJARAT, SINDH LIKELY IN A WEEK

A low is expected to form in the Arabian Sea after June 20, 2015. It will start off as a trough off the Mumbai coast and then organize itself in  low around June 22.

This will further intensify into a depression and move through Gujarat and then enter Sindh in Pakistan.

Very heavy precipitation is expected in these area after June 22, 2015.

It is possible the system may not organize into a low but remain a upper air cyclonic circulation. But it will be a big rain maker.

Presently both major computer models are supporting heavy rains in western India after June 20. The GFS predicts a track of Saurashtra-Kutch-Sindh. The European model says it will move towards Mumbai-South Gujarat.

Image credit

Imminent Arabian Sea 'Low' Will Propel Monsoons

On the monsoon front the news are disheartening. Monsoon 2015 has left top meteorological agencies perplexed and professional weather forecasters have gone into a shell.

Things may change soon. Forecast models predict a low pressure area forming in the east central Arabian Sea on around June 5-6, 2015. This low pressure area or depression (Some models also say may be a cyclone) will rejuvenate the monsoon rains.

Increased rainfall is expected in Kerala and Karnataka from June 3, 2015, which will further intensify with the formation of the aforementioned low. If that low does occur, the rains may reach Maharashtra coast within days after that.

It all depends on where the low decides to go. If it sticks close to the Indian west coast, then the rains will reach Mumbai by June 10. Otherwise the rains will go to Gujarat or Sindh (Some say even Oman). SEE XWF-WEATHER INDICATIONS

Looks like we have very wet stormy weather ahead after June 5, 2015. It all depends on the Arabian Sea 'low'.

Read Arabian Sea Storm Possibilities And Latest Updates
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RAINFALL FORECAST FOR INDIA TILL JUNE 5, 2015

In the next three days the rains will be active mainly in Tamil Nadu. Very heavy rainfall is forecast for the entire state in the next 48 hours.

After June 3, 2015, the rains will gradually move westwards towards Karnataka coast. The formation of a low pressure area off the coast on June 5, 2015 will lead to heavy precipitation in coastal Karnataka from June 5, 2015. The rain will spread to southern Maharashtra coast and the entire west coast of Indian by June 6.

So we see a rejuvenation of monsoons from June 4.

THE MAP SHOWS TOTAL RAINFALL FROM JUNE 1 TO JUNE 6, 2015. THE MONSOONS WILL PICK UP IN A DAY OR TWO.