The Indian monsoon is withdrawing but storm activity has begun in the Bay of Bengal with a low pressure area forming. This system is going to hover around near the Andhra coast for the next 5 days bringing rains to peninsular India especially in Odisha, Andhra, Telangana and northern Karnataka.
The low will then traverse west through India and hop into the Arabian Sea on September 18, 2015. Increased rainfall is expected in Konkan coast by then.
The low in the Arabian Sea may intensify into a depression and will move close by the coast of Saurashtra till September 24.
After that it will swing back into the open sea and move to northeastern coast of Oman. It will be gradually weakening all that time so Oman may expect some showers by September 27.
The European Model too supports increased storm activity near the Konkan coast around September 18-20, but it is not as hopeful as the GFS that the system will intensify much.
The European model envisages another Bay of Bengal low/depression moving through Odisha, Chattisgarh, Bihar and onto Uttar Pradesh around September 22, but the GFS stays mum on the forecast.
So we see different forecasts by two computer models.
The point they agree upon is... A Bay of Bengal low pressure moving west reaching Arabian Sea around September 19, 2015. The rest is differing predictions.
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