The depression 99B that has formed in the Bay of Bengal and presently flooding Odisha has stamina. If forecasts are to be believed this system is not only to bring heavy rains to Chattisgarh, southern Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, northern Maharashtra, South and central Gujarat, and Saurashtra in the next 5 days but will in fact intensify from a 997 Mb storm to a 994 Mb storm when it hovers over Saurashtra on September 21, 2015.
It has just crossed the Odisha coast and bringing heavy precipitation to the region. In the next 72 hours it is going to reach Gujarat. On September 20, 2015 it will move onto Saurashtra and then hover over the region for a day or two and then abruptly move towards western Rajasthan and onto Haryana, Delhi and even Kashmir. Heavy rains are expected in these states till September 26.
The above was the American NCEP forecast. The European forecast differs on the track for the low pressure 99B. It predicts it will move into Sindh after Saurashtra and move north right through Pakistan. if the ECMWF model proves to be accurate then Pakistan is in for very heavy rains from September 22 onwards. And the system is expected to traverse throughout the country.
But that possibility seems to be receding. The latest data from the model says 99B will suddenly weaken on September 22, 2015 as it leaves Saurashtra and enters the Arabian Sea and then drift back through northwest Gujarat into Rajasthan and further into northern India before dissipating.
Wherever it goes 99B has a lot of energy and it will flood many areas before it peters out. And that is not expected for another 10 days.
Keep in touch for latest forecasts for 99B. It has the computer models confused and they have been giving out different track forecasts with successive bulletins.
Big rain-maker system 99B needs to be closely monitored.
See Detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps
Track The Storm
It has just crossed the Odisha coast and bringing heavy precipitation to the region. In the next 72 hours it is going to reach Gujarat. On September 20, 2015 it will move onto Saurashtra and then hover over the region for a day or two and then abruptly move towards western Rajasthan and onto Haryana, Delhi and even Kashmir. Heavy rains are expected in these states till September 26.
The above was the American NCEP forecast. The European forecast differs on the track for the low pressure 99B. It predicts it will move into Sindh after Saurashtra and move north right through Pakistan. if the ECMWF model proves to be accurate then Pakistan is in for very heavy rains from September 22 onwards. And the system is expected to traverse throughout the country.
But that possibility seems to be receding. The latest data from the model says 99B will suddenly weaken on September 22, 2015 as it leaves Saurashtra and enters the Arabian Sea and then drift back through northwest Gujarat into Rajasthan and further into northern India before dissipating.
Wherever it goes 99B has a lot of energy and it will flood many areas before it peters out. And that is not expected for another 10 days.
Keep in touch for latest forecasts for 99B. It has the computer models confused and they have been giving out different track forecasts with successive bulletins.
Big rain-maker system 99B needs to be closely monitored.
See Detailed Rainfall Forecast Maps
Track The Storm
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| Depression/low 99B over Odisha. Latest satellite image taken at 0400 GMT, September 16, 2015 |
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